DXS.AXDXS.AXASX
Loading
Operator: Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the DEXUS HY '26 Results Briefing. [Operator Instructions] There will be a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session. I would now like to hand the conference over to Ross Du Vernet, Group CEO and Managing Director. Please go ahead.
Ross Du Vernet: Well, good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for our half year 2026 results presentation. I'd like to begin today by acknowledging the traditional custodians of the lands and waterways upon which we operate and pay our respects to elders past and present. Today, you'll hear from Keir on the financials, Andy on office, Chris on Industrial and Michael on Funds Management. Concluding the presentation, I'll provide a summary and open up to any questions that you may have. DEXUS is a unique investment proposition in the Australasian real asset market. Today, we manage $51 billion of assets across our platform with third-party funds under management at 2.4x our investment portfolio. We have scale and diversity across the real asset spectrum, $20 billion in office and around $10 billion in each industrial, retail and growth markets, which includes infrastructure, health care and alternatives. This scale is underpinned by our multidisciplinary team with deep expertise across each sector. Importantly, we have access to diverse pools of equity capital, which positions us well to capitalize on opportunities through the cycle. Our strategy is unchanged and our vision to be globally recognized as Australasia's leading real asset manager continues to guide our decisions. The strategy targets large growing markets, leveraging our multi-sector strengths in transacting, managing and developing across each. Our high-quality balance sheet portfolio, together with a large diversified funds management business continues to differentiate us. Today, the investment portfolio is anchored by prime office exposure across Australia's major CBDs. Over time, the investment portfolio will continue to become more diversified by investing alongside capital partners into a diverse range of opportunities. Our culture, the quality and scale of the portfolio and projects we have underway, coupled with our approach to people, enable us to attract, retain and develop leading talent to ultimately create value for customers, clients and you, our investors. Turning to our results. We delivered AFFO of $253 million and distributions per security of $0.193. This was the second consecutive six-month period of positive property portfolio valuations, which supported the delivery of a statutory net profit and an increase in NTA to $8.95 per security. Our office leasing volumes were almost double that of levels achieved in the prior corresponding half, including further progress at Waterfront in Brisbane, which is now 71% pre-leased and will deliver a premium product in the strong Brisbane office market. Our industrial portfolio, as we expected, delivered strong like-for-like growth and re-leasing spreads. We undertook $800 million of divestments for the balance sheet, including the recently agreed divestment of 100 Mount Street in North Sydney. If we turn to the funds business, we continue to work through some fund-specific matters while positioning the business for long-term success. Our flagship funds continue to outperform, DWPF outperforming its benchmark across all time periods, while DWSF, the Shopping Center Fund has outperformed since joining the platform. We raised over $950 million of equity, comprised $640 million of new equity commitments and the facilitation of more than $280 million in secondary unit transactions. We established a new fund series. We closed DREP2 above its initial target, and we continue to rationalize subscale funds to simplify the platform. In August, I outlined our action items for FY '26, aligned to our three strategic priority areas of transitioning the balance sheet, maximizing the contribution of the funds business and unlocking our deep sector expertise. In addition to the progress I mentioned on the previous slide, key development milestones were achieved at Waterfront in Brisbane. The DEXUS office and industrial portfolios delivered positive total returns over the 12-month period. And DEXUS has now secured $1.4 billion of divestments since 30 June 2024, progressing well towards our $2 billion target. We invested $170 million of seed capital into DSIT1, a new fund series, which we aim to reduce to $50 million during the year. We've reduced the real estate redemption queue by $1 billion. And post the APAC court date scheduled for April this year, we expect to make more progress on solving infrastructure redemptions. Overall, we've made solid progress and remain focused on the priorities that will position the business for long-term success. Our sustainability strategy focuses on three priority areas where we can make the greatest impact across climate action, customer prosperity and enhancing communities. Sustainability remains core to how we operate, and we continue to receive global recognition for our performance. Thank you, and I'll now pass you over to Keir.
