CTT.LSCTT.LSLIS
Loading
Nuno Vieira: Good morning, and welcome to CTT's 9 Months '25 Results Conference Call. This event is hosted by Mr. João Bento, CEO of CTT; by Mr. Guy Pacheco, CFO of CTT; and by Mr. João Sousa, CCO of CTT. Please note that this conference call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I'll now turn the call over to Mr. João Bento, CEO.
João Bento: Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter results presentation. I would invite you to follow us through the presentation that has been distributed yesterday evening. So if we move to the first slide, Slide #4. We have a plot of the -- a bridge of the revenue and EBIT in the quarter, with our, we'd call resilient organic growth; revenues growing 6%; recurring EBIT doubling that, 12%, with positive contributions from all the business lines in terms of revenues. This 6.1% are, in fact, 17.2%, taking into account the contribution of Cacesa. And on EBIT, the pro forma growth of 12.3% is in fact -- corresponds in fact, to 38.1%, which illustrates how competitive the addition of Cacesa represented to our e-commerce solutions portfolio. Moving to Slide #2 and with additional -- with additional detail on the growth of parcels volumes. We see a comparison between second quarter and third quarter, with a slight sequential improvement in e-commerce volumes. But we have to take into account that there were a couple of events, very significant in the end of September, that somehow impacted volumes in the quarter. Indeed, we have this typhoon Ragasa in South Asia that kept significant amount of volumes, e-commerce volumes sourced in China in the ground, so they could not fly. Some of them were sent by land, but there were also impacts in the border between Poland and Belarus, and some of the volumes that came through roads were also halted there. There was also, well, I would say, meaningful delay in main volumes that we can discuss later on. The good news is that all these volumes were merely delayed and they showed up already in October. But on the right-hand side of the slide, we can see that we have, well, double-digit growth in July, in August and then in September, a flattish improvement basically for the reasons that we have mentioned. So because of that, we are -- we keep quite confident also because October is looking extremely positive, and we anticipate a strong growth outlook for volumes, around 15% year-on-year for the fourth quarter of this year. Moving to Slide #6 and moving from volumes to revenues and margin. What we see is an improvement of 36% in revenues, that without Cacesa would even still represent a double digit, around 11% growth, which is significantly amplified when we move to the EBIT margin in the sense that with the pro forma of Cacesa, the growth would be very slight, 4.5%, but indeed a 50% growth on EBIT. The good news that we'd like to highlight here is that although -- well, despite of these volumes delayed given the typhoon and the closing of the Polish border, we still see an improvement in margin from 8.7% to 9.5% that, as you know, is, well, the best EBIT margin for any parcel business in the market. So given the contribution of Cacesa, that differentiates our E&P offering. We -- with this integrated model, we continue to drive profitability in parcels. And in that sense, we think that we should signal that. Moving to Mail. I will pass the floor to my colleague, João Sousa.
Joao Carlos Sousa: Thank you, João. Good morning, everyone. On Mail & Other services, as you can see, in the third quarter of 2025, we are already seeing a recovery in address mail, with volumes down only 4.3% compared to a decline of 8.5% over the first 9 months of the year. In fact, this improvement reflects a gradual stabilization of the activity after several quarters of more pronounced declines in traditional mail volumes. This recovery is mainly explained by the normalization of volumes and clearance of backlog from major clients, which had a negative impact in the previous quarters. And we are seeing also these positive trends already -- or continued in October that reinforce this recover momentum. I would like also to highlight the business solutions that is driving good performance. Business solutions continue to play a key role in supporting both revenues and margin in the Mail & Others business area, with recording growth of 10.9% year-on-year. As with this mix of revenues and services, as a result of this, we have total revenues reaching EUR 341.9 million, representing a limited decrease of 1.9% comparing with the previous year. On EBIT for the Mail & Other segments took on EUR 2.28 million for the first 9 months, maintaining a flat margin of 8.9%. This stable performance demonstrates that our operational discipline on cost control and continuous on to managing these ongoing structural change in the mail market. On Slide 8, now we are going to financial services and retail. We continue to see a sustainable performance across public debt and insurance offering. Financial sales continue to show a solid and consistent growth, supported by stronger results in public debt products and insurance. Public debt placements, up to 167% in Q3 compares with versus period in last year. Savings certificates maintain like a preference savings vehicle for the Portuguese citizens. And I would like also to highlight that the digital sale channels for these products continue to be performing strongly, and September was the record month for these channels. This has also allowed us to bring new citizens to this product. Also, we are -- with a robust growth in insurance and health plans, we are in this strategic to build recurring revenue streams continue to deliver. Health plans -- the stock of health plans, growth, 69% versus the end of last year and almost 33 -- sorry, 12.8% on quarter-on-quarter. Insurance products also, with a very good outlook, performing pretty well. And I would like also to highlight that in -- already in October, we launched a new health insurance that also allow us to have a new product in this area. And the first numbers give us also a very good highlight -- a very good outlook for the coming months. Seeing this on this business area, the revenue is up to 57%, reaching EUR 9.8 million, and EBIT up to 44.8% to EUR 5.2 million. This reflects the success of our diversification strategy for this business area. And now pass to Guy.
