GEST.MCGEST.MCBME
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Ana Fuentes: Good evening, and thank you very much for taking the time to attend Gestamp 2025 Full Year Results Presentation on what I know is a super busy for many of you. I'm Ana Fuentes, M&A and IR Director. Before we begin, let me refer you to the disclaimer on Slide #2 of this presentation, which has been posted on our website and that set out the legal framework, under which this presentation must be considered. The conference call will be led by our Executive Chairman, Mr. Francisco Riberas; and our CFO, Mr. Ignacio Mosquera. As usual, at the end of this conference call, we'll open the floor for Q&A session. Now please let me hand the call over to our Executive Chairman.
Francisco Jose Riberas de Mera: So good afternoon, and thanks for attending this call with us in this busy day. So moving forward, overall, 2025 has been a good year for Gestamp by year, which has been marked by a complex context with the global tariff war that is still alive with many regulatory changes in different geographies, but mainly in U.S. and Europe. A year also with the major OEMs realigning their strategies to slower EV adoption and also with a limited growth in terms of volumes everywhere, but in China or India. In this context, Gestamp has focused on delivering a strong set of results in 2025, taking action in order to align our exposure to EV programs in line with our customers and enhancing our balance sheet profile with more -- adding more flexibility and more optionality for us in the future and of course, also delivering in our commitment for North America in the frame of the Phoenix Plan. In terms of the market, in terms of global manufacturing of light vehicles in our footprint has had limited volumes, again, another year, but probably volumes which were better -- which have been better than initially forecasted. In fact, by February 2025, we were expecting volumes in 2025 to be very much in line with 2024. Then when the tariff war started in April, the forecast was reduced. But at the end of the year, final volume has been around 85.5 million. So that meaning around a 4% increase. So a growth, clear growth, but only driven by Asia. In fact, between China mainly and India, the growth has been around 3.5 million units comparing with 2024 and it's been again a decrease in Europe and also in this case, in this year in North America. So moving to Slide 6. And as mentioned, Gestamp has met all the 2025 upgraded targets. In terms of revenues, we have been below the market growth with Gescrap also performing below 2024 due to the lower prices of the scrap. But in this environment, we have been able to increase our auto margin profitability by 78 basis points, generating a very sound free cash flow of EUR 228 million more than guided. and reducing our leverage ratio to 1.4x EBITDA, which is the lowest since the IPO. So basically, a quite solid year, reinforcing our fundamentals. So that means focusing in increasing profitability and increasing our balance sheet strength. With more focus on revenues, some revenues at FX constant have underperformed the market. In fact, the light vehicle manufacturing in our footprint has increased by 4.1% while at the same time, Gestamp sales at FX constant has been reduced by 1.2%. So that means a 5.2% underperformance, only 0.6% underperformance if we exclude in this analysis, the China impact. By regions, in Europe, the overperformance in East Europe has been cash compensated some slight underperformance in Western Europe. Basically, in North America, we are in line with the market. We had some underperforming in Mercosur due to some specific problems of some of our relevant customers in that area. And in Asia, we have a clear underperformance in China, but in the rest of the Asian countries, including India, we have more than a 15% overperformance. In our revenues in a reported basis, we are below 2024 figures by 5.4% from EUR 12 billion reported revenues in 2024, we have this year EUR 11.350 billion in 2025. There is a decrease, which is mainly coming from FX impact versus euro in most of the geographies, but also due to some lower activity and also to some lower scrap prices. If we go to the Slide #9, during 2025, Gestamp has entered into different agreements with certain customers impacting our profit and loss accounts, mainly in the fourth quarter 2025 and around EUR 34 million positive accounting impact at the EBITDA level with an asset write-down totaling EUR 52 million regarding these programs. So overall, these both items generating a net EUR 19 million negative impact at EBIT level. So these are effects, which are linked to the realignment strategies announced by several of our customers, largely driven by a slowdown in their EV rollout plan. And of course, these settlements fall within the framework of Gestamp's ongoing constructive negotiations with customers and always preserving our long-term relationship with them. So moving to Slide #10. So basically, 2025 has been another year of increasing profitability without growth. Our EBITDA margin for the auto business has increased from 11.1% in 2024 to 11.9% in 2025. Even without taking into consideration the extraordinary impact explained before, this increase has been to 11.6%. So again, a very solid recovery of profitability in our auto business activities. And we have been able to increase this profitability because we have a very clear focus in different actions like cost reduction initiatives, trying to introduce all kind of flexibility measures, of course, this constructive customers negotiations and with a clear focus in delivering on the Phoenix