5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $15.7B | $19.3B | $20.9B | $14.1B | $14.5B |
| EBIT | $8.6B | $10.7B | $11.5B | $7.7B | $8.0B |
| Tax | $1.4B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.2B | $1.3B |
| NOPAT | $7.3B | $9.0B | $9.7B | $6.5B | $6.7B |
| + Depreciation | $65M | $81M | $87M | $59M | $61M |
| - Capex | $158M | $195M | $211M | $142M | $146M |
| - Δ NWC | $1.1B | $2.2B | $952M | -$4.2B | $256M |
| Free Cash Flow | $6.1B | $6.6B | $8.6B | $10.6B | $6.4B |
| Discount Factor | 0.899 | 0.809 | 0.728 | 0.655 | 0.589 |
| Present Value | $5.5B | $5.4B | $6.3B | $6.9B | $3.8B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 9.18% | $96.03 | $102.03 | $109.00 | $117.20 | $126.99 |
| 10.18% | $83.94 | $88.36 | $93.39 | $99.18 | $105.90 |
| 11.18% | $74.62 | $77.98 | $81.75 | $86.01 | $90.87 |
| 12.18% | $67.26 | $69.88 | $72.78 | $76.02 | $79.66 |
| 13.18% | $61.31 | $63.39 | $65.69 | $68.22 | $71.02 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth13.27%
Year 2 Revenue Growth23.50%
Year 3 Revenue Growth8.10%
Year 4 Revenue Growth-32.75%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin55.08%
Tax Rate15.69%
Capex / Revenue1.01%
NWC / Revenue60.74%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.