10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $184.2B | $204.2B | $224.3B | $227.4B | $238.6B |
| EBIT | $28.2B | $31.3B | $34.4B | $34.9B | $36.6B |
| Tax | $8.5B | $9.4B | $10.3B | $10.5B | $11.0B |
| NOPAT | $19.8B | $21.9B | $24.1B | $24.4B | $25.6B |
| + Depreciation | $16.6B | $18.4B | $20.2B | $20.4B | $21.5B |
| - Capex | $13.7B | $14.3B | $14.8B | $14.0B | $13.1B |
| - Δ NWC | -$20M | $62M | $2M | $14M | $33M |
| Free Cash Flow | $22.6B | $25.9B | $29.5B | $30.8B | $33.9B |
| Discount Factor | 0.937 | 0.822 | 0.721 | 0.633 | 0.520 |
| Present Value | $21.2B | $21.3B | $21.3B | $19.5B | $17.6B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 4.75% | $364.26 | $387.20 | $418.48 | $463.63 | $485.17 |
| 5.75% | $306.40 | $319.13 | $335.24 | $356.30 | $385.02 |
| 6.75% | $265.05 | $272.87 | $282.33 | $294.02 | $308.83 |
| 7.75% | $233.32 | $238.47 | $244.51 | $251.70 | $260.40 |
| 8.75% | $207.84 | $211.39 | $215.48 | $220.21 | $225.77 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Energy Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth-1.52%
Year 3 Revenue Growth4.48%
Year 5 Revenue Growth0.12%
Year 7 Revenue Growth0.87%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin15.33%
Tax Rate30.00%
Historical Capex / Rev7.45%
Terminal Capex / Rev5.50%
NWC / Revenue0.71%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Energy sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.