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Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the DHL Group conference call. Please note that the call will be recorded. You can find the privacy notice on dhl.com. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Martin Ziegenbalg, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Martin Ziegenbalg: Thank you, and a warm welcome from my side to the Q3 '25 results call. As it says on the title, I have here with me our Group CEO, Tobias; and the Group CFO, Melanie. We aim to cover all ground within the next hour or so. So therefore, without losing any further time, over to you, Tobias.
Tobias Meyer: Yes. Thank you, Martin. Thank you all for participating in this call and your interest in our company. On Page 2, the highlights for the quarter. Firstly, on the short term, dealing with the changes in the global landscape, particularly the outfall of the changes in U.S. trade policy. Within the quarter, we had the abolishment of the de minimis also for the rest of the world. I think we have been able to deal with that very effectively by adjusting and shifting capacity, especially in our more asset-intensive global transportation networks that being Express, especially to do adequate yield management to overall mitigate the impact on the U.S. trade lanes and continue to take advantage where there is growth, and we'll talk about where there is growth in a minute. What is also very important to us not to only be observed with the short term, but continue to spend time and execute measures to accelerate our growth through the focus on the industry verticals that we've laid out in our Strategy 2030, but also and very importantly, to invest in those geographies that are growing and will continue to grow. We have a list of countries, which we call GT20 Global Tailwinds 20 with related trade lane development measures. And I think we can say that we also made good progress on that in the third quarter. Cash flow generation was strong. Melanie is going to talk about that in a minute, and we continue to be committed and execute on our promise on attractive shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks, which also continued in the quarter. On Page 3, you see a statistic a graph that we published in conjunction with our global connectivenness tracker. Those of you who follow us more closely, we have been doing this for some years in collaboration with NYU Stern. And we found it worthwhile to highlight that the average distance of trade has continued to grow, actually reaching a record high. There is a strong narrative out there that talks about regionalization and french shoring and there might be reasons for such trends. But the fact of the matter is that long-distance trade continues to grow. We have massive shifts that we see in our company, but also beyond due to the changes in U.S. trade policy. But we also see that other trading partners continue to expand. I think most notably that was visible in the September export figures of China, where trade to the U.S. was down 27%, but you had double-digit growth in the trade with Southeast Asia with the trade of Europe as well and particularly the trade to the Middle East and Africa was growing a lot, Latin America as well. These being long-haul trades and that compensating for some of the decoupling that we see as it relates to the U.S., which clearly has a lower share of participation in global trade as is increasingly replaced by China as the most important trading partner for many countries in the world. That is also visible on Page 4 when it comes to our volumes here, a focus on the time-definite international piece. So that specific segment of DHL Express. You see, by and large, the trend from the second quarter continuing. So especially the decline on the U.S.-bound trade, the U.S. inbound that is, but we see also some other trades, also U.S. exports being somewhat under pressure as input factors for U.S. producers get more expensive if aluminum is double the price in the U.S. than it is in other parts of the world, it's obviously difficult to produce cost competitive products. So that is something that will continue to influence global trade and thereby our customers and the business that we do with them. As spoken, the de minimis now being abolished also for Rest of World that had a notable impact on volumes, less so for us on profitability because we were able to counteract that. But also we see that some volumes are declining that have been not so profitable for us to start with. So that also impacts our overall results. But the cost action is very important. And on Page 5, you see some details on that. Aviation costs down 8.5% in the quarter. That's hard work, and we are really pleased to see that the Express Aviation team has been able to deal with that very professionally. Service was very good in the quarter. And we are also really looking forward to the fourth quarter across all divisions. I think we're very well prepared with our setup to deliver excellent quality. But we do that in good balance with strengthening our cost competitiveness. So we have adjustments that are more cyclical, ramping down capacity shifting capacity. But on top of that, structural measures, which we have under the program Fit for Growth that really makes us a better company in many ways. Cost competitiveness is an important part of our growth journey going forward as well. So we see ourselves in making good progress on that. We keep the discipline that you used from DHL Express, but also the other divisions when it comes to yield. That's clearly also supportive of the result in the quarter. Some more examples on P&P on the following Page 6. Maybe before I go on to the profitability accelerators, it's important to note that the volume in the quarter for P&P had some shifts for some good carrying products between letter and parcel. There are details in the backup on that. So if you look on an organic basis, parcels were up around 2%. We had normal ups and downs in the volume of mail as well. The advertising mail had been quite weak in the third quarter of 2024. So year-on-year, it looks quite positive. But overall, when it comes to letter volume in Germany, there is no change to any trends. We still see that on the path that we talked about earlier. Now coming to the concrete measures that helped us also improve profitability to the level that we're now seeing, which is in line with the guidance that we've provided. AB steering, this is something that we can now do to a greater extent because of the lead time extension we got for the standard letter so that those