Wynn Resorts, LimitedWYNNNASDAQ

Overview Intelligence Charts News Fundamentals Key Metrics TTM Financials Earnings Growth Rating Analysts Institutional Peers Historical

DCF Valuation

⚠️Model Warnings

•Terminal value represents 86% of enterprise value. Valuation highly sensitive to long-term assumptions.

DCF Valuation Summary

Hold

Fair Value: $98.95 per share(market-calibrated)

-4.3%

Upside to Fair Value

Current

$103.44

Pure Model

$98.31

Fair Value

$98.95

Bull Case

$149.46

Bear Case

$57.61

Market Reality Check

Model Terminal Growth

3.00%

Market-Implied Growth

3.17%

Calibrated Growth

3.03%

Fair value uses 85% model / 15% market-implied terminal growth. Pure model: $98.31.

What's Driving This Ratingfor WYNN

↓

CapEx normalizing toward maintenance

Historical CapEx is 4.56% of revenue (heavy investment phase). Model fades this to 4.00% by Year 10, freeing up ~$56M in annual FCF. This is the biggest driver of long-term cash flow improvement.

↑

Margin expansion modeled

Current EBIT margin is -7.01% — below the sector mature average of 16.21%. Model expands margins as the business scales and operating leverage kicks in. Year 10 EBIT reaches $798M (8.01% margin).

→

Moderate revenue growth

Analyst consensus projects 4.35% revenue growth, fading to 3.00% by Year 10. Revenue reaches $10.0B (vs $7.1B today).

✓

Model and market roughly agree

Market-implied terminal growth of 3.17% is close to the model's 3.00% (only 17bps apart). The DCF assumptions are well-aligned with how the market is pricing this stock.

✓

Strong cash flow conversion

Year 10 FCF/EBITDA conversion of 66.07% indicates efficient cash generation. FCF reaches $1.1B by Year 10 (11.54% FCF margin).

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%

Beta (β)1.01

Market Risk Premium4.50%

*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)

Cost of Equity (Re)9.06%

Cost of Debt

Pre-tax Cost of Debt5.46%

Tax Rate20.42%

After-tax Cost of Debt4.34%

Equity Weight (E/V)46.84%

Debt Weight (D/V)53.16%

WACC Calculation

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))

WACC = (46.84% × 9.06%) + (53.16% × 4.34%)

= 6.55%

10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)

Year	Year 1	Year 3	Year 5	Year 7	Year 10
Revenue	$7.4B	$8.1B	$8.6B	$9.1B	$10.0B
EBIT	-$522M	-$565M	-$14M	$384M	$798M
Tax	-$107M	-$115M	-$3M	$78M	$163M
NOPAT	-$416M	-$449M	-$12M	$305M	$635M
+ Depreciation	$704M	$761M	$812M	$862M	$942M
- Capex	$340M	$357M	$370M	$382M	$398M
- Δ NWC	$31M	$32M	$25M	$27M	$29M
Free Cash Flow	-$82M	-$77M	$405M	$759M	$1.1B
Discount Factor	0.938	0.827	0.728	0.641	0.530
Present Value	-$77M	-$64M	$295M	$487M	$609M

FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital

Terminal Value Calculation

Perpetuity Growth Method

Year 10 FCF$1.1B

Terminal Growth Rate3.00%

WACC6.55%

TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)

Terminal Value$33.3B

PV of Terminal Value$17.7B

Exit Multiple Method

Year 10 EBITDA$1.7B

Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)20.0x

TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple

Terminal Value$34.8B

PV of Terminal Value$18.4B

Valuation Summary

Perpetuity Growth Method

PV of Projected FCFs$2.9B

PV of Terminal Value$17.7B

Enterprise Value$20.5B

(-) Net Debt$10.7B

Equity Value$9.8B

Shares Outstanding104M

Price per Share$94.54

Exit Multiple Method

PV of Projected FCFs$2.9B

PV of Terminal Value$18.4B

Enterprise Value$21.3B

(-) Net Debt$10.7B

Equity Value$10.6B

Shares Outstanding104M

Price per Share$102.08

Pure Model Fair Value

$98.31

Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods (before market calibration)

Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share

WACC ↓ / Growth →	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%	4.00%
4.55%	$178.12	$213.52	$205.91	$192.64	$180.00
5.55%	$116.80	$132.50	$154.35	$186.85	$180.00
6.55%	$78.96	$87.44	$98.31	$112.73	$132.81
7.55%	$52.36	$57.49	$63.74	$71.54	$81.53
8.55%	$32.18	$35.51	$39.45	$44.17	$49.92

How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Scenario Analysis

Bear Case

$57.61

-44.3% vs current

• -25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 2.5%
• Beta: 1.27

Base Case

$98.31

-5.0% vs current

• Analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.0%
• Beta: 1.01

Bull Case

$149.46

44.5% vs current

• +25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.5%
• Beta: 0.86

Key Assumptions & Drivers• Consumer Cyclical Sector

Growth Assumptions (Select Years)

Year 1 Revenue Growth4.35%

Year 3 Revenue Growth4.14%

Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%

Year 7 Revenue Growth3.00%

Year 10 Revenue Growth3.00%

Terminal Growth Rate3.00%

Margin & Efficiency

Current EBIT Margin-7.01%

Terminal EBIT Margin16.21%

Tax Rate20.42%

Historical Capex / Rev4.56%

Terminal Capex / Rev4.00%

NWC / Revenue10.00%

Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.

Institutional-Grade Methodology

Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta

Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 20x EV/EBITDA (Consumer Cyclical sector)

This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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