Keir Barnes: Thanks, Ross, and good morning, everyone. Turning to the results in detail. In line with expectations, total AFFO was $253 million, with a distribution of $0.193 per security, reflecting a payout ratio of 82%. Office FFO reduced primarily due to divestments and lower average occupancy, partly offset by contracted rent increases. Industrial portfolio income increased due to higher occupancy, development completions and contracted rent increases, partly offset by divestments. FFO from management operations decreased due to lower FUM as a result of divestments and slightly lower performance fees, with $19 million realized in the first half and $16 million secured for the second half. Finance costs were broadly flat with a higher cost of debt offset by higher interest income. As expected, trading profits were higher with the sale of Brookhollow, Chester Hill and continuing construction at Prestons, securing FY '26 guidance. Maintenance and leasing CapEx is skewed to the first half of the year, mainly due to the impact of incentives on deals secured in prior periods as well as the timing of maintenance CapEx. Looking ahead to FY '27, performance fees and trading profits are expected to be materially lower than FY '26. It has been positive to see the second six-month period of valuation growth across the office and industrial portfolios. Overall, for the six months to 31 December, the portfolio increased by 1%. Capitalization rates have stabilized with the valuation movement predominantly driven by rental growth. Our office portfolio, which is 77% weighted to core CBD markets increased by 0.7% and our industrial portfolio, which is 90% weighted to core industrial estates and distribution centers increased by 1.6%. Pleasingly, these outcomes demonstrate the quality of the portfolio. Moving to capital management. Our balance sheet remains solid with look-through gearing towards the lower end of the 30% to 40% target range, providing capacity to fund committed expenditure. During the half, we issued $500 million of subordinated notes at attractive rates and diversifying our funding sources. We have been active with refinancing, resulting in a weighted average debt maturity of 4.6 years, $2.5 billion of headroom and manageable near-term debt maturities. 95% of our debt was hedged during the half at an average rate of 2.9%, providing material interest rate protection. Looking forward, there's $1.2 billion of remaining spend on the committed development pipeline over the next four years, with $360 million expected to be incurred in the second half of FY '26. Thank you, and I'll now hand over to Andy.
Andy Collins: Thanks, Keir, and good morning, everyone. I'll now take you through the performance of our office portfolio. We continue to own and manage the best office portfolio in Australia. Over the past five years, we have enhanced the quality and resilience of our portfolio. And as a consequence, we are well positioned to benefit from the market recovery that is now underway. Location remains a key differentiator, demonstrated by our portfolio occupancy of 92.2%, which remains well above the market average. Our average incentives of 29% are below market, reflecting the quality of our portfolio and notably, leasing deals done in Perth, Brisbane and North Sydney, where market incentives remain elevated. The effective like-for-like income decline of 2.3% primarily reflects downtime on select vacancies, including 80 Collins Street and 30 Hickson Road, and we expect this to improve into the full year. Our leasing activity was strong this half with leasing volumes of over 95,000 square meters, almost double the volumes achieved in the prior corresponding period. The portfolio delivered a one-year total return of 5.7% at December, reflecting the improved market conditions. Looking at our expiry profile, we aim to have no more than 13% of the portfolio expire in any single year. FY '27 expiries have improved to 12.3% following the recent divestment of 100 Mount Street with key expiries remaining in Australia Square and 385 Bourke Street. We remain focused on addressing the more challenging vacancies at 80 Collins Street in Melbourne, which represents 2.2% of portfolio income and 30 Hickson Road in Sydney's Western Corridor at 1.5% of income. While there is no conclusive answer regarding the potential impact of AI on office markets, we believe different parts of the workforce are likely to be affected unevenly. Our view is that high-value professional work, the kind concentrated in premium CBD buildings, reflecting the majority of our portfolio will be the most resilient to AI replacement risk and may even benefit and grow. We frequently monitor our customer base, which is well diversified with an average tenancy size of 1,000 square meters and our top 10 customers account for just 20% of our total property portfolio income. The staggered expiry profile, combined with our diversified tenant base, supports resilient income streams across the portfolio. Our development pipeline provides the opportunity to further enhance portfolio quality. Construction is progressing at Atlassian Central in Sydney with completion on schedule for late 2026. This development is 100% pre-leased on a 15-year lease with 4% per annum fixed increases in what is now an improving Sydney market. At Waterfront Brisbane, we have achieved an important development milestone with the Riverwalk opening earlier this month and the vertical structure coming out of the ground. The Brisbane market continues to strengthen with a positive outlook over the medium term. Pleasingly, Waterfront is now 71% pre-leased with the recent leasing deal reflecting a 40% improvement in net effective rent compared to the previous Waterfront deal struck two years ago. In aggregate, 83% of the committed development book is pre-leased with contracted 3.7% average fixed increases per annum, providing a secure income stream once complete. We have fixed price contracts in place with Tier 1 contractors with material collateral and security arrangements to protect against construction risk. A very high threshold applies to projects in our uncommitted development pipeline and Central Place Sydney has moved out of our uncommitted pipeline as the scheme is reconsidered. Turning to the office outlook. The evidence continues to suggest that we have passed the bottom of the cycle and are now in the early stages of a recovery. Office demand continues to gain momentum, driven by employment growth, return to work mandates and centralization trends. Net absorption has been positive across all four major CBDs with the strongest absorption in premium grade assets, which is exactly where our portfolio is positioned. Sublease space has continued to reduce and is now close to average levels. Importantly, upcoming office supply is low relative to long-term averages. This provides scope for vacancy rates to fall and rents to grow. Within our own portfolio, we are seeing examples of 15% net effective rent growth on comparable lease deals struck 12 months apart. Looking at our rental growth expectations over the next three years, we expect strong growth across all major markets with Brisbane and Sydney Premium leading the way, followed by solid growth in Sydney A-grade, Melbourne Premium and Perth. The Sydney CBD core is now 95% occupied with DEXUS at 98%. With the seven-year delay in new supply, there is meaningful upside to the Sydney premium forecast. DEXUS is well positioned to capture this upswing given our portfolio quality and location in core precincts of the major CBDs. Thank you. I'll now hand you over to Chris.
