high - Oil demand correlates 0.6-0.7 with global GDP growth, with 1% global GDP growth driving ~1 million boe/d demand increase. Refining margins compress during recessions as gasoline demand falls 3-5% while crude prices remain supported by OPEC+ supply management. Industrial activity drives diesel and jet fuel demand, representing 40% of refined product slate.

Moderate direct impact through $25B debt stack (0.22 D/E ratio) - 100bps rate increase adds ~$150-200M annual interest expense. Larger indirect impact through oil price mechanism: higher rates strengthen USD (negative for oil prices denominated in dollars) and reduce economic growth expectations, pressuring crude demand. Valuation multiples compress as dividend yield (3.5-4.0%) becomes less attractive versus risk-free rates, though energy stocks trade more on commodity prices than rate-driven multiple expansion/contraction.

value and dividend - Chevron attracts income-focused investors with 40-year dividend growth streak, 3.5-4.0% yield, and commitment to return 50%+ of CFO to shareholders. Also appeals to value investors during oil price troughs when stock trades at 0.8-1.2x book value and 4-6x trough earnings. Less attractive to growth investors given mature asset base and 0-3% production CAGR guidance. ESG-screened funds increasingly exclude due to fossil fuel exposure.