standard letters are only brought to every address every second day, staying within the allowed lead time, but allowing for some efficiencies in that last mile and skipping households where we would elsewise only had a single letter on Monday and Tuesday, for instance, and now we bundle that to 2 letters on Tuesdays. That's what's meant with that AB steering. Joint delivery is something that we have been on for a long time. It's a really big program because it requires us to rebuild infrastructure to a great extent, but that is really very important in the long run to strengthen the efficiency of the system to ultimately become a parcel carrier that also carries some mail. We are now at 69% of parcels being jointly delivered with mail. So that's steadily progressing and supporting the efficiency, much needed efficiency within P&P. Out-of-home continues to be a focus. We continue to invest in that. We are as close to consumers as we ever were in Germany, and that is strengthening our position in that market and also on the support functions, we are nimble and efficiency focused, which you also see in the numbers. Technology plays an important role. On Page 7, there are some examples how we also deploy Agentic AI. Outside Europe, we have support for frontline recruiting, for instance, the prequalification, the initial interview of somebody who wants to work for DHL, an applicant that's done with the support of AI, customer service, probably across industries, the most common use case that is also visible in our company. More specifically on customs, it's very helpful not only from an efficiency point of view, but Agentic AI also does an excellent job in documenting the sources that were used for classification, so on the regulatory side, but also on the goods description side that does not only increase efficiency, but also service quality and compliance, very important in this area, especially when we talk about U.S. clearances is an important component of our success there. I think we have been leading in providing continued great service into the U.S. in recent months. So that's something where this also contributed. And then on service logistics, dispatch calls, for instance, following up on the dispatch of trucks is one of those areas where AI also comes in handy. When we look at growth accelerators on the following Page 8, we continue to invest organically, roughly at the same level than we had in previous years. This goes into infrastructure that improves our quality like in Barcelona and Helsinki for Express, but also investments that unlock new revenue streams, particularly in geographies like Middle East and Africa, where we're really getting into new verticals as well for supply chain, especially and then the ongoing expansion we have in our last mile activity. We continue to do targeted M&A, and we also had such in the third quarter as it relates to the merger of our e-commerce operations in U.K. with Evri. That is a consolidating move. We believe we need to be amongst the top 3 players in every e-commerce last mile market that we're in. If we're not able to reach this organically, we'll do so inorganically. We have announced a similar move for Iberia earlier in the year. We have now closed the transaction in the U.K., getting into such a market-leading position with that participation in the merged entity. We did a smaller acquisition in the U.S. that gives us access to specific capability on health care-orientated last mile, hospital logistics. And with our investment in AGEX, we get access to last mile activities in the Gulf Corporation Council countries. So again, an expansion of our footprint, which is part of the strategy that we have communicated. Similarly, we support the strategy with a strengthened management focus. We have a dedicated team for supply chain Middle East and Africa that has been executed in the third quarter. We just announced that we'll also have a similar move with DHL Global Forwarding as it relates to Latin America. So we want to have senior leadership in the region to drive the growth of those businesses. That's part of our strategy execution as well. That already brings me to my summary on Page 9. So we cover the short-term volatility that the business is exposed to. We're successful in protecting earnings and cash flow generation in that environment by doing the cyclical capacity flex, which I believe was highly effective also in this quarter, but also work on the structural measures that make us more competitive in the mid- to long term through the Fit for Growth initiatives, including increased deployment of technology such as AI-based tools. But also the long term, we saw progress in the quarter with those organic investments, the targeted M&A. We see ourselves making good progress on those structural elements of our growth journey towards Strategy 2030, and that is important to accelerate our growth trajectory in '26 and '27. We are aware that additional momentum is needed. With that, I would hand it over to Melanie to give you some more details on the financial performance of the divisions in the third quarter.
Melanie Kreis: Yes. Thank you very much, Tobias, and good morning, and welcome also from my side. Thank you for joining our Q3 earnings call. I will start on Page 10 with the main takeaways by division. For DHL Express, Tobias already explained the effectiveness of our cost and yield measures. Reported Express EBIT contains a net negative EUR 54 million from nonrecurring effects, mainly related to a legal provision as well as some smaller cost of change and M&A effects. So it's worth pointing out that excluding these nonrecurring items, Express EBIT was actually up 9% year-over-year. In forwarding freight, we have seen similar market dynamics as our peers. In comparison, we have been performing relatively well in the quarter with underlying ocean freight volume growth of 5% and increases in GP and GP per tonne in air freight, both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, all leading to forwarding EBIT being up versus Q2. That being said, we are clearly not where we want to be with DGFF and Oscar de Bok is implementing structural improvements. Supply Chain continues to perform very well. Yes, we see somewhat slower growth in current circumstances with both currency headwinds as well as impacts from the general environment. But the structural growth tailwinds are intact for that division as reflected in very good new business signings with EUR 1.4 billion new contract value in Q3. One of the key drivers of these customer wins as well as a strong 6% plus margin is our leading digitalization, automation