Chris Mackenzie: Thanks, Andy, and good morning, everyone. Our industrial portfolio has delivered a strong result, including a one-year total return of 8.8%. Occupancy by income increased to 97% following leasing success across Sydney, Melbourne and Perth, which also resulted in like-for-like income strengthening to 8.7% as expected. Occupancy by area of 97.5% remains above the national average. We achieved strong re-leasing spreads of 33% across the stabilized portfolio. Average incentives increased to 21.5%, primarily driven by lease-up of key expiries in Melbourne's West and Sydney's Outer West. The portfolio is 8.9% under-rented and 20% is set to access rental reversion upon expiry by FY '27. On developments, we completed 102,000 square meters during the period, with construction continuing across a further 110,000 square meters. We leased 63,000 square meters across 10 development deals and 68% of our committed development book is now pre-leased with contracted annual increases of around 3%. Moving to our expiry profile. We have leased 24% of the portfolio over the past 18 months, derisking the expiry profile and capturing strong re-leasing spreads. We remain focused on leasing key vacancies at Matraville, which has now been repositioned along with Gillman. And we are in active discussions with potential tenants on both of these properties. The vacancies we have experienced over the past 18 months have been in older stock in New South Wales and Victoria. And pleasingly, we have achieved strong re-leasing results. Looking forward, 80% of our FY '27 expiries are represented by younger prime assets and provide the opportunity for positive reversion. Turning to the outlook. Supply under construction has moderated and remains at or below historic average take-up in all markets, while the picture for demand remains supported by strong Australian population growth, enhanced by e-commerce growth. Our portfolio with its focus on core industrial estates in strategic locations is well positioned to benefit from these trends. Thank you. I'll now hand over to Michael.
Michael Sheffield: Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Our funds business manages $36 billion in third-party capital across a diverse range of real asset strategies for more than 150 institutional clients with retail and wholesale investors. We've maintained prudent capital structures across our pooled funds with average gearing remaining conservative at around 32%. We have both returned capital and raised equity in existing and new products, but the near-term revenue impact of providing liquidity is still working its way through. While there is more to do, we are positioning ourselves to capture the strong expected growth in pension capital over the medium term. Last year, we launched a new investment series focused on high-quality assets for long-term value creation, with the first fund in the series securing a 25% interest in Westfield Chermside. Offshore capital, particularly from Asia, is increasingly interested in Australian real estate with the office sector also seeing renewed interest. In the six months to December, we've reduced the real estate redemption queue by around $1 billion, and we continue to rationalize subscale funds. We expect to make further progress on infrastructure redemptions post the APAC court case scheduled for April 2026 with mediation to occur in March '26. We raised over $950 million in third-party equity, including facilitating more than $280 million in secondary unit transactions. DWPF continues to outperform its benchmark across all time periods, outperforming by circa 200 basis points for the 12 months to 31 December. This highlights the quality of the underlying portfolio and our active management approach. And the shops fund has also outperformed its benchmark since joining the DEXUS platform. And while operating -- while the operating environment remains challenging with some continued pressure in the near term, we are steadily repositioning the business for long-term scalability and growth. Thank you, and I'll now hand you back to Ross.
