10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $5.8B | $6.2B | $8.8B | $11.1B | $13.0B |
| EBIT | $493M | $530M | $750M | $1.1B | $1.5B |
| Tax | $103M | $111M | $157M | $237M | $314M |
| NOPAT | $389M | $419M | $592M | $893M | $1.2B |
| + Depreciation | $501M | $539M | $763M | $967M | $1.1B |
| - Capex | $1.5B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.3B | $519M |
| - Δ NWC | $82M | $19M | $166M | $145M | $37M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$682M | -$364M | -$228M | $459M | $1.8B |
| Discount Factor | 0.909 | 0.752 | 0.622 | 0.514 | 0.387 |
| Present Value | -$620M | -$274M | -$142M | $236M | $678M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.25% | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% |
|---|
| 7.96% | $114.27 | $118.75 | $124.01 | $130.28 | $137.89 |
| 8.96% | $95.95 | $99.04 | $102.59 | $106.71 | $111.55 |
| 9.96% | $81.17 | $83.38 | $85.88 | $88.72 | $91.99 |
| 10.96% | $68.95 | $70.58 | $72.40 | $74.44 | $76.75 |
| 11.96% | $58.68 | $59.91 | $61.27 | $62.77 | $64.45 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Basic Materials Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth12.24%
Year 3 Revenue Growth2.47%
Year 5 Revenue Growth17.07%
Year 7 Revenue Growth11.14%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.25%
Terminal Growth Rate2.25%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin8.54%
Terminal EBIT Margin13.00%
Tax Rate21.00%
Historical Capex / Rev25.82%
Terminal Capex / Rev4.00%
NWC / Revenue12.96%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Basic Materials sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.