and standardization setup. In DHL e-commerce, EBIT includes a mix of nonrecurring effects, which I will address on the next page. Fundamentally, Q3 confirmed the intact structural e-commerce growth opportunity, which is not yet translating into accelerated profits as we keep investing into our network in this division. Last but not least, P&P is delivering very well on its strategic plan. Tobias has shown earlier the structural network changes which we are successfully implementing under Fit for Growth. And the Q3 numbers show that our measures are working with a year-over-year EBIT increase, both on a reported and as an underlying basis, which brings me to our Q3 EBIT bridge on Page 11. So in Q3 '24, we had a EUR 70 million positive one-off effect in P&P. If you adjust for this as well as this year's nonrecurring effects, our reported 7.6% year-over-year EBIT increase was actually a 10% growth, excluding nonrecurring items. On the main effects in this quarter, we are showing them very transparently on this page. There are, in total, EUR 37 million cost of change across Express, Global Forwarding Freight and DHL e-commerce. I already talked about the net minus EUR 54 million in Express being primarily driven by a legal provision. Now to the big number in DHL e-commerce. We handed over control for our U.K. e-commerce business to EY at the end of the quarter, which led to a positive deconsolidation gain. This positive effect is partially balanced by cost of change as well as a total of EUR 42 million in noncash write-downs for a full net positive effect of EUR 123 million in the quarter. We are explaining the accounting effects of the U.K. transaction on the dedicated e-com page in the backup, so I won't go through the accounting details now, but be aware that going forward, we will no longer fully consolidate our U.K. e-commerce business, but recognize the pro rata net income of our 30% stake in the combined entity in EBIT in line with the equity accounting rules. So that was a bit on accounting now. Sticking to the P&L, turning to Page 12, some more comments on the overall P&L. I think it's worth pointing out here that the 2.3% revenue decline is about equivalent to the minus 2.4% FX effect in the quarter. So while lower freight rates and U.S. tariffs were a headwind to growth, that also implies this revenue development overall also implies that on other trade lanes in regions and verticals, we saw continued growth, as Tobias already pointed out before. On the cost side, you see the benefits of our capacity flex and structural cost measures taking effect in terms of significantly lower cost for external capacity as well as in the reduction in staff costs. And at the bottom of the P&L page, you see that our continuous and consistent share buyback activity is driving a significant step-up in earnings per share growth in Q3 to 16% year-over-year. Coming now to the key points in our cash flow statement on Page 13. So EBIT growth is translating into higher growth of operating cash flow before changes in working capital. There are numerous movements across different lines in the cash flow statement. But ultimately, this growth in OCF before changes in working capital shows that -- while there are some moving parts in our EBIT bridge, the earnings quality of our EBIT growth is very healthy, and that is very important. Working capital changes contributed positively to cash flow in the quarter with the main contribution coming from DGFF. And this is, for me, another useful reminder that while we have work to do on DGFF, the business model of an asset-light forwarder is attractive through the cycle with working capital being one of the factors protecting the cash flow generation of the model. Strong growth in operating cash flow, coupled with ongoing investment control led to a very good free cash flow in Q3. And I'm pleased that in '25, we have shown a smoother cash generation across the quarters and are well on track to our unchanged EUR 3 billion full year target for free cash flow, excluding M&A. And that takes us to the use of cash and the next page. We have been consistently delivering on our dividend continuity promise and to our clear commitment on our EUR 6 billion share buyback program. With EUR 4.4 billion done by end of September, this leaves up to EUR 1.6 billion to go by end of '26. So no change here in our commitment to attractive shareholder returns. To round it up, let's turn to our unchanged guidance on Page 15. When we talked about our Q2 numbers in early August, the short notice cancellation of Rest of World de minimis to the U.S. had just been announced, and we prudently flagged a worst-case risk from this new development. By now, the abolishment of Rest of World de minimis has been implemented, and we have better visibility on the impact. So this impact is now fully reflected in the assumptions for our otherwise unchanged guidance as we reconfirm explicitly in the first bullet below the full year '25 targets. And this brings me right away to my wrap-up and the 3 main messages we want you to take away from today. The first is that in the short term, our cost and yield measures have driven a strong Q3 performance. And on this basis, we fully confirmed guidance today. Secondly, beyond short-term volatility and capacity flex, our structural cost savings drive a sustainably lower cost base, not only for the current environment, but also for the growth path thereafter. So they literally make us fit for growth. And thirdly, beyond P&L earnings, we also delivered a strong cash flow, which allows us to invest in a very targeted manner into the GDP plus verticals and regions we identified, while at the same time, offering attractive returns for our shareholders. And before we now turn to your questions, something special, a quick double advertisement in the name of our Investor Relations team. So first, for your questions, we now have a new AI tool on our IR website, which matches your questions with the information we have provided in our official publications. Martin told me that this is pretty unique in the IR arena. I would ask all of you to check it out, give me feedback. I hope that this will be a good example on how we strive to apply AI wherever helpful across the organization. And secondly, we have John Pearson and Mike Parra, our divisional CEO and our CEO, Europe of DHL Express, hosting an investor visit at our U.K. hub upcoming Monday. Contact IR here for more details if interested. I think it's definitely worth seeing. And with that, operator, please launch the Q&A.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Alex Dogani at JPMorgan.