Ross Du Vernet: Thanks, Michael. Underlying real estate markets continue to improve, supported by positive business confidence, constrained supply pipelines, stabilization in asset prices and improvement in transaction volumes. Barring unforeseen circumstances for the 12 months ending 30 June 2026, we reaffirm our expectations for AFFO of $0.445 to $0.455 per security and distributions of $0.37 per security. With valuations turning positive, transaction and fundraising markets recovering, our confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the business have strengthened. We are actively exploring opportunities to enhance returns and capital efficiency by increasing third-party capital participation in the $13 billion property portfolio. This would release capital in addition to the $2 billion divestment target. With the sustained disconnect between our equity market valuation and that of our underlying assets and businesses, we have activated an on-market securities buyback of up to 10% of DEXUS securities. We will execute the buyback at a pace consistent with maintaining balance sheet discipline as we progress asset sales and other initiatives to release capital. Thank you. That ends the formal part of today's presentation. I'll now take any questions that you may have.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Adam West from JPMorgan.
Adam West: I guess my first question today is just on the Atlassian development. I'm just wondering if you progressed any plans for a partial sell-down -- full sell-down of that asset?
Ross Du Vernet: Adam, thanks for your question. This is certainly an asset that we have flagged that we'll be looking to introduce third-party capital into. I think we've been pretty consistent with the market that we think the best time for that is closer to practical completion. That is slated for the end of the year. We think it's a great investment product, 15-year lease fixed 4% increases. And so yes, that's one of the assets that we will be bringing third-party capital in over the course of the year. It might not happen before practical completion, but it will be towards the end of the year.
Adam West: And I guess just my second question on the office portfolio. In terms of the core Sydney CBD portfolio in particular, I'm just wondering if you could talk to how much under-renting would potentially be in that segment.
Ross Du Vernet: Andy, that's one for you.
Andy Collins: Yes. No problem. Adam. So look, re-leasing spreads were positive in all of the CBDs, including Sydney CBD. And so re-leasing spreads obviously impact the extent to which the portfolio is over and under-rented. We're seeing a pattern of better effective re-leasing spreads driving or reducing the extent to which the portfolio is over-rented on an effective basis. And so the portfolio generally is around 7.5% over-rented on an effective basis. That's come in from 12.5% 12 months ago. And it's about 4.5% under-rented on a face basis, which is pretty stable with 12 months ago.
Operator: The next question comes from Cody Shield from UBS.
Cody Shield: Just firstly, on the buyback. My understanding was that you need to do more than $2 billion of divestments to get the buyback away. Is that still the case? Or are you sticking with that $2 billion target?
Ross Du Vernet: I think we're very resolved around the $2 billion target. And I think what we're flagging is we see real value in the security price where it's trading. We instituted a pretty disciplined capital allocation framework when I stepped into the chair. Dare I say that has regard to the return on the investments we already have and also marginal uses of capital. So we are definitely resolved we're going to get through that $2 billion target. And as I have shared in my concluding remarks, we are actively looking at bringing third-party capital into the $13 billion investment portfolio. That has the potential to release a significant amount of capital. And certainly, given where we're trading today, the buyback would be a really good use of that.
Cody Shield: Okay. That's clear. And then just turning to the leasing at Waterfront, looks like a good outcome. Just wondering whether there's some flex in that 5% to 6% yield on cost that you're targeting?
Ross Du Vernet: I think I've been pretty clear. I always kind of think we're going to be at the higher end of that range, and there's always scope for us to outperform. We're really pleased. We have great belief in that product. I think that is validated and the strategy of the team to be kind of patient and wait for the market to come to us on the leasing there. So I think that's a tremendous validation of the product and the leasing strategy from Andy and the team. I would also kind of just flag that even at that yield on cost, we're going to be materially under-rented in that asset just given how much the market has moved. So I think there's going to be a great ultimate return for our security holders and DWPF, which is our co-investor there. And yes, I would like to kind of see the team surprise on the upside.
Operator: The next question comes from Simon Chan from Morgan Stanley.
Simon Chan: My first question relates to the buyback. guys. How much of the buyback do you think you'll actually do in the second half of fiscal year '26? And if you are genuine about kicking off the buyback in the second half of fiscal year '26, I would have thought there's scope for you to change your earnings guidance for the year because you're buying back stock at essentially 10% earnings yield and your cost of debt is 5%.
