10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $19.7B | $23.0B | $25.5B | $26.7B | $29.0B |
| EBIT | -$1.2B | -$1.4B | -$1.5B | $133M | $1.8B |
| Tax | -$59M | -$69M | -$76M | $7M | $89M |
| NOPAT | -$1.1B | -$1.3B | -$1.4B | $126M | $1.7B |
| + Depreciation | $1.6B | $1.9B | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.4B |
| - Capex | $3.8B | $3.7B | $3.2B | $2.4B | $1.2B |
| - Δ NWC | $179M | $186M | $49M | $62M | $84M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$3.5B | -$3.2B | -$2.6B | -$143M | $2.9B |
| Discount Factor | 0.897 | 0.722 | 0.581 | 0.468 | 0.338 |
| Present Value | -$3.1B | -$2.3B | -$1.5B | -$67M | $965M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 9.46% | $-27.71 | $-25.46 | $-22.86 | $-19.82 | $-16.23 |
| 10.46% | $-38.32 | $-36.72 | $-34.91 | $-32.83 | $-30.44 |
| 11.46% | $-47.01 | $-45.84 | $-44.53 | $-43.05 | $-41.38 |
| 12.46% | $-54.25 | $-53.37 | $-52.40 | $-51.32 | $-50.11 |
| 13.46% | $-60.37 | $-59.69 | $-58.95 | $-58.14 | $-57.24 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Consumer Cyclical Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth9.97%
Year 3 Revenue Growth8.76%
Year 5 Revenue Growth1.96%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.38%
Year 10 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin-5.97%
Terminal EBIT Margin27.37%
Tax Rate5.00%
Historical Capex / Rev19.33%
Terminal Capex / Rev4.00%
NWC / Revenue10.00%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 20x EV/EBITDA (Consumer Cyclical sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.