5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $7.3B | $8.7B | $10.3B | $7.9B | $5.3B |
| EBIT | $239M | $283M | $336M | $257M | $174M |
| Tax | $41M | $49M | $58M | $44M | $30M |
| NOPAT | $198M | $234M | $278M | $213M | $144M |
| + Depreciation | $137M | $163M | $193M | $148M | $100M |
| - Capex | $18M | $21M | $25M | $19M | $13M |
| - Δ NWC | $132M | $1.2B | $1.4B | -$2.1B | -$2.3B |
| Free Cash Flow | $186M | -$819M | -$991M | $2.5B | $2.5B |
| Discount Factor | 0.847 | 0.718 | 0.609 | 0.516 | 0.437 |
| Present Value | $158M | -$588M | -$603M | $1.3B | $1.1B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 16.01% | $51.72 | $53.12 | $54.63 | $56.26 | $58.02 |
| 17.01% | $48.19 | $49.37 | $50.63 | $51.98 | $53.44 |
| 18.01% | $45.17 | $46.17 | $47.23 | $48.37 | $49.59 |
| 19.01% | $42.56 | $43.41 | $44.32 | $45.28 | $46.31 |
| 20.01% | $40.29 | $41.02 | $41.80 | $42.62 | $43.50 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth2.07%
Year 2 Revenue Growth18.39%
Year 3 Revenue Growth18.68%
Year 4 Revenue Growth-23.48%
Year 5 Revenue Growth-32.42%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin3.26%
Tax Rate17.20%
Capex / Revenue0.24%
NWC / Revenue88.72%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.