Ross Du Vernet: So maybe I'll take the question in two parts. Are we serious about the buyback? The short answer is yes. I think it's not just a statement of intent, but we see real value in the company where it's trading. We see a disconnect. We have a very high-quality portfolio. Valuations have troughed. We see valuations moving north from here. And I think the market is fixated on maybe EPS growth and some noise in the business, be that developments or litigation, those sorts of things. So we see good value at the current level. We need to make sure that as we're executing that buyback, we're doing it in a disciplined way that we have regard to the balance sheet strength, which is really important to us. But I think I am getting more confident around the transaction market. It is improving. And certainly, I think bringing third-party capital into the platform and the confidence we have in doing that, there is scope for us to release a lot of capital. And as I said in previous responses, I think the buyback is a really good use of capital at current levels. So I can't predict where the stock price is going to be in three months' time, and we're not going to put that into guidance. But certainly, at current -- trading at current levels, if we can be more active on capital recycling, I think you're going to see us being very active.
Simon Chan: Okay. Fair enough. My second question, in Slide 17, and I think Andy Collins might have touched on this. That's that last bullet point, high threshold to commence new development projects. I think he referred to that after talking about scrapping central place. What's your new threshold now? Like are you going to have a -- have you guys done the review and have settled on a high yield on cost hurdle before you kick anything off? Can you talk to that, please?
Ross Du Vernet: I would say coming back to our capital allocation framework, this is something that is constantly assessed. And when we kind of look at alternative uses of capital, including things like a buyback, which we've announced today, there is a very high threshold for us to start new projects. So that's not to say that we're not going to do it, but where we do it, it needs to be capital efficient. We need positive economics from the management enterprise, and we need to believe that the underlying projects are going to deliver really good risk-adjusted returns. So -- that's how we...
Simon Chan: I get that Ross. But previously, Central Place was -- you were guiding to, I think, 5% to 6% yield on cost and you've now scrapped it. So can I assume that 5% to 6% no longer custom?
Ross Du Vernet: I think that's probably fair to say 5% to 6% yield on cost kind of depending on where cap rates are is a pretty skinny development margin. So that's not a good use of shareholder capital, and we won't be committing projects on that basis.
Operator: The next question comes from Andrew Dodds from Jefferies.
Andrew Dodds: In the remarks, you noted that $1 billion of real estate redemptions were satisfied in the period. I'd just be interested to hear where that redemption backlog is sitting today. I think it was around $3 billion back in the August results.
Michael Sheffield: Andrew. Yes, redemptions are around about $2 billion. We satisfied about $1.5 billion during the half year period. And they're now around evenly spread between real estate and the infrastructure exposures. And infrastructure will obviously be dealt with in line with the APAC court case resolution, which isn't too far away. So our expectation is that the current redemptions will likely be dealt with within 12 months.
Andrew Dodds: All right. That's a good outcome. And then just secondly, on trading profits, the expectation this year was for $40 million post tax. It looks like you have done that alone in the first half. So I guess just the expectations for the second half. And also just in FY '27, the slide on Page 59 in the presentation sort of shows pretty minimal opportunities for trading profits. So I mean, is it pretty safe to assume that there won't be any contribution in '27?
Ross Du Vernet: Look, I might take the comment on '27 and Keir can talk to '26. I think what we're providing is in guidance that as we sit here today, the realization of meaningful trading profits and they have been a meaningful contributor in '26, the likelihood of that recurring in '27 at this point in time seems lower probability, and we're flagging that to the market. What I would say on trading profits is I am confident in the value creation that sits in projects that we currently have under our control and development in the trading book. I think it is just a matter of timing and the decisions that we're going to make in terms of the realization of those profits. So I think that's how I'm thinking about '27. But Keir, do you want to comment on '26?
Keir Barnes: Sure. Thanks, Ross. So you are correct. The vast majority of trading profits have been realized in the first half. There will be a very immaterial amount coming through in the second half. So I wouldn't factor too much into your forecast. We're still expecting circa $41 million for the full year.
Operator: The next question comes from Adam Calvetti from Bank of America.
Adam Calvetti: Just on Atlassian, I mean, there's $610 million to spend, it's well above the current run rate that you've been spending CapEx at. I mean is there any financial implications if this was to be delayed?
Andy Collins: Yes. So, Adam, it's Andy. So under the contract, it's a fixed price contract. We have the protections in the event of a delay. So from that respect, it's typical for a development like that. Are you -- is there more to your question from a financing perspective?
Adam Calvetti: No, just any financial implications for DEXUS and then whether it's with the actual tenant, if that was to be delayed, it sounds like there's not.
Andy Collins: Yes, that's correct.
Adam Calvetti: Okay. And then just on office, I mean, of that 80-odd or 90,000 that you did over the half, I mean, how many tenants are expanding versus contracting in size?
