How do I set a price alert for CF?

To set a CF price alert on Stock Alarm Pro, navigate to the CF quote page, select "Set Alert," choose your trigger type (price target, % move, RSI level, MACD, or volume breakout), and set your delivery channel. Stock Alarm Pro supports instant push notifications, SMS, and automated phone call alerts.

Can I get phone call alerts for CF?

Yes. Stock Alarm Pro provides real-time automated phone call alerts for CF. Phone call alerts ensure you are immediately awakened or interrupted during critical volatility events, overnight earnings moves, or strict stop-loss levels when silent push notifications might be overlooked.

What types of alerts can I set for CF Industries?

Stock Alarm Pro supports over 125 trigger types for CF: price target alerts (above/below target), intraday percentage moves, RSI overbought/oversold levels, 50-day and 200-day moving average crossovers (golden cross / death cross), relative volume (RVOL) spikes, confirmed earnings date releases, and SEC Form-4 insider transaction filings.

How quickly will I be notified about CF price changes?

CF alerts are evaluated continuously in real-time against live market telemetry. Notifications are dispatched within sub-second latency via push notifications, SMS, or phone calls as soon as your trigger condition is met across regular, pre-market, and after-hours trading sessions.

Is Stock Alarm Pro free to use for CF alerts?

Yes, Stock Alarm Pro offers a free tier that includes 3 active price alerts for CF and other stocks. Full Pro membership is $20/month or $168/year with a 7-day free trial, unlocking unlimited alerts, phone call delivery, SMS, all 125+ technical indicators, institutional screeners, and real-time market telemetry across web, iOS, and Android.

CF Company Intelligence - Business Model, Drivers & Risks

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.(CF)

$116.04—

WatchlistAsk AI Chart

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.(CF)

NYSEAbout this data

$116.04—

WatchlistAsk AI Chart Studio

CF(CF)

CF Industries is the world's largest nitrogen fertilizer producer, operating five nitrogen complexes in North America (Donaldsonville LA, Port Neal IA, Courtright ON, Yazoo City MS, Verdigris OK) with 10 million tons of gross ammonia capacity. The company produces ammonia, granular urea, UAN solution, and AN primarily for agricultural markets, with competitive advantage driven by low-cost natural gas feedstock access and strategic Mississippi River/pipeline distribution infrastructure.

Basic MaterialsAgricultural Chemicals - Nitrogen Fertilizershigh - Nitrogen production facilities have substantial fixed costs (depreciation, maintenance, labor) representing 20-30% of total costs. Once plants are running at high utilization rates (CF typically operates at 95%+ capacity), incremental volume drops significantly to bottom line. However, natural gas represents 70-80% of cash costs, creating variable cost exposure that partially offsets operating leverage.

Business Overview

01Ammonia (~25% of revenue) - industrial applications, direct agricultural use, feedstock for downstream products

02Granular Urea (~35% of revenue) - nitrogen fertilizer for corn, wheat, and other crops

03UAN Solution (~30% of revenue) - liquid nitrogen fertilizer for direct application

04Ammonium Nitrate and other nitrogen products (~10% of revenue)

CF converts natural gas into ammonia through the Haber-Bosch process, then upgrades ammonia into higher-value nitrogen fertilizers. Profitability is driven by the spread between natural gas input costs (70-80% of cash production costs) and nitrogen fertilizer selling prices, which correlate with crop prices and global nitrogen supply-demand. North American natural gas prices typically trade at significant discounts to international prices, providing structural cost advantage versus European and Asian producers. The company operates at scale with 10 million tons gross ammonia capacity, enabling fixed cost absorption and logistics efficiency through barge, rail, and pipeline distribution.

