10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $37.2B | $40.6B | $43.1B | $46.7B | $50.5B |
| EBIT | $5.9B | $6.4B | $6.8B | $7.4B | $8.0B |
| Tax | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.5B |
| NOPAT | $4.8B | $5.2B | $5.5B | $6.0B | $6.4B |
| + Depreciation | $2.2B | $2.4B | $2.5B | $2.8B | $3.0B |
| - Capex | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.3B | $2.5B |
| - Δ NWC | $136M | $151M | $187M | $155M | $89M |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.0B | $5.4B | $5.7B | $6.3B | $6.8B |
| Discount Factor | 0.934 | 0.815 | 0.711 | 0.620 | 0.505 |
| Present Value | $4.7B | $4.4B | $4.1B | $3.9B | $3.5B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 5.06% | $91.29 | $96.44 | $103.27 | $112.77 | $126.86 |
| 6.06% | $77.38 | $80.35 | $84.04 | $88.77 | $95.04 |
| 7.06% | $67.22 | $69.08 | $71.32 | $74.04 | $77.44 |
| 8.06% | $59.32 | $60.56 | $62.02 | $63.73 | $65.79 |
| 9.06% | $52.91 | $53.79 | $54.78 | $55.93 | $57.27 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Energy Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth4.22%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.30%
Year 5 Revenue Growth5.07%
Year 7 Revenue Growth3.84%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin15.76%
Tax Rate19.02%
Historical Capex / Rev4.93%
NWC / Revenue9.00%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Energy sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.