Alexia Dogani: Just I'm going to limit it to 2. Just firstly, in freight forwarding, obviously, Oscar has now been in the seat for, I think, the past 90 days. Can you give us a little bit of an indication of what his plan is to improve the earnings kind of progression in that division? Because clearly, things have been approaching the 2019 levels faster than we would have thought a couple of years ago. So that's my first question. And then secondly, can you give us an update on the progress on the legal structure tiding up and when we should expect to see the overheads within the divisional reporting that you signaled at the CMD? That's it.
Tobias Meyer: Thank you, Alex, for these 2 questions. So as it relates to Global Forwarding, I mean, Oscar is making progress. You saw the move on Latin America, for instance, which is, again, a closer to market move that enables us to execute our strategy in that as well. Overall, I think we know that in Global Forwarding, we have a great dependency on industry trends as well. You see that in the third quarter. That is hard for us to predict. We have seen clearly a normalization trend since COVID, but also within the year. I think there are some signs of that bottoming out, but there is a lot of uncertainty due to the changes in trade policy that we have talked about that obviously has implications on demand, quite notably so. On the other hand, we have compensating factors. I think we're all positively surprised by the trade figures that China published for September. That being one example of a counterbalancing effect. Overall, we see ourselves in the quarter with a positive development, especially in ocean freight. I think relative to our competitors, we have been doing quite well. Air freight, there's still more work to be done. And we also have that topic in terms of the freight market in Europe, especially our LTL network in Germany. So these are topics that Oscar is working on. But again, within the quarter relative to our peers, we are quite pleased.
Melanie Kreis: Alexia, I'll take your second question on legal structure and the allocation of the corporate center costs. So we are well on track on the legal cleanup. As you may recall, target is to take the topic to the AGM next spring, and we are on track to do that. We will then, once we have implemented the new legal structure in the course of '26, start with the new reporting with the full allocation of the corporate center costs in '27. We will do some parallel shadow calculations for '26 so that when we start reporting in the new structure in '27, we can also restate the '26 numbers to that format. That's the time line here.
Alexia Dogani: And can I just ask a follow-up on Tobias answer. Obviously, you talked about the external factors. productivity usually is an element that kind of helps improve the earnings kind of projections. We've seen other peers announce kind of relatively sizable cost savings programs. The Fit for Growth doesn't really apply to freight forwarding. Is there something that you are specifically looking at there, perhaps using natural attrition as a tailwind, just to kind of understand how costs should evolve there as well.
Melanie Kreis: I think when you look, for example, at the numbers we show in our stat book, you can see that in terms of employees, we are 3.9% down in Global Forwarding Freight. So Fit for Growth and cost measures are also happening in that division.
Tobias Meyer: Yes. So that I think I would absolutely echo we see ourselves good underway. You also have to see that productivity in the cycle has a cyclical element to it as well. In the downturn, we often see the files getting lighter and having less TEUs per file on the ocean freight side. Overall, also, if we look forward, Alexia, I mean, this is an area where we want to grow and rebuild also market share. So our obsession with cost is limited by that ambition to grow. We will look at productivity, continue to do so. But 2026 needs to be a year for growth for Global Forwarding. The environment is ripe for that. Some of the moves in the broader industry landscape might be helpful for us in that regard. So that's a strong focus that we have. We want to absolutely stay customer-focused in Global Forwarding and grow in those industry verticals that we have laid out. That's a clear focus for Oscar as well.
Martin Ziegenbalg: Thank you, Alexia. We come to the next caller, which is from Wolfe Research.
Operator: Yes, our next caller is Jacob Lacks with Wolfe Research.
Jacob Lacks: So cost control was strong again with the ongoing volume pressure in Express. Can you help us think about how much of the cost outs are variable and how much are structural? And is in the EUR 1 billion Fit for Growth plan, is that on track? Or are you ahead of schedule here just given the global trade volatility?
Melanie Kreis: Yes. Thank you for that question. So we are purpose really not breaking out how much of the cost is coming from the volume capacity flex and how much is structural because that is a little bit of an artificial calculation. So for example, -- we have done some rejigging to our aviation network by changing the partners we fly with. That has structurally improved our cost base under the Fit for Growth. But of course, that is now also impacted by how much volume we actually have in the network. So we don't see the benefit of kind of like pseudomathematically breaking it into the one bucket or the other. I think the important element is what you see in the bottom line and that is this very good cost development. And with that, we are overall a bit ahead of what we had envisioned under Fit for Growth for the third quarter situation.
Jacob Lacks: Great. And then just one more for me. When you look at the U.S. volume declines, do you have a sense for how much of these declines are driven by de minimis and how much are higher tariffs? And to the extent we see tariffs taken off by the courts next year, could this drive a B2C volume recovery?
Tobias Meyer: So I think we would not expect that. The -- even if IEEPA tariffs go, we all know that there are other legal grounds that the President could use to impose tariffs. So we think that the step down that has happened is permanent. If that would change, that would obviously provide opportunity. We would love that, would allow us also to definitely bring some business back, but we currently don't plan for that. The exact split between de minimis effect and tariffs is hard to do because it's also overlapping. So e-commerce has clearly taken a much more severe drop than B2B volumes. That's something that we very clearly see, and I think everybody would expect as well. Those B2B volumes are goods that are essential in many ways to the U.S. economy to U.S.-based customers. So the decline is significantly lower than the decline you see on the B2C on the e-commerce side.