What Moves the Stock

Natural gas prices (Henry Hub) - primary input cost representing 70-80% of cash production costs

Nitrogen fertilizer benchmark prices - Tampa ammonia, NOLA urea, Midwest UAN prices

Corn and wheat futures prices - drive farmer fertilizer application rates and affordability

Global nitrogen supply additions - new capacity in China, Middle East, Russia affecting global pricing

North American planted acreage - USDA prospective plantings reports for corn and wheat

Natural gas-to-nitrogen price spreads - the margin capture between input costs and product realizations

Watch on Earnings

Average selling price per ton across ammonia, urea, UAN product segmentsSales volume by product (tons sold) and capacity utilization ratesNatural gas costs per MMBtu and total cost of goods sold per tonGross margin per ton and operating cash flow generationCapital deployment - dividends, share repurchases, debt reduction given strong FCF profile

Risk Factors

Global nitrogen capacity additions - China, Middle East, and Russia have added significant low-cost capacity that can pressure global pricing during periods of oversupply

Environmental regulations and carbon pricing - nitrogen production is energy-intensive with significant CO2 emissions; potential carbon taxes or stricter emissions standards could increase costs, though CF is investing in carbon capture and clean ammonia projects

Agricultural policy changes - shifts in biofuel mandates, crop subsidies, or trade policies affecting corn/wheat demand and planted acreage

Natural gas price convergence - if North American natural gas prices rise toward global parity, CF's structural cost advantage versus international producers would erode

Import competition - when global nitrogen prices are weak, low-cost imports from Trinidad, Middle East, or Russia can pressure North American pricing and market share

Commodity price volatility - nitrogen prices can swing dramatically based on global supply-demand, creating earnings volatility despite strong balance sheet

Pension and environmental obligations - legacy liabilities typical of industrial manufacturing operations

StructuralCompetitiveBalance Sheet

Macro Sensitivity

Economic Cycle

moderate - Nitrogen fertilizer demand is relatively inelastic as farmers require nitrogen for crop production regardless of economic conditions. However, crop prices (which correlate with broader commodity cycles and global GDP growth) influence farmer economics and fertilizer affordability. Strong agricultural commodity prices enable farmers to maximize fertilizer application rates, while weak crop prices pressure demand at the margin.

Interest Rates

Low direct sensitivity. CF carries moderate debt ($3.7B net debt) but generates substantial cash flow ($2.3B operating cash flow) to service obligations. Rising rates have minimal impact on fertilizer demand. Indirect sensitivity exists through USD strength (higher rates strengthen dollar, making US exports less competitive) and farmer financing costs for land/equipment, which can affect planting decisions and fertilizer budgets.

Credit

Minimal. CF sells primarily to agricultural retailers, cooperatives, and distributors with established credit relationships. Farmer credit conditions can indirectly affect fertilizer demand, but CF's customer base is diversified and payment terms are typically short-dated. The company maintains strong liquidity with $2.27 current ratio.

Live Conditions

Natural GasSoybean MealCornSoybeansS&P 500 Futures

Profile

value and dividend - CF generates substantial free cash flow ($1.8B, 11.4% FCF yield) and returns capital through dividends and buybacks. The stock trades at attractive valuation (5.4x EV/EBITDA) relative to historical averages and cash generation. Investors are attracted to the cyclical upside when nitrogen spreads expand, combined with downside protection from North American natural gas cost advantage. The 20.5% net margin and 28.2% ROE appeal to quality-focused value investors.

moderate-to-high - As a commodity chemical producer, CF exhibits significant earnings volatility driven by nitrogen price cycles and natural gas cost fluctuations. However, the stock's beta is moderated by the essential nature of nitrogen fertilizers and CF's low-cost position. Historical volatility is elevated during periods of extreme natural gas price moves or global nitrogen supply shocks.

Key Metrics to Watch

Henry Hub natural gas spot and futures prices (primary cost driver)

Tampa ammonia price benchmark and NOLA urea price benchmark (global nitrogen pricing indicators)

Corn futures prices (ZCUSX) and USDA planted acreage reports (demand driver)

CF's realized average selling prices per ton by product segment

North American nitrogen import volumes and inventory levels

Global nitrogen operating rates and capacity utilization (supply indicator)

CF's gross margin per ton and cash cost of production

agriculture natural gas free cash flow debt China