Plan. Moving to the Slide 11 about the Phoenix Plan. For the second year of the Phoenix Plan, we have been able clearly to match the target. And in this case, the target was to achieve more than 8% EBITDA margin. And we have done it in a market, which has been much weaker than expected when the Phoenix Plan was launched. At that time, we were forecasting a manufacturing level in North America of around 14.9 million units of light vehicles, but the real figures in 2025 have been EUR 14 million. So that means almost 6% decrease in terms of volumes, in terms of car manufacturing in North America. In this context, in the full year with sales of EUR 2,241 million, we have been able to generate EUR 182 million EBITDA. So that means 8.1%, which means a clear improvement comparing with the 7% EBITDA margin we had in 2024. And that we have been able also to do it with a very solid result in the fourth quarter with more than 11% EBITDA margin. So -- and we have been able to do it with extraordinary Phoenix cost below the plan with EUR 16 million in terms of profit and loss account and EUR 30 million in terms of CapEx cost. And in terms of Gescrap, we had a year which has been the performance of Gescrap has been clearly impacted by the scrap prices evolution. The scrap prices have been going down month after month in Europe with a total decrease of 12% in the scrap prices in Europe, more than 20% decrease in China and a little bit more stable in U.S. So that means that our revenues in terms of sales have been decreasing by 6.8%, even though in terms of tons, we have been able to preserve a very good level of activity. But this continued decrease of the price of the scrap has forced our company to reduce the profitability in terms of EBIT from EUR 42 million EBIT in 2024 to EUR 28.3 million. So -- but we are expecting for 2025 the scrap of the prices to be stabilizing and even growing. So that means that the profitability of the scrap for the future should be able to recover. Apart of that, we have also made an important acquisition. In this case, the company Industrias López Soriano. With this acquisition in scrap basically in the Iberian Peninsula, we have been able to get ourselves introduced in a different sector, the sector of the Shredding and also in the sector that now we are an active player in the recycling of waste of electrical and electronic equipment. Okay. So now with this, now I hand it over to Ignacio Mosquera.
Ignacio Vazquez: Thank you very much, Paco, and good evening to everyone. Moving to Slide #14. Let's have a closer look to our financial performance in 2025. We have reached revenues of EUR 11.349 billion, which entails a 5.4% decrease when compared to the EUR 12.01 billion from 2024. As we have seen before, revenue has been strongly impacted by ForEx in most of our geographies. In the auto business, at FX constant, revenues have declined by 1.2% year-on-year. In terms of EBITDA, we have generated EUR 1.307 billion in 2025, meaning an 11.5% margin and a 1% increase year-on-year. Excluding the Phoenix impact, EBITDA in absolute terms would amount to EUR 1.323 billion, therefore, an EBITDA margin of 11.7%. As a result of the one-off impacts mentioned before by Paco and higher amortizations, reported EBIT decreased by 6.2% year-on-year to EUR 546 million with an EBIT margin of 4.8% or 5% excluding Phoenix impact. Phoenix Plan aimed at restructuring our NAFTA operations, has had a EUR 16 million impact in P&L and a EUR 13 million impact in CapEx for the entire year. Net income in the year has been EUR 152 million that compares to the EUR 188 million reported in 2024, mainly due to an increase of depreciation and amortization levels and a higher interest expense due to increased exchange impacts in 2025. Net debt has closed the year at EUR 1.821 billion, therefore, a decrease of EUR 276 million on a reported basis. As for free cash flow, we have reached EUR 278 million in 2025, excluding the extraordinary impact of the Phoenix Plan or EUR 249 million as reported. To sum up, we continue to demonstrate our ability to perform strongly and strengthen our balance sheet in a challenging market environment together with a negative ForEx evolution. If we now move to Slide #15, we can see the performance by region on a year-on-year basis. Looking at each region in detail, revenues in Western Europe have decreased by 4.2% year-on-year in 2025 to around EUR 4 billion. Performance in the region has been strongly affected mainly by volume pressure in the period and to a lesser extent, the fall in raw material prices. In terms of EBITDA, it reached almost EUR 453 million, and EBITDA margin stood at 11.2% in the period, down from the 11.4% reported in 2024. Profitability in the period has been impacted mainly by volume drop with still limited operating leverage despite the flexibility measures, which have been taken. As we mentioned in our previous call, results of these measures will take some time with limited tangible results in the short term. In Eastern Europe, the performance in 2025 has been very solid, proving again our strong market positioning in the region. On a reported basis, during 2025, revenues have grown year-on-year by 1.2%, up to levels of EUR 1.925 billion, and EBITDA levels have increased by 15.4% to EUR 293 million. Eastern Europe region has been strongly impacted by ForEx this year. EBITDA margin of 15.2% is above the 13.3% reported last year. The reported -- the profitability improvement is mainly attributed to a better project mix, highlighting the strong project ramp-up in Turkey and the good evolution of the business in the remaining countries. In Europe, overall, considering both regions