Guy Patrick Guimarães de Pacheco: Thank you, João, and good morning to all. On Slide 9, we can see Banco CTT's numbers, where we witnessed a strong growth in business volumes, growing 11.4% year-on-year in the third quarter, with a strong performance on the loan book that grew 16.4%. And on the off-balance savings, that grew 25.7%, where we see Generali partnership already at cruise speed and gaining -- continuing to gaining traction on the market. That translated to banking revenues growing 3.7% in the period, although with some compression in net interest margins as interest rates seem to reach a bottom, which gives us positive trends going forward. We see net interest income going up EUR 0.9 million, and commissions led by insurance and card commissions growing EUR 0.6 million in the period. We -- in terms of profitability, a flattish performance as we continue to invest in our future growth, deploying additional commercial capabilities, be it digital or physical, and we invest in technology to support that growth. Our return on tangible equity stood at 13%, a slight increase vis-a-vis the 12.4% of last year. Moving on to the financial review. In Slide 11, we have our key financial indicators where we see resilient growth throughout most of the metrics. On revenues, 17.2% growth. And if we consider Cacesa last year with the 6.1% growth in the third quarter, recurring EBIT growing 38.1% or if we account for Cacesa, 12.3%. Specific items reached EUR 7.6 million as we concluded the restructuring project that we have ongoing on the Mail division for this year. We invested EUR 4.2 million in exits of people. M&A expenses and strategic projects account for the rest of the value. Net profit in the quarter reaching EUR 10.7 million, growing 35%, or reaching, in the 9 months, EUR 32.8 million, growing 18.4%. Our free cash flow stood at negative EUR 6.4 million, and this is due to strong working capital investment that I will detail towards the end. On Slide 12, we see our revenue reach, where we continue to see Express & Parcels as our main contributor to growth. Revenue is growing 6.1%, accounting with Cacesa, with Express & Parcels growing EUR 15.7 million or 10%, with softer parcel volumes due to a weak September, putting some pressure on growth. And this was caused by the extraordinary effects that João shared, the typhoon and the military movements on the Polish border. Cacesa continues to perform very well. In Mail, we witnessed a EUR 2.4 million decline or 2.3%. This is -- this shows 2 different performance, Mail declining EUR 3 million in the quarter or 3.4%, that were partially offset by the good performance of Business Solutions as we continue to diversify along the value chain of our customers in order to further increase the resilience of the revenues of these business units. In the bank, EUR 1.3 million increase or 3.7%, fully driven by net interest income and commissions growth as we continue to grow our business volumes. In Financial Services, an increase of EUR 3.5 million in the quarter, and fully due to the strong performance in public debt placements, that grew more than EUR 1.1 billion as debt certificates continue to be a very attractive product in the market vis-a-vis other low-risk alternatives and already with some positive contribution of the recurring revenues that we continue to bet on in order to find additional diversification on these business units. All in all, other key metric is the Express & Parcels in the quarter already are above 50% of our revenue, reaching 52% of our total revenues this quarter. On Slide 13, we see our costs. Our OpEx grew 5.6% in the quarter, driven by parcel, in line with activity, but softer volumes putting pressure on our unit costs. As you know, we start to scale for the peak season, where we keep prioritizing quality as we see that as paramount to further growth in the future. Mail & Others with a decline of EUR 3.3 million on OpEx or 3%. We continue to optimize our routes with a strong reduction on the number of routes and account reduction that mainly account for that OpEx savings. In Financial Services, we see a EUR 1.9 million increase, fully in line with higher activity. And in the Bank at 5.8% increase or EUR 1.5 million, and this is fully to the commercial and technology investments that I already shared. Cost of risk this quarter with a good performance, reaching 0.7% of cost of risk. So good dynamics there as well. In Slide 14, we see our recurring EBIT, where we posted a 12.3% growth with bank, flat and all the other business units with a positive contribution. In Express & Parcels, we see very resilient margins despite these lower-than-expected volumes in the quarter, with 9.5% margin and increasing EUR 0.7 million. In Mail, positive contribution of business solutions and cost reductions, leading to a EUR 