10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $12.4B | $13.1B | $14.8B | $15.3B | $16.2B |
| EBIT | $4.0B | $4.2B | $4.8B | $4.9B | $5.2B |
| Tax | $817M | $859M | $973M | $1.0B | $1.1B |
| NOPAT | $3.2B | $3.4B | $3.8B | $3.9B | $4.2B |
| + Depreciation | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B |
| - Capex | $1.9B | $1.7B | $1.6B | $1.3B | $889M |
| - Δ NWC | $30M | $30M | $8M | $10M | $12M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.5B | $2.9B | $3.7B | $4.1B | $4.9B |
| Discount Factor | 0.945 | 0.844 | 0.754 | 0.673 | 0.568 |
| Present Value | $2.4B | $2.5B | $2.8B | $2.8B | $2.8B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 3.81% | $497.59 | $553.75 | $593.48 | $568.89 | $545.46 |
| 4.81% | $394.93 | $421.46 | $457.42 | $508.93 | $545.46 |
| 5.81% | $330.00 | $344.82 | $363.53 | $387.88 | $420.90 |
| 6.81% | $283.94 | $293.09 | $304.14 | $317.76 | $334.94 |
| 7.81% | $248.87 | $254.91 | $261.99 | $270.41 | $280.57 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Energy Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth6.74%
Year 3 Revenue Growth6.43%
Year 5 Revenue Growth1.42%
Year 7 Revenue Growth1.65%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin32.39%
Tax Rate20.29%
Historical Capex / Rev14.90%
Terminal Capex / Rev5.50%
NWC / Revenue3.86%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Energy sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.