Melanie Kreis: And you also see in our overall numbers. So for B2C, we had minus 23% on the shipment side and for B2B, minus 2%, so holding quite stable.
Martin Ziegenbalg: And on to the next caller from BNP.
Operator: Our next question comes from James Hollins with BNP Paribas.
James Hollins: James Hollins from BNP Paribas. Two from me. Melanie, please, could you try and quantify the de minimis impact? Obviously, you talked about up to EUR 200 million this year. Maybe you could give us any detail you think it's going to be and better still what you think it might be in full year '26. I know you told us not to annualize it. And then what I'd describe as a stream of questions on Express, but I'll keep it to pretend to one. If we look at Express TDI volumes obviously down 10%, 11% Q2 and Q3. B2C volumes down 23%. I was just wondering where that was versus the market, what you're seeing happening on market share and perhaps whether you could give us an early estimate where you think volumes might go in 2026. And then let's turn to the second part, TVI B2B volumes. I think previously, obviously, volume is pretty solid there. You talked about average weight per shipment. I was wondering if you could give us a bit of an update on that, if possible.
Melanie Kreis: Yes. Thank you. So starting with the de minimis question. So I mean, again, when we talked about the EUR 200 million on August 5, that was days under days after the announcement that de minimis would go out end of August rest of world. So what we had done to come up with EUR 200 million was basically extrapolate the development we had seen for China, Hong Kong to the U.S. And I had already flagged then that this was really a worst-case scenario. We have now seen that there is an impact, but that we are able to manage that quite well as visible the Q3 numbers for Express. With regard to the TDI volumes, I mean, first of all, we had already taken a yield and profitability focused approach to B2C volumes long before the whole de minimis thing started. We had talked about that now for, yes, 6 quarters that we had really taken pricing action and that this had impacted our volumes, particularly on the Transpacific. And in that respect, we had seen stronger volume declines than competition. But when you look at our profitability development, I think that shows very clearly that the development is -- our approach is the right one. And to the weight question, yes, I think that's a very important point. When you look at volume and weight development, we see a less pronounced development on the weight side. So the focus also on heavier shipments for the Express network is actually paying off.
Tobias Meyer: And I think if I may add to the market share, we are following that. You might have seen that some of our competitors have also published or said something to the in-quarter development. So that is something -- if you look at the entire quarter, it gives an impression that we might have lost. If you then look at how that development was within the quarter. We're not so sure about that anymore. So it's something that we watch. We obviously here are focused on TDI. We do not play in the intercontinental deferred market where there is clearly some growth that competitors have shown. Melanie commented on the profitability. The focus for 2026 is more on the weight side, given the focus on growing in industrials and the focus verticals that we have laid out. So that's our focus there, clearly B2B and tilted towards somewhat heavier weight of high-value critical goods. That's very much the focus of Express as we go into 2026.
Operator: Next question comes from Marco Limite with Barclays.
Marco Limite: Congrats for the Q2 results. So a question indeed on cost savings because I think the Q3 was a bit was mostly driven by cost savings. When we think about the 2026 outlook, I mean, I'm aware that probably is a bit too early to discuss about '26. But I mean, if -- specifically in the Express division, I mean, if we think about an environment where macro does not improve, you've got pricing that offset inflation. So let's say, the year-over-year improvement will be driven by cost savings. And then in your Fit for Growth program, I think you have said you have only EUR 250 million cost savings in '25 and a lot more next year. So is my, let's say, statement of Express growth next year of EUR 300 million, EUR 400 million year-over-year, right, if we assume macro stable and all coming from cost savings or that you think is a bit too bullish and I'm missing something else? Yes, maybe this is the first question. And my second question is on your full year '25 outlook. You have reported 3 quarters year-to-date up year-over-year and your current guidance at the low end implies Q4 down year-over-year. Yes, is that just, let's say, the low end is a bit more cautious? Or how do you explain that? I mean, do you just expect the e-commerce season being particularly bad? Or any color on that would be helpful.
Tobias Meyer: So maybe I take the first question and then Melanie can comment on the 2025 outlook. Look, I think in the current environment to say what a stable macro means, we find this relatively difficult. If you look on the macro assumptions that we based Strategy 2030 on, and we rely on external sources that has been very disappointing, not only as it relates to trade and what has happened with tariffs in the U.S., but also the continued weakness in Europe, especially Germany, Germany having the third year without growth. So we will provide guidance in due course. We are in that process. We'll obviously continue the focus on cost savings, the cyclical part, but more important, also the structural part. We see ourselves good underway, but I think we need to wait a bit more to see with what run rate we really now exit 2025. We have picked up momentum in some areas as it relates to contract closings, for instance, in supply chain, which is also needed to get back on a solid growth term. We need to see now what happens on the U.S. side with APA and how that turns out. So these are all factors that will play out in2026.
