10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $7.4B | $8.1B | $8.6B | $9.1B | $10.0B |
| EBIT | -$522M | -$565M | -$14M | $384M | $798M |
| Tax | -$107M | -$115M | -$3M | $78M | $163M |
| NOPAT | -$416M | -$449M | -$12M | $305M | $635M |
| + Depreciation | $704M | $761M | $812M | $862M | $942M |
| - Capex | $340M | $357M | $370M | $382M | $398M |
| - Δ NWC | $31M | $32M | $25M | $27M | $29M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$82M | -$77M | $405M | $759M | $1.1B |
| Discount Factor | 0.938 | 0.827 | 0.728 | 0.641 | 0.530 |
| Present Value | -$77M | -$64M | $295M | $487M | $609M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 4.55% | $178.12 | $213.52 | $205.91 | $192.64 | $180.00 |
| 5.55% | $116.80 | $132.50 | $154.35 | $186.85 | $180.00 |
| 6.55% | $78.96 | $87.44 | $98.31 | $112.73 | $132.81 |
| 7.55% | $52.36 | $57.49 | $63.74 | $71.54 | $81.53 |
| 8.55% | $32.18 | $35.51 | $39.45 | $44.17 | $49.92 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Consumer Cyclical Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth4.35%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.14%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Year 7 Revenue Growth3.00%
Year 10 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin-7.01%
Terminal EBIT Margin16.21%
Tax Rate20.42%
Historical Capex / Rev4.56%
Terminal Capex / Rev4.00%
NWC / Revenue10.00%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 20x EV/EBITDA (Consumer Cyclical sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.