0.9 million increase in the quarter. Financial Services, with good -- very good performance in placements, also contributing positively with EUR 1.6 million. And the Bank, with this flattish performance, with the investments in capabilities offsetting the growth in banking products. Going forward, we expect a very strong peak season that will underpin the EBIT growth in Express & Parcels. Mail seasonality will lead to a sequential margin improvement as fourth quarter continues to be, seasonality-wise, the strongest quarter of the year. Financial service will continue to grow, although with a tougher comparable in the fourth quarter. And the Bank will post a flat to single-digit growth due to the continuous investments in commercial activity. Slide 15, we see our consolidated cash flow. Operating cash flow reached EUR 42.9 million in the 9 months, with a strong growth year-on-year. Free cash flow also stood in 20 -- 12 -- sorry, 18.8%, also with a EUR 10 million growth. And our net debt now stands at EUR 61 million at consolidated level. In Slide 16, we see pretty much the same figures, but excluding the bank or having the bank under equity accounting, where we see, in the 9 months as the operating cash flow reached EUR 20 million and due to this high investment in working capital. In the third quarter, our working capital increase EUR 13 million. And this is due to seasonality or third quarter is normally very strong in working capital investments, and that is due EUR 5 million to the travel subsidy to the Portuguese Island, a service that we provide to the Portuguese government, and because of summer normally has this high growth and payment terms with Portuguese that are always pressured. And we have EUR 8 million increase in accounts receivables, both by increase in activity and some delays in payments of some key customers that we expect to fully offset in the fourth quarter as normally we do. Our net debt now stands at EUR 2.4 million due to this working capital investment, but we expect to -- that to be deleveraging towards the 2x in the end of the year. And with all that, I'll hand you over to João Bento for his final remarks.
João Bento: Thank you. So moving to Slide #18. We have a plot of the evolution of EBIT and the corresponding contribution of E&P that we see that, well, after the drop between '19 and '20 associated with the COVID crisis, it's been very, very steady. And looking at the trailing last 12 months up to the third quarter of this year, we see that we are already at EUR 105 million of EBIT, which means that we would require fourth quarter, that would be roughly EUR 10 million or more above that number. The right-hand side chart, it illustrates the gap between where we are and what we need actually to do. So we see the fourth quarter EBIT of last year at EUR 30.5 million. If we would consider the contribution of Cacesa, that would take us to EUR 37.2 million, meaning that because we need EUR 41 million to achieve the guidance, we are at a 10.3% increase or 34.4% versus the actual number of last year. This 10.3% of growth quarter-on-quarter -- fourth quarter-on-fourth quarter is, I would say, significantly less than what we have exhibited throughout the year. So at the top hand side of the slide, you can see that in the first quarter, we grew 19.5%, 28% on the second, 12% on this quarter, with all the delays associated with the typhoons. And so I'm not saying it's easy, but it's quite feasible, and that's why we are strongly committed to keep our ambition of recurring EBIT equal or higher than EUR 115 million. And by completing a quarter along those lines, this will, in fact, represent the conclusion of, I would say, notable transformation cycle that we have been taking this company. I would still ask you to follow me on the last slide, just to remind you that we have our Capital Markets Day taking place next Monday and Tuesday. We have quite promising news for you. We're going to do the similar exercise that we did 3 years ago, discussing and illustrating the strategy for our business areas and committing with financial targets for 2028. So we are looking forward to meet you all there. And I believe that you'll be very pleased with the news that we have to bring. With that, we remain available for your questions.
Nuno Vieira: [Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from João Safara.
Joao Safara Silva: I'll start just with 2 questions. The first on -- to try to understand a little bit what is implicit in the fourth quarter margin for Express & Parcels. Obviously, and you've mentioned that you've been focusing a lot on quality ahead of the season.
Nuno Vieira: João, sorry, we are having significant difficulties in listening to you. If you can speak louder, please.
Joao Safara Silva: Yes. Is it better now?
Nuno Vieira: It's better now.
