5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $5.9B | $6.9B | $8.3B | $15.6B | $16.1B |
| EBIT | $2.6B | $3.1B | $3.7B | $6.9B | $7.1B |
| Tax | $402M | $471M | $567M | $1.1B | $1.1B |
| NOPAT | $2.2B | $2.6B | $3.1B | $5.9B | $6.0B |
| + Depreciation | $153M | $179M | $216M | $408M | $420M |
| - Capex | $40M | $47M | $57M | $107M | $110M |
| - Δ NWC | -$62M | $100M | $140M | $733M | $47M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.4B | $2.6B | $3.1B | $5.4B | $6.3B |
| Discount Factor | 0.919 | 0.844 | 0.775 | 0.712 | 0.654 |
| Present Value | $2.2B | $2.2B | $2.4B | $3.9B | $4.1B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 6.87% | $455.78 | $507.99 | $573.69 | $658.88 | $773.74 |
| 7.87% | $365.14 | $399.10 | $440.04 | $490.34 | $553.63 |
| 8.87% | $301.64 | $325.22 | $352.81 | $385.54 | $425.00 |
| 9.87% | $254.90 | $272.05 | $291.70 | $314.43 | $341.03 |
| 10.87% | $219.21 | $232.14 | $246.70 | $263.24 | $282.19 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth-9.54%
Year 2 Revenue Growth17.16%
Year 3 Revenue Growth20.45%
Year 4 Revenue Growth88.77%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin44.48%
Tax Rate15.43%
Capex / Revenue0.69%
NWC / Revenue10.00%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.