as a whole, we have managed to improve our profitability, partly due to the shift in the mix to Eastern Europe. In NAFTA, Phoenix Plan continues to show signs of improvement in the underlying operations with a very good EBITDA margin evolution in 2025 despite the underlying end market conditions and FX impact. Our revenues have decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, while EBITDA has increased by 7.8% if we exclude Phoenix impact of EUR 16 million in full year 2025. This higher EBITDA in absolute terms leads to an EBITDA margin of 8.1%, improving last year's profitability and also slightly surpassing the target we had set of 8% for 2025. As you all know, turning around the operations in NAFTA to improve our market positioning and profitability is at the top of our priorities, and these show results and the profitability achieved in Q4 sets the way to achieve the target of a 10% margin in 2026. In Mercosur, 2025 has been marked by the ForEx evolution in Brazil and Argentina, leading to lower revenues in the period decreasing by 15.7%. Despite the revenue decrease, EBITDA has increased by 4.9% year-on-year, leading to an 11.8% EBITDA margin versus 9.4% last year. We have been able to improve our profitability in 240 basis points, thanks to the flexibility measures and the turnaround of our business in Argentina, where last year, we did some restructuring. In Asia, reported revenues have decreased by 7.7% year-on-year in 2025 to EUR 1.823 billion within a complex and very competitive market environment. Our negative revenue evolution in the period is partially explained by the ForEx evolution in China. However, our performance continues to evolve very positively. Despite negative revenues evolution in the period, we have managed to maintain similar levels of profitability with an EBITDA margin of 14.5% for 2025, which places Asia as the second most profitable region for the group. Our approach continues to be focused on premium products in the region. We keep on working to gain positioning in this region, maintaining strong levels of profitability. Asian region remains a great opportunity for us, not only China, where we continue to develop these high value-added products, but also India, where we have undertaken new projects with a strong performance. Finally, Gescrap has seen revenues decreasing by 6.8% year-on-year to EUR 534 million as a result of the sustained decline in scrap prices, as mentioned before. As a consequence, EBITDA in absolute terms has decreased by 23.5% year-on-year, reaching EUR 39 million in the period. Overall, we have seen that our unique business model and geographic diversification has supported and driven our performance in a year marked by volumes volatility and lack of growth. Turning to Slide 16. We see that we ended 2024 with a net debt of EUR 1.821 billion, which is EUR 276 billion below the EUR 2.97 billion reported in December 2024. This EUR 276 million decrease includes dividend payments of EUR 111 million and cash in of EUR 220 million of minorities acquisitions, so M&A and equity contributions, mainly due to the transaction executed with Banco Santander earlier in the year. During the year, the company has generated a positive free cash flow of EUR 278 million, excluding extraordinary Phoenix costs, surpassing significantly the updated guidance for 2025, partly due to one-off compensations mentioned earlier by Paco, which came in, in Q4. Moving to Slide #17. We ended December 2024 with a net financial debt of EUR 1.821 billion, which implies a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.4x, driven by free cash flow generation as well as cash inflow from the partial real estate asset sale of EUR 246 million. This is the lowest debt level since the IPO of the company, both on net level and on leverage ratios and complying with our commitment to be between 1 to 1.5x net debt-to-EBITDA target. As we have mentioned, our priority is to preserve our financial strength, and we remain disciplined over leverage in absolute and relative terms. Looking at Slide #18, we are proud to share the actions carried out during 2025 and that have been key to provide a strong balance sheet. Firstly, and as a reminder, in September, we closed our partial real estate sale and leaseback agreement of our assets located in Spain, strengthening our balance sheet. Secondly, in October, we closed the new senior secured bonds issuance that contributed to extend our debt maturity structure at a very attractive cost. As a reminder, Gestamp's new EUR 500 million senior secured bonds represent the tightest price callable bond by an auto parts issuer since September 2021 with a coupon of 4%, 375%, which underpins the debt investor support to the group. Further to that, in January, we executed an amendment to our syndicated facility agreement and our revolving credit facility, extending the maturity from 2027 and 2028 to 2030 and 2031. These 2 transactions have allowed us to increase pro forma average debt life from 2.6 to 4.3 years. We continue actively managing our balance sheet structure to strengthen it and flexibilize our financial profile. Finally, on Slide #19, we present the return on capital employed. We have managed to reach 15.8% return on capital employed in 2025, improving by 80 bps between 2024 and 2025 and by 180 bps since 2022 when we first released our new return on capital employed KPI. As we have made clear, Gestamp aims at remaining disciplined on CapEx investments and improving profitability. Our long-term strategy is focused on generating value for our shareholders. Thank you all. And now I hand over the presentation to Paco for the outlook and closing remarks.