Marco Limite: Okay. Sorry, just a follow-up on that. asking the same question in a different way. Like can you confirm that you still got additional EUR 750 million cost savings next year and only EUR 250 million cost savings in '25 from the EUR 1 billion Fit for Growth program?
Melanie Kreis: So as I said, we are actually ahead on the Fit for Growth measures. So in that respect, we will already see more benefits in the current year. As Tobias said, we will give guidance for '26 in March. There will be a positive contribution year-over-year from Fit for Growth going into the next year. We also have some negatives, for example, in P&P, it will be the second year of the price regulation. And then we have the macro question mark. We will put all that together for our guidance in March. With regard to Q4, yes, I follow the mathematics and the year-over-year comparison. I think one important element also linked to the first part of your question, we do plan further cost of change bookings for the fourth quarter. So in total, we will probably have cost of change up to million, half has already happened, but that means that we will also do some more cost change in Q4. And as we guide on reported EBIT, that is, of course, all included in our EBIT guidance.
Operator: Next question comes from Cedar Ekblom with Morgan Stanley.
Cedar Ekblom: I've got 2 questions. So firstly, on the AI rollout that you guys talk about. Have you thought what you could quantify those cost savings at considering we've got headcount down a couple of percent versus the end of 2024. I don't know if you could put some numbers around sort of lowering cost to serve. Maybe it's too early in the process, but that would be interesting to understand. And then the second question is just related to sort of the macro outlook that you talked about, Tobias, at the beginning on your global connectedness tracker. That obviously points to a world where global trade as a multiplier of GDP should continue to be pretty solid. I'm not so sure that, that is consistent with the message you gave at the Capital Markets Day where we had that sort of long-term trend that saw that decelerating. But the broader question here is, you are not growing your volumes in the businesses that are sort of most geared into global trade, sort of freight forwarding and Express. And I wonder, is it a case where the global market might continue to grow overall, but the verticals that are actually profitable for your business become far more niche. So I suppose the overall market can grow, but can your business grow overall? Or is it a case that there's only certain segments that remain profitable? It's a bit of a macro question.
Tobias Meyer: Yes. Thank you, Cedar. For both of those questions, I think for AI, we would not quantify this. I think this is also very difficult to do. This technology is ultimately becoming a part of many, many applications that we use. We have dedicated programs as for customs, where we also drive that with own capacity, and that's easier to measure. But even that will quickly infiltrate into normal productivity increasements and the like. So singling out the AI effect as important as that emerging technology and very helpful technology is something that we see as difficult. Well, we'll continue to report and give updates on how we use it. and at least on a qualitative level, how it connects to our figures. As it relates to the macro outlook, I think we would stay with the view that we have shared that there is a deceleration also in the multiplier. The multiplier was significantly above 1 since at least 1990, and that will -- is not what we expect going forward. But the narrative that is out there of the regionalization is a Western perspective, and it's not a global perspective. China continues to globalize. Now in terms of us benefiting from that, it's not falling into our lap. That's, I think, a fair observation. There are some also industry sectors that we have strong exposure to that are not going to deliver the growth in Express, -- it is a story of an industry that has taken share from the general airfreight market over the last 40 years by expanding its capability. And that's what we need to do to be able to continue to grow that we have express cold chain capability, for instance, to have access to the sector that we're absolutely convinced will continue to globalize. The U.S. has a very unique point being the world's largest market and thereby being able to force companies to produce there. The rest of the world doesn't have that choice. Maybe China is the only second one to that. You will not produce modern pharmaceutical biogenetic pharmaceuticals in 20 places on this planet. This is just not what our customers tell us. These modern technologies are going to be highly concentrated, which means that for the rest of the world to participate, in that technological progress, there will be trade. That's what we see happening with a different focus, and that's what we expect going forward. Again, something that we need to actively address geographically, but also as it relates to our capability portfolio, and that's what we are working on and need to deliver on to be able to show stronger growth. I think we have a good track record in supply chain with that gradual expansion of our capability portfolio, but it's clearly a strong focus point for Express and Global Forwarding as we go into the year 2026.
Operator: Our next question comes from Alex Irving with Bernstein.
Alexander Irving: Two for me, please. First of all, on Express into the air peak season, both on volume and on the success of the surcharge, how are you seeing that develop, please? Second, also on Express, you've taken out quite a lot of costs year-over-year, but how much of that we need to add back as and when volumes rebound? Maybe related to that, where is the weight load factor currently, both year-over-year and also relative to your view of a normalized baseline?