Joao Safara Silva: Okay. Sorry. Okay. Yes. So what I -- yes, so going back to my question, what I was wondering and trying to look implicitly to the fourth quarter. To meet your guidance, you obviously have to have some kind of improvement in Express & Parcel margins. So I think basically, I just wanted to have a confirmation there since we've been having in the last quarters, in first quarter, margins were flat, obviously, trying to exclude the impact of Cacesa, which I know it's difficult. And then in the second quarter, you've recovered. And now in the third quarter, it seems that margins, again, they've more or less been flat versus year-on-year. And for the fourth quarter, according to my numbers, it would still imply an improvement in margins. So if you could -- well, just give me some color there on what are you seeing for the fourth quarter in terms of margins? And then the other question is just on the extraordinary costs you had this quarter for the employment contract suspension. The question here is, I mean, basically, if this is something related to the plan you're going to present on Tuesday? Or is this something that was already contemplated and part of your ongoing cost savings?
Guy Patrick Guimarães de Pacheco: Thank you, João. So on your first question, so we are expecting a strong peak season in Express & Parcels, that will once again be the main driver of our growth in the fourth quarter. Obviously, as you know, scale here plays a role and because we have this unforeseen lack of volumes on the third quarter, especially in September, that put some pressure on unit costs. And as such, our margin was stable-ish. And I would like to underline that, nevertheless, we were able to post a 9.5% EBIT margin that shows a lot of resilience of that business unit. But nevertheless, as you said, we expect both a volume increase and a slight margin increase during the fourth quarter. That was again Express & Parcel as a main driver. We also expect growth coming from Mail -- sorry, positive impacts for Mail and the growth coming from Financial Services as we continue to see resilience on the placements, although the comparable will be tougher as last quarter was already very strong in placements last year. On the specific items. So 2 main things. First, it's the restructuring project that we ended, and that we continue to explore opportunities to optimize Mail & Others as we continue to see that paramount to sustain margin going forward. And that project comes to an end in the third quarter. And now we also had some strategic projects that are, as you mentioned, linked with the next strategic cycle that we'll announce next week and some M&A expenses as we continue to have projects ongoing and what's ongoing, be it with the transactions already announced and other internal projects.
Joao Safara Silva: Just a follow-up, would there be, on the fourth quarter, additional nonrecurring cost?
Guy Patrick Guimarães de Pacheco: On people, no. We should expect some costs around M&A, but nothing as meaningful as this quarter.
Nuno Vieira: Our next question comes from Filipe Leite.
Filipe Leite: Yes. I have 3 questions, if I may. The first one is on Cacesa and the integration of Cacesa. Basically from the EUR 5 million synergy that you announced at the time of the acquisition. If you have an idea of how much do you have already achieved in terms of synergies, and when should you expect or should we expect the full achievement of this EUR 5 million synergies with the incorporation of Cacesa? Second question on Mail and CPI used this as reference for the upcoming year. Mail price increase, I believe, is up to June or July. And the question is if you have already an idea of the potential magnitude of the price increase for mail next year? And last one is a clarification on specific [indiscernible] because looking at the breakdown, you mentioned in 9 months, EUR 1.4 million positive impact from regulatory compensation. But in second quarter alone, this positive impact was EUR 3.5 million. If you can clarify what are those regulatory compensations and why the reversal in third quarter?
João Bento: I'm afraid we didn't get exactly what you mean in the third question, but I will start with the previous 2 ones. So on Cacesa, things are going pretty well. What we can say is that we are more or less around midterm achieving the full synergies that have been announced, and they will be fully embedded across next year because there are several -- the nature of the synergies is diversified, but so we are probably halfway to be there. On CPI, actually, the formula is public. We know the volume decline, we know the inflation. The issue here is that the proposal has been put, but it's not been approved. In any case, you should expect something around 6.5% plus or -- more or less around that, just not to give you the exact figure because it's not been approved. But it's very easy to compute the numbers and it should be something around -- well, between 6.5%, 7%, some like that.
Guy Patrick Guimarães de Pacheco: On the third question, because we didn't fully get it, I suggest that Nuno Vieira will follow up with you in the end of the call.
Nuno Vieira: [Operator Instructions] As there are no further questions at this point, I would like to hand the call back over to Mr. João Bento, CEO, for any additional or closing remarks.
João Bento: Thank you, Nuno. Well, as we've seen, it's been a mild quarter, fortunately, positioning us strongly in line to achieve the guidance this year. And I believe that the most promising news are to be shared with you on the forthcoming Capital Markets Day next week. So thank you again for coming. We remain available to your questions through the IRO team, and hope to meet you all next week. Thank you.
Nuno Vieira: Thank you very much for your participation. This earnings call is now concluded.