Francisco Jose Riberas de Mera: Thank you, Ignacio. So moving to the Slide 21. I would say that in terms of the market, nowadays, we are not expecting any growth for the market in 2026 versus 2025. And for the following years up to 2029 or 2030, we're assuming a limited growth of around 0.9% CAGR. In 2026, even though we are assuming a flat market, we are considering that the volumes in Europe will be stable with some decrease in Western Europe that could be more or less compensated by some increase in Eastern Europe. We see some increase in terms of volumes in areas like Mercosur and India. And probably we are now expecting a slight decrease for the first time in many years in China. In terms of the -- what we can expect for Gestamp in 2026, so basically very similar to what we have in 2025. So we see a market context in 2026, which means with a limited volume growth in our key geographies with, of course, still regulatory changes, especially in Europe, but also in NAFTA to happen with cost pressure expected coming from customers and also coming from the environment. And of course, some slower EV adoption, but probably with a little bit less volatility. So in this context, we will remain executing the same way we have done it in 2025, trying to base ourselves in kind of this execution of this solid backlog, trying also to focus ourselves in increasing profitability, even though we are not expecting any kind of volume increase. The idea is that we need to keep on improving the strength of our balance sheet and also increasing the flexibility of our balance sheet and of course, trying to focus in meeting the guidance for 2026. In terms of the backlog, at the end of 2025, we had EUR 47.5 billion backlog, which is covering more than 85% of the revenues expected by the group in the next 5 years. Solid backlog, but less backlog than we had 1 year ago because this has been impacted in terms of euros due to the negative ForEx and also it has been impacted by the rethinking of some of our customers of some of their EV programs. So basically, now what we have is a kind of a change in the backlog that we have because we have more content of programs, which are carryover with a less capital-intensive profile. And of course, we are using our CapEx in the future in a kind of conservative approach, trying to ensure the profitability and to be able to mitigate risk, but also to preserve some CapEx in order to be able to support the new customers and to support also footprint diversification with the new area. So again, I think, again, the message is the same. We are going to keep on in 2026 being very focused in working on profitability with a clear road map. The idea is to reinforce all kind of actions in order to have a very good control of all levels of cost, whether it's corporate division level or in the plant level trying to increase flexibility, trying to implement all kind of rightsizing of our operation whenever is required and trying to be more flexible and try to do our CapEx more in a steady basis. Of course, trying to be able to keep on moving with constructive negotiation with our customers and all the different regions and of course, also trying to be able to remain very focused in the third year of the Phoenix Plan, which is a very important milestone as I stated 2 years ago and which is going to provide our group to be able to get the profitability levels in NAFTA region equivalent to the rest of the group. In terms of the financial profile, and as Ignacio has already explained in the previous slide, by the end of 2025, we have been able to achieve a very, very solid financial profile, with a leverage of 1.4x net debt to EBITDA, which is the lowest since the IPO and mainly thanks to a very positive free cash flow generation during the last 6 years of more than EUR 1.4 billion. So taking all into account for 2026 in terms of the guidance, what's clear, the focus of the group is going to be to be another year of reinforcing our financial positioning. We are assuming a scenario in terms of market which is going to remain very flat. And in this environment of a flat market, we are guiding in terms of profitability, to be able to increase our EBITDA margin as a reported basis of more than 11.7% EBITDA margin in 2026. That means that we are guiding for an increase of the profitability in our auto market to be above 11.9% and in terms of Gescrap to increase also the profitability of more than 7.4% that we had in 2025. And in terms of our balance sheet, we are, again, looking for a less capital-intensive business profile. And what we are guiding is to have a good group operating cash flow conversion in the range of 35%. So that means that the operating cash flow defined as reported EBITDA minus the net cash CapEx. So again, clear focus in increasing profitability, a commitment to increase profitability in both auto business and Gescrap and improving our financial position by limiting our cash CapEx to the EBITDA that we are going to generate in this year. Moving to Slide 27. In the Phoenix Plan, the last year of the Phoenix Plan, the third year of the Phoenix Plan, we are expecting to complete the plant with a CapEx impact expectation of EUR 21 million and EUR 90 million impact in terms of profit and loss account, so a total of EUR 40 million. And in the total amount if we include the 3 years in the plan of EUR 100 million as guided 3 years ago or 2 years ago. And for 2026, we stress again our commitment to generate an EBITDA of more than 10% in 2026. And of course, a target that is right now very achievable in what we see and of course, a first stage in order to be able to increase the profitability of our North American operations to the level -- average levels of the rest of the group. So that's all with us. So message that full year 2025, we have been able to achieve very solid results in a difficult environment. For 2026, we are not expecting the market to recover, but we commit ourselves to increase our profitability and to increase also our financial profile. And of course, third year of the Phoenix plan, absolutely committed to be able to deliver. So that's all from my side and now open to your questions.
