10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $109.9B | $125.5B | $158.5B | $172.3B | $186.4B |
| EBIT | $5.6B | $6.4B | $8.0B | $13.0B | $18.1B |
| Tax | $1.4B | $1.6B | $2.0B | $3.3B | $4.6B |
| NOPAT | $4.2B | $4.7B | $6.0B | $9.7B | $13.5B |
| + Depreciation | $2.4B | $2.8B | $3.5B | $3.8B | $4.1B |
| - Capex | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $1.8B |
| - Δ NWC | -$464M | $478M | $286M | $237M | $132M |
| Free Cash Flow | $6.0B | $5.8B | $7.7B | $11.6B | $15.7B |
| Discount Factor | 0.932 | 0.811 | 0.705 | 0.613 | 0.496 |
| Present Value | $5.6B | $4.7B | $5.4B | $7.1B | $7.8B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 5.25% | $870.02 | $920.24 | $985.89 | $1,075.38 | $1,204.59 |
| 6.25% | $734.82 | $764.31 | $800.72 | $846.84 | $907.14 |
| 7.25% | $635.92 | $654.73 | $677.13 | $704.23 | $737.70 |
| 8.25% | $559.25 | $571.96 | $586.70 | $604.01 | $624.61 |
| 9.25% | $497.43 | $506.39 | $516.58 | $528.28 | $541.85 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Energy Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth-10.43%
Year 3 Revenue Growth11.76%
Year 5 Revenue Growth5.25%
Year 7 Revenue Growth3.95%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin5.06%
Terminal EBIT Margin12.00%
Tax Rate25.26%
Historical Capex / Rev0.97%
NWC / Revenue3.62%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Energy sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.