5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $9.1B | $9.1B | $9.3B | $9.8B | $10.2B |
| EBIT | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.6B |
| Tax | $903M | $905M | $925M | $972M | $1.0B |
| NOPAT | $543M | $545M | $557M | $585M | $608M |
| + Depreciation | $336M | $337M | $344M | $361M | $376M |
| - Capex | $961M | $964M | $985M | $1.0B | $1.1B |
| - Δ NWC | -$112M | $3M | $19M | $46M | $39M |
| Free Cash Flow | $29M | -$86M | -$104M | -$135M | -$132M |
| Discount Factor | 0.948 | 0.898 | 0.852 | 0.807 | 0.765 |
| Present Value | $27M | -$77M | -$89M | -$109M | -$101M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 3.50% | $-98.68 | $-98.11 | $-97.55 | $-97.00 | $-96.46 |
| 4.50% | $-92.03 | $-98.11 | $-97.55 | $-97.00 | $-96.46 |
| 5.50% | $-84.46 | $-87.25 | $-91.15 | $-97.00 | $-96.46 |
| 6.50% | $-80.29 | $-81.85 | $-83.87 | $-86.55 | $-90.31 |
| 7.50% | $-77.66 | $-78.65 | $-79.85 | $-81.36 | $-83.30 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth-11.14%
Year 2 Revenue Growth0.31%
Year 3 Revenue Growth2.18%
Year 4 Revenue Growth5.05%
Year 5 Revenue Growth4.04%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin15.94%
Tax Rate62.44%
Capex / Revenue10.60%
NWC / Revenue9.81%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.