Andy Collins: Yes. Good question, Adam. So just like the breakdown of that leasing volume, about 20% is tenants upgrading. That's the first thing to note. About half of the tenants by area reflect renewals. That's the second thing to note. And in terms of growth, there are some great examples of tenants within the portfolio growing going from one tenant. One example is in 25 Martin Place, a financial services tenant going from one floor to two. And there are others with smaller tenants coming out of incubators, small suites moving up the curve into larger suites. And so that's about 25%.
Adam Calvetti: But just to clarify that, so 20% upgrading, half are renewing and 30% are contracting?
Andy Collins: I didn't say contracting, sorry, Adam. So you need to look at those proportions independently of one another. To answer your question directly, about 25% of tenants we dealt with grew.
Operator: The next question comes from Ben Brayshaw from Barrenjoey.
Benjamin Brayshaw: Could you just talk about the rationale for the issuance of the subordinated notes during the period, the $500 million? And could you also clarify the margin achieved on that new debt, please?
Keir Barnes: Sure. Thanks for your question, Ben. So the issue of the sub-notes, I'd say that was a very prudent and opportunistic capital management initiative. It provides us with enhanced financial flexibility to pursue investment initiatives, certainly those with pretty attractive risk-adjusted returns whilst our planned capital recycling is ongoing. In terms of spreads, I mean, you'll have seen DCM spreads have narrowed and the sub-senior spread is now at historically tight margins. So the 5.25-year notes were issued at 1.75% over three-month BBSW and the 8.25 were swapped back to floating, and they reflected an initial margin of 1.85% over three-month BBSW.
Benjamin Brayshaw: And will you receive equity credit from your rating agencies for those notes?
Keir Barnes: That's right. We will. 50% equity credit.
Benjamin Brayshaw: Terrific. And just in relation to your comments, Ross, on becoming more capital efficient to build the balance sheet portfolio. Do you have a target interest in mind in so far as ownership that you would like to maintain across the assets that you bring in capital partners for?
Ross Du Vernet: Look, that's -- it's going to be considered on a case-by-case basis. I think the reality is we have a really high-quality portfolio. There's lots of options for us. We have existing JVs, which are 50-50, which we can bring third-party capital into. And we have existing assets that we own and control that we can establish new strategies around. So I think it's going to kind of depend on what clients want. And ultimately, we're going to run a bunch of options concurrently and choose those which are best for DEXUS security holders. I wouldn't see a scenario where if these are high-quality assets, which they are, we don't want to -- we want to have a meaningful aligned interest with our clients. So that's, call it, in the range of 10% to 20% would be kind of at the bottom end.
Benjamin Brayshaw: Okay. And would Waterfront Place and Atlassian potentially form part of those capital and partnering transactions?
Ross Du Vernet: I'm not going to be specific on assets, but I would say, as a general principle, we are open to looking at every asset in the platform and we'll be, as I say, running options concurrently to assess what is the best outcome for DEXUS security holders having regard to, to be frank, what we sell, but also the redeployment and what's left afterwards.
Operator: The next question comes from Tom Bodor from Jarden.
Tom Bodor: I just was interested in the passing yield on the circa $800 million of divestments.
Ross Du Vernet: I don't know that we have that one to hand. We might come back to you on that.
Tom Bodor: Okay. But I mean if I take something like 100 Mount Street, is it fair to assume that it's relatively high passing yield?
Keir Barnes: There's a reasonable passing yield. I would say that asset has got a reasonable amount of CapEx coming in the next few years. So we think divesting at these levels is an attractive decision at this point in time.
Tom Bodor: Okay. And then on the Waterfront project, just would be interested, can you confirm that you've allocated 100% of the podium costs to the first tower? Or have you pro rata it based on the square meters of the towers above or some other formula?
Keir Barnes: So when we look at the total project costs that are quoted in the appendix, the cost of the podium is in the Stage 1 cost. In terms of the yield on cost, we strip that out, and we can go into a little bit more detail later today, if you'd like, around the methodology. But we take that out in terms of calculating the yield on cost for Stage 1, but it is included in the yield on cost that we quote for Stage 2.
Tom Bodor: Okay. And then I guess just following on from that, in light of the positive momentum you've had on leasing there in that first tower, how do you think about the potential to get the second tower going in the next couple of years? Or is it really too early at this point to consider that?
