Tapestry, Inc.TPRNYSE

Overview Intelligence Charts News Fundamentals Key Metrics TTM Financials Earnings Growth Rating Analysts Institutional Peers Historical

DCF Valuation

DCF Valuation Summary

Strong Sell

Fair Value: $90.00 per share(market-calibrated)

-42.5%

Upside to Fair Value

Current

$156.42

Pure Model

$67.86

Fair Value

$90.00

Bull Case

$86.10

Bear Case

$50.62

Market Reality Check

Model Terminal Growth

3.00%

Market-Implied Growth

Unreachable

Calibrated Growth

75/25 blend

Market price implies assumptions beyond model range. Fair value blends 75% model / 25% market price.

What's Driving This Ratingfor TPR

✓

CapEx already efficient

CapEx at 1.78% of revenue is already at or below sector maintenance level. No normalization needed — cash conversion is already strong.

⚠

Analyst growth decelerates sharply

Revenue growth drops from 11.42% in Year 1 to 3.00% by Year 5 (per analyst consensus). This growth deceleration is a key reason the model may undervalue the stock if growth re-accelerates.

↔

Perpetuity and exit methods disagree

Perpetuity growth gives $52.28/share (13.4x terminal FCF) while exit multiple gives $83.44/share (26.4x terminal FCF). The 20x EV/EBITDA exit reflects current market multiples, while the perpetuity method with 3.00% growth is more conservative. The base case averages both methods.

⚠

Market price exceeds model's maximum

Even with the most optimistic terminal growth the model allows, it can't reach $156.42. The market is pricing in factors beyond the DCF framework — possibly optionality, brand premium, or expectations of margin/growth inflection not yet in analyst estimates.

✓

Strong cash flow conversion

Year 10 FCF/EBITDA conversion of 75.79% indicates efficient cash generation. FCF reaches $1.4B by Year 10 (13.35% FCF margin).

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%

Beta (β)1.61

Market Risk Premium4.50%

*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)

Cost of Equity (Re)11.74%

Cost of Debt

Pre-tax Cost of Debt1.89%

Tax Rate15.22%

After-tax Cost of Debt1.60%

Equity Weight (E/V)89.69%

Debt Weight (D/V)10.31%

WACC Calculation

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))

WACC = (89.69% × 11.74%) + (10.31% × 1.60%)

= 10.69%

10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)

Year	Year 1	Year 3	Year 5	Year 7	Year 10
Revenue	$7.8B	$8.7B	$9.3B	$9.8B	$10.8B
EBIT	$1.1B	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.4B	$1.6B
Tax	$172M	$191M	$204M	$217M	$237M
NOPAT	$958M	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1.2B	$1.3B
+ Depreciation	$246M	$272M	$292M	$310M	$338M
- Capex	$139M	$154M	$166M	$176M	$192M
- Δ NWC	$76M	$40M	$26M	$27M	$30M
Free Cash Flow	$988M	$1.1B	$1.2B	$1.3B	$1.4B
Discount Factor	0.903	0.737	0.602	0.491	0.362
Present Value	$893M	$840M	$745M	$645M	$520M

FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital

Terminal Value Calculation

Perpetuity Growth Method

Year 10 FCF$1.4B

Terminal Growth Rate3.00%

WACC10.69%

TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)

Terminal Value$19.2B

PV of Terminal Value$7.0B

Exit Multiple Method

Year 10 EBITDA$1.9B

Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)20.0x

TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple

Terminal Value$37.9B

PV of Terminal Value$13.7B

Valuation Summary

Perpetuity Growth Method

PV of Projected FCFs$7.2B

PV of Terminal Value$7.0B

Enterprise Value$14.1B

(-) Net Debt$2.8B

Equity Value$11.3B

Shares Outstanding217M

Price per Share$52.28

Exit Multiple Method

PV of Projected FCFs$7.2B

PV of Terminal Value$13.7B

Enterprise Value$20.9B

(-) Net Debt$2.8B

Equity Value$18.1B

Shares Outstanding217M

Price per Share$83.44

Pure Model Fair Value

$67.86

Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods (before market calibration)

Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share

WACC ↓ / Growth →	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%	4.00%
8.69%	$83.26	$85.15	$87.36	$90.01	$93.22
9.69%	$73.76	$75.06	$76.56	$78.30	$80.34
10.69%	$65.87	$66.80	$67.86	$69.06	$70.43
11.69%	$59.17	$59.86	$60.62	$61.48	$62.46
12.69%	$53.39	$53.91	$54.48	$55.11	$55.82

How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Scenario Analysis

Bear Case

$50.62

-67.6% vs current

• -25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 2.5%
• Beta: 2.01

Base Case

$67.86

-56.6% vs current

• Analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.0%
• Beta: 1.61

Bull Case

$86.10

-45.0% vs current

• +25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.5%
• Beta: 1.37

Key Assumptions & Drivers• Consumer Cyclical Sector

Growth Assumptions (Select Years)

Year 1 Revenue Growth11.42%

Year 3 Revenue Growth5.13%

Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%

Year 7 Revenue Growth3.00%

Year 10 Revenue Growth3.00%

Terminal Growth Rate3.00%

Margin & Efficiency

Current EBIT Margin14.46%

Tax Rate15.22%

Historical Capex / Rev1.78%

NWC / Revenue9.50%

Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.

Institutional-Grade Methodology

Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta

Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 20x EV/EBITDA (Consumer Cyclical sector)

This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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