10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $17.1B | $19.7B | $21.1B | $22.1B | $23.6B |
| EBIT | $4.4B | $5.1B | $4.7B | $4.3B | $4.1B |
| Tax | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.0B |
| NOPAT | $3.3B | $3.8B | $3.5B | $3.2B | $3.1B |
| + Depreciation | $2.8B | $3.2B | $3.4B | $3.6B | $3.8B |
| - Capex | $4.2B | $4.8B | $5.1B | $5.4B | $5.8B |
| - Δ NWC | $24M | $33M | $11M | $12M | $12M |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.9B | $2.2B | $1.7B | $1.4B | $1.1B |
| Discount Factor | 0.910 | 0.753 | 0.624 | 0.516 | 0.389 |
| Present Value | $1.7B | $1.6B | $1.1B | $717M | $427M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.25% | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% |
|---|
| 7.90% | $36.25 | $46.74 | $59.08 | $73.82 | $91.73 |
| 8.90% | $11.14 | $18.36 | $26.67 | $36.32 | $47.68 |
| 9.90% | $-7.38 | $-2.22 | $3.62 | $10.27 | $17.92 |
| 10.90% | $-21.42 | $-17.63 | $-13.39 | $-8.63 | $-3.26 |
| 11.90% | $-32.32 | $-29.46 | $-26.30 | $-22.80 | $-18.89 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Industrials Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth6.31%
Year 3 Revenue Growth7.47%
Year 5 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.25%
Terminal Growth Rate2.25%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin25.97%
Tax Rate25.28%
Capex / Revenue24.37%
NWC / Revenue2.39%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.