Melanie Kreis: I think with regard to the Express peak season, maybe not just in Express, but also in the other businesses where we see a peak season, we do expect that there will be a B2C peak season. How dynamic that will be remains to be seen. But we clearly expect the seasonal increase in the B2C volumes, and we are prepared for that in Express, but of course, also in Post & Parcel Germany and the e-com divisions. And with regard to the yes, demand surcharge driven by this seasonal additional stress on the system. We are on track with the implementation. So we do expect the positive cost offset from that seasonal surcharge also in the fourth quarter of '25. With regard to how much of the cost improvement is there to stay, as I said before, it is a mix, what we see at the moment between volume-induced capacity adjustments and structural growth levers. So of course, when volumes come back, we will eventually also flex back with capacity. But we also think that those structural fit for growth measures will give a lasting benefit, but we can't quantify that to a very precise number. With regard to weight load factor, well, given the current volume and weight situation, we are still not at an optimal point. So the cost measures are helping. But of course, ultimately, that is still a fixed cost network where it is more enjoyable when there is more volume and weight. I mean, also with regard to margin, we have seen a good development, but this is not our ultimate margin goal. So I think very well managed given the circumstances, but we look forward to the moment when volumes come back.
Operator: Our next question comes from Michael Aspinall with Jefferies.
Michael Aspinall: Michael here from Jefferies. A couple on Express. On the Express Rest of World kind of impact, it was mostly lower volumes. Maybe you can just talk to us as to why that is? And just thinking about the characteristics of those products. Are they kind of highly desirable B2C products or B2B that still need to move? Just thinking kind of what's happening underneath the numbers.
Melanie Kreis: I think what we already assumed in August or what was kind of like our hope to keep us away from the worst-case scenario was that particularly the higher valued shipments, which had entered into the U.S. under the de minimis rule that they would be more resilient. So I mean, you had lots of machinery spare parts valued below $800 going into the U.S. under the de minimis. And our base case hypothesis was that these volumes would keep moving, but of course, then with clearance, and that is what we have now seen happening. So particularly the very low-value B2C stuff has seen the impact. partially also because customers are then changing to different forms of transporting B2C into the U.S. but we have seen more resilience on the B2B side, and that explains the difference between the minus 23% B2C volume decline and the minus 2.2% B2B.
Michael Aspinall: Great. And 2 other just small ones. In Express on TDI volumes, Europe improved sequentially a little bit from minus 3% to minus 1% in 3Q. Is there anything underneath that to read into in terms of Europe getting better or not really yet?
Melanie Kreis: I think it's a glass half full, glass half empty question. So yes, from minus 3% to minus 1% is moving in the right direction. Can we be satisfied with minus 1% -- clearly not. So yes, I think at the moment, we still see a more stagnant European development than we all would have hoped for.
Michael Aspinall: Okay. Great. And last one, sorry to slip in 3. I think you don't really get into fuel hedging in Express. Maybe you can just remind us on that. And similarly, if there's no hedging, but you expect lower fuel surcharges, would that normally help on the volume front?
Melanie Kreis: So on the fuel side, and there's a well-established mechanism in DHL Express, but also in the industry where you have a fuel surcharge. So there is a bit of a time lag about 6 weeks. But fundamentally, you then adjust and pass fluctuations in underlying fuel price on to the customer.
Tobias Meyer: And the volume elasticity is relatively low to that.
Operator: Our next question comes from Cristian Nedelcu with UBS.
Cristian Nedelcu: Can I ask the first one in Express, your competitors are talking about adding air capacity on intra-Asia and Asia Europe. And I believe -- and correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe those are usually trade lanes where your Express margins are higher than the divisional average. So how do you see the risk of potential market share losses or margin compression there in 2026? The second one, maybe a small one on the Q3 Express. For what concerns the U.S., we've heard about the postal operators temporarily stopping deliveries to the U.S. in September. There's been maybe also some de minimis front-loading in August. did those bring any benefits to the profitability in Express in Q3 that may not repeat going forward? And the last one on Express, very useful the chart you offer with the weights into different regions. And looking at Q2 and Q3 and just focusing on Europe, weight down 3%, weight down 1%. If I compare it with the CTS ocean volumes into Europe, those have been growing around 10% year-over-year. Air freight capacity into Europe overall is also up high to low -- high single digit, low double digit. So I guess my question is a bit what do you think is driving the underperformance of Express versus ocean and air cargo only when we focus on Europe? Do you think it could be market share loss? Do you think it could be down trading or other factors that could explain that?
Melanie Kreis: Okay. So maybe starting with the third one. So the missing element in the comparison is the intra-European business, where obviously air and ocean freight statistics don't show what is happening intra-Europe, but that's a big part of our Express business, and that has clearly not been the most dynamic. So that explains the difference there. Staying with the trade lane questions. So yes, I mean, the fact that intra-Asia and Asia to Europe is developing more favorably, which is why others are apparently thinking about moving capacity there is ultimately a good thing because those trade lanes are strong trade lanes for us market position in terms of profitability. So I see it more positive if intra-Asia and Asia to Europe is developing favorably. And yes, I think overall, we haven't seen any crazy capacity movements leading to difficult pricing situations beyond the normal competitive dynamics.