Ross Du Vernet: Look, I think that's a quality problem to have given the opportunities that we have in the portfolio. But I refer to Andy's earlier comments as a high threshold to commence. New development projects will be somewhat guided on that project as well by our partner there, which is the wholesale fund, DWPF. I think as there is increasing flow and interest from capital, that might be something that we reassess over the next 12 months, and there's certainly going to be some synergies in keeping continuity of contractor on site. So it's not really a decision for today. I'll just kind of make the point that for DXS, it's marginal capital, it's going to be a high threshold. So that is going to be a gating issue for us.
Operator: The next question comes from David Pobucky from Macquarie Group.
David Pobucky: Just a follow-up on the buyback and how you're thinking about balancing the buyback development and growth initiatives. I mean, DEXUS reset its target payout ratio, I think, almost a couple of years ago now to retain more capital for growth. So perhaps if you could talk a bit more about some of those growth initiatives you're working on, please?
Ross Du Vernet: Look, I would certainly like to be growing the business more. And I think the market is increasingly conducive to where we kind of see the cycle and we see flow of capital from clients. But the reality is, given where we're trading is DEXUS security prices are really compelling proposition. So to be frank, new projects and opportunities are going to compete with that. So as long as we're trading at these levels, that's a pretty high bar. I would like to think -- and if I kind of take a step back, we have a significant balance sheet. And so the scope for us to undertake considerable capital recycling and releasing a lot of capital by bringing third parties into that investment portfolio actually, I think, gives us scope to do both. But obviously, we'll be assessing all those opportunities on a case-by-case basis at that point in time. So I can't predict where the share price is going to be. All I can say is as I sit here today, it looks very attractive from a marginal use of capital.
David Pobucky: Just second question on Office. You saw a modest improvement in incentives in the period. Would you say FY '26 is the peak year for incentives? And what's the expectation around when that starts flowing through to earnings?
Andy Collins: Well, David, just in terms of market incentives, so we've seen vacancy peak in Sydney and in Brisbane and in Perth. Vacancy is expected to peak in Melbourne shortly, next 12 months. And so that should flow through to market incentives. And of course, our incentives, we try to manage them lower than that market number.
Keir Barnes: I think if we're thinking about just the pure dollar spend in terms of incentives. So I would expect this year, CapEx will be sort of probably a little bit below what it was in '25, but is expected to be higher in '27 off the back of the strong leasing that the team has been doing.
Operator: The next question comes from Howard Penny from Citi.
Howard Penny: I just wanted to ask about the equity raising. So they raised -- you guys raised $640 million in third-party equity commitments and $280 million secondary unit transactions. Could you describe where the equity interest is coming from domestic, international? And maybe just as far as possible, give us some background as to where these equity inflows are coming from?
Michael Sheffield: Sure, Howard. We've seen a wide variety of interest from -- we've got a diversified platform with different channels of capital, and it's safe to say there's a wide variety of interest that, that attracts. So we've seen increasing interest from offshore investors, particularly in the pooled funds. And then from a domestic investor perspective, what they're increasingly looking to do is partner with us in some of our initiatives. So the DDIT trust, which was launched is the first in a series, and we've seen very, very pleasing demand from investors to essentially come into a club. That's been largely domestic, but I would say we've got a wide variety of interest from a wide variety of areas at the moment.
Howard Penny: And my second question is just on cost of debt and where you see that potentially peaking over the next 2 years and refinancing risk on that?
Keir Barnes: Thanks, Howard. I'll take that one. So the cost of debt, you'll have seen has increased. It went from 4.2% up to 4.7% for this half. I expect for the full year, we'll be sitting at the high 4s next year, sort of 5-ish. So we are pretty close to market at this point. In terms of refinancing risk, very minimal expiries coming up. We have been very proactive with refinancing. We just did more than $1 billion on average at about 15 basis points, tighter rates and an increase in tenor. So we will continue to take a proactive stance with our refinancings.
Operator: The next question comes from James Druce from CLSA.
James Druce: I was hoping you could comment just on the bucket of performance fees that you might have. I noticed you have the second half secured. I was just trying to get a sense of what's left after that.
Ross Du Vernet: Is that -- sorry, in relation to '26? Or what's the longer-term outlook for performance fees, just to clarify?
James Druce: Yes. You've got the second half secured. So I'm just wondering how you're looking for '27 and '28. Are there things behind that, that can come through? Or is this sort of a strong year for performance fees...
