10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $8.0B | $8.8B | $9.9B | $10.7B | $11.8B |
| EBIT | $799M | $886M | $990M | $1.3B | $1.6B |
| Tax | $175M | $194M | $216M | $278M | $346M |
| NOPAT | $624M | $692M | $773M | $993M | $1.2B |
| + Depreciation | $258M | $286M | $319M | $348M | $383M |
| - Capex | $196M | $218M | $243M | $265M | $292M |
| - Δ NWC | $301M | $142M | $165M | $148M | $109M |
| Free Cash Flow | $384M | $619M | $685M | $929M | $1.2B |
| Discount Factor | 0.908 | 0.748 | 0.616 | 0.508 | 0.380 |
| Present Value | $349M | $463M | $422M | $471M | $462M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% | 3.75% |
|---|
| 8.17% | $199.87 | $212.49 | $227.43 | $245.41 | $267.45 |
| 9.17% | $170.24 | $178.84 | $188.77 | $200.39 | $214.14 |
| 10.17% | $148.55 | $154.65 | $161.57 | $169.49 | $178.64 |
| 11.17% | $132.19 | $136.65 | $141.64 | $147.27 | $153.65 |
| 12.17% | $119.55 | $122.90 | $126.60 | $130.72 | $135.32 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Consumer Cyclical Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth12.40%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.92%
Year 5 Revenue Growth5.12%
Year 7 Revenue Growth4.17%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.75%
Terminal Growth Rate2.75%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin10.04%
Tax Rate21.86%
Capex / Revenue2.47%
NWC / Revenue34.30%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.