Tobias Meyer: I would echo that. So this is good. We see ourselves in a very competitive situation, both intra-Asia. We sometimes say that Asia is DHL's second home and also Asia to Europe. So the trends that you're seeing that competitors are more interested in is something that we recognize and overall see as a positive message of this being a trade lanes where we can also can expect some growth in 2026. To your second question on the postal operators and the de minimis front loading, I think there might be small effects of that, but really not much. The de minimis front-loading, we -- others might have seen to a greater extent than we have. The postal operators, there might have been some shift for some time, but I think most of that volume just didn't show up. And we, as you are aware, have already now for several weeks, re established the postal channel to the United States Postal Service, which is particularly strong on the C2C side. So not much effect on Express in the third quarter as it relates to that.
Operator: Our next question comes from Muneeba Kayani with Bank of America.
Muneeba Kayani: I just wanted to understand your guidance that you've maintained and unpack some of the moving parts there because it's, of course, on the reported number and with all the one-offs. So you've got the EUR 178 million benefit on the accounting on e-commerce. That's certainly new for us. Was that something that you were expecting kind of already when you were giving your guidance maybe earlier in August? Similarly, on the cost of change, this was something you'd kind of highlighted and kind of we've taken into account into our numbers, but has that kind of impact of cost of change been different because of the phasing than what you had initially expected? And then lastly, on the de minimis kind of -- what have you accounted for into the year-end on that impact compared to that worst case of EUR 200 million. So if you could unpack those moving parts, that would be super helpful.
Tobias Meyer: I think in the de minimis for us, this is now part of the run rate. So the effect is there. We don't expect much further to move than what we now have. As Melanie laid out, the impact was smaller than the worst case, significantly smaller than the worst case, and it's now part of everyday life. As it relates to the guidance, overall, this will net out for the year. So we roughly stay to where we originally seen that. Obviously, there's now the impact quarter-by-quarter, and Melanie can further elaborate on that.
Melanie Kreis: Yes. I think if you put all the one-offs together, what we disclosed in Q2, what we disclosed in Q3, we currently have a net positive effect of a bit over EUR 40 million. We expect that to turn to a negative number because, as I said, we will have more cost of change now in the fourth quarter, and we don't anticipate a positive one-off in the fourth quarter. So if you say we have close to EUR 100 million in cost of change year-to-date. If you want to take that up to EUR 200 million, that gives you a feeling for the order of magnitude in the fourth quarter. So we should end the year with a negative contribution from one-offs for the full year.
Muneeba Kayani: And just kind of on your 3Q Express volumes and the B2C minus 23%. Can you give us a sense of how that was in the month and like what happened in September post the de minimis?
Tobias Meyer: So the swing that others might have seen was not as big for us. So I think you see over the quarters a pretty consistent trend, and we would not see much deviation from that trend.
Operator: Our final question comes from Marc Zeck with Kepler Cheuvreux.
Marc Zeck: One question left for me, maybe a bit on the P&P performance, I guess, that was good, certainly much higher than expected by the market. Is like EUR 200-plus million EBIT in the -- every quarter that is not Q4 kind of the run rate that you would expect now for the next year as well? I guess, we've seen the wage increases already for this quarter. So it seems like a pretty decent run rate. And with Q4 coming in, would it be fair that maybe you will end up in EBIT maybe more at the EUR 1.1 billion rather than the EUR 1.0 billion in P&P?
Tobias Meyer: So I think -- the recovery that we see this year is also because the last year was relatively weak. I think that's important to keep in mind. Overall, we see ourselves very well underway to deliver the guidance. For next year, Melanie already highlighted, this will be a year without regulatory price increases in Mail. So that provides some pricing headwind for 2026. We obviously have some freedom in parcel that will also adequately utilize. So similar to other elements that we talked about, we don't see a change of trends for P&P. We have some seasonality in that business as it relates to volume and also earnings, and we expect that to be a normal peak season. That's where everything is currently pointing at. We also have higher cost to deal with that. So a normal seasonal development is what we expect to close out Q4. And then again, obviously, some of the structural cost measures will carry forward, but the headwind on input factor cost and pricing will be a factor in 2026.
Operator: This concludes the Q&A session. I now hand it back to management for closing remarks.
Martin Ziegenbalg: All right. We're not too far away from the 60 minutes that we were looking for. Good news for the guys in Copenhagen, who are next. Tobias, your closing remarks, please.
Tobias Meyer: Well, it was an interesting quarter, and it, from our perspective, turned out quite well. We do not expect that volatility will go down. We will stay close to our customers. So first and foremost, impacted. It's easier to shift airplanes around than factories. We do see our narrative confirmed in terms of globalization not being derailed. There's clearly a deceleration relative to decades earlier, but especially in those areas that we focus on technology and the concentration of manufacturing due to economies of scale and economies of scale that continues to drive globalization and the growth of trade. And we are very focused on, a, staying close to our customers, adjusting capacity and remain fit in the institutional capability to do so. But secondly, to have enough time and management capacity to do what we clearly need to do to accelerate growth to execute on Strategy 2030, where we have more headwinds than we had originally anticipated from a macro environment. We talked intensively about that in this call as well. So there's clearly work to be done, but we remain optimistic about that and to a great extent, also excited about the opportunity that the world still offers to our company. With that, I thank you for your interest and the great questions that you post. Have a great day.
Operator: This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.