Ross Du Vernet: So, the significant contributions in, to be frank, '25 and '26 was there was an infrastructure performance fee on a mandate that was crystallized on the sale, and there was a significant outperformance in the industrial strategy, the DALT portfolio, which was realized over a couple of periods. So I would say they were at the kind of the larger end of the scale. We are trying to introduce performance fees into new strategies and initiatives. They're not going to be straight line. They are going to be a little bit lumpy. And I think what we're kind of flagging is as we look towards '27, that level of kind of contribution is unlikely at this point in time.
James Druce: Yes. Okay. That's helpful. And just interested in your Slide 18, just looking at the net effective rent forecast. I was sort of wondering, have you incorporated any AI impact into those forecasts? And how do you think about the sort of the uncertainty or dispersion that could create over the next 3 years?
Ross Du Vernet: I just generally in relation to dispersion, we've kind of been calling this for a while we see increased dispersion in performance in assets across, I would say, both real estate and infrastructure. And to be frank, the better assets we think are going to do better and there will be assets that potentially get stranded or left behind. I think the good thing for us is whether it be in the balance sheet portfolio or our funds, we generally have those high-quality assets in those premium locations. So I'd say at a group level, we feel well positioned. And these are difficult things to predict. But Andy, I know you've got some views on this.
Andy Collins: Yes. So I think difficult to predict is right. So in terms of how AI lands, no one really knows right now, but we -- what we're seeing in our portfolio through engagement with our customers is that it is resulting in some of our customers growing. And so I'll use an example where a law firm following implementation of an AI augmentation program actually leased more space because they could adjust their ratio of lawyers to non-lawyers. And so they needed more space. That's one anecdote. You can't apply that to the whole portfolio or to the market. But I think it's not as simple as drawing a straight line between AI implementation and like a blanket adjustment to office demand.
Ross Du Vernet: And I would say, thematically, we do kind of see that the nature of work that is more likely to be impacted by AI is typically going to be middle or back office functions. And those -- that work is typically going to be in the suburban markets. And that is not a space that we are particularly exposed to.
Operator: The next question comes from Yingqi Tan from Morningstar.
Yingqi Tan: My first question is in regards to that $1 billion redemptions. Just wondering if you are able to quantify how much of these are secondary transactions and how much is of this funding actually left the platform?
Michael Sheffield: So during the half, about $1.5 billion was set aside. Most of that was in -- there was also a special redemption in the shops fund. And then as we said, about $280 million of that was through secondary transactions, so obviously stayed on the platform and the rest were units being redeemed. So those units disappear.
Yingqi Tan: And with the money that has been redeemed, could you also share whether it's sold to any external parties? Or is it I guess, within DEXUS other platform?
Michael Sheffield: Essentially, the process is we free up cash to meet redemptions. So we'll sell assets or use debt. So by virtue of the fact that there's assets being sold, that would be off the platform. And to the extent it's debt, well, it's just an increase in debt in the fund.
Yingqi Tan: That's clear. And my second question is to Andy. Would you be able to share what the office leasing spreads were in the past six months for the deals that you have achieved?
Andy Collins: Yes, no problem. So face spreads were positive across all markets. For our portfolio, the face spread was up 9%. The effective spread trajectory has come in from 16% or negative 16% to negative 10% to now negative 5%. So just to clarify, the effective spread on the leasing that we've done in the first half is negative 5%, which is a material improvement. So in terms of the submarkets, in Brisbane, we achieved positive 10% effective spreads.
Operator: The next question is a follow-up from Adam Calvetti from Bank of America.
Adam Calvetti: Ross, I just wanted to follow up on your comments made to Simon earlier on the 5% to 6% yield on cost guidance, essentially not cutting the mustard, I think, is the term. I mean I'm looking at the uncommitted developments, we're still quoting 5% to 6% for Waterfront, 80 Collins and Pitt and Bridge. Does that mean to get revised going forward?
Ross Du Vernet: We're not committing those projects yet, I think that's a question for when we're committing those.
Adam Calvetti: Is that a target range? Or I mean why is that in there?
Ross Du Vernet: I think we'll assess those when we're kind of close to the start line. Things like Pitt and Bridge Street are still years away. And the reality is they are income-producing assets. So it's not a decision for today. I think what we're -- the yield on cost is and we think about development margins, we have to have regard to where we think stabilized cap rates are. Again, that's an assessment that we kind of think we need to make at the time of starting those projects. So rest assured, if we're deploying capital into development projects, we're going to need to be compensated for the risk and it's going to meet our internal hurdles.
Operator: At this time, we're showing no further questions. I'll hand the conference back to Ross for any closing remarks.
Ross Du Vernet: Thanks, everyone. Enjoy the day, and we'll catch up with you over the next few weeks.