Operator: [Operator Instructions]. And our first question came from the line of Francisco Ruiz from BNP Paribas.
Francisco Ruiz: I have 3 questions, if I may. The first one is on your guidance for top line. I mean you commented that you do not expect any growth in this year, mainly also with deceleration in Asia. But mainly I still remember the old stamp when we talk about the -- I mean, the increase on growth above the market due to the increase of outsourcing. I mean, what is this driver? I mean it's already over. And on the other hand, I mean, could we think that the flat growth that the market expected and you are also assuming is because you are projecting nonprofitable projects that in the past you used to assume? The second question is a more modeling question. And if you could give us what's the split of the EUR 34 million extraordinaries in the different divisions -- and if this is something what we could expect also in the future or there are more contracts like this to be accounted in 2026 or '27? And last but not least is on the leverage. I mean, you are reaching a level, which is well below, I mean all-time low. What are you going to do with the cash, I mean, from here?
Francisco Jose Riberas de Mera: Okay. Thank you very much for your questions. In terms of the revenues, in terms of the top line, it's true that we are not giving a clear guidance for that. It's true also that the market has not been growing in the last years. And also, we have been reporting in Europe, we have been quite impacted by the FX. In fact, we have made the analysis. And if we were to have the revenues in the kind of currency levels that we had in 2022, we are losing more than EUR 1.5 billion just because of FX because we are reporting in euros. For this year, we don't see a growth. As mentioned, the market is not assuming any growth. And of course, we are always planning that we will do our best, but we consider that it is better for us now to assume that we need to focus in profitability and rather just to be waiting for volumes to come back. So we are doing our job. We are assuming that the bad news are going to be there, and we are putting a lot of stress in the operations. As you know well, because you know us for years, we have been growing for many years. We have a very good position in the market. We have this kind of position with the traditional customers and also with the new customers. And that's why I feel very comfortable that our positioning and our market share remains quite intact. In terms of the leverage that you mentioned, I think it is true that we have reached this 1.4x, which is below all the different levels. I think for us, right now, the focus is in the cash flow generation. I think it's very clear for us. And what to do in the future with that is something that is not now our first priority. Of course, as we have already commented, the market that will have some opportunities. There will be some consolidation. There will be opportunities to increase the remuneration to shareholders. But today, it's very early. Today, I think the clear focus for us is to really focus on profitability and focus and generate a very sound free cash flow. You had another question around the claims. I don't -- I prefer not to provide you with data around what kind of customers or programs or regions. But I think I am quite positive surprised that even though customers are suffering, the kind of negotiations that we are having with them are very positive and I think are fair, not easy, but are fair. And I think the kind of this impact at the end of the day is no more than a compensation of the different expenses that we had in these programs and now these programs are canceled and the customers are doing a clear recognition of what we have been doing for them because they also want to preserve our long-term relationship. So I would prefer not to give you much more details, but probably there will be more -- a little bit more in the -- during 2026.
Operator: [Operator Instructions]. And our next question comes from the line of Robert Jackson from Banco Santander.
Robert Jackson: First question is related to your comments, Francisco, on the footprint diversification. Could you elaborate more on this comment, give us a bit more detail what the thoughts are on this outlook? That was my first question.
Francisco Jose Riberas de Mera: Okay. So if I understand well around our footprint diversification, so that means that we are trying to, of course, to try to invest whenever the markets are growing. Even though, of course, we are trying to preserve our strength in terms of balance sheet. Probably in terms of the more clear bets in terms of growth is India. And India is a place that we are growing. We are investing. We are investing in opening new plants over there and also, which is something which was a kind of surprise to me, increasing in some specific high-tech technologies for that market. And we are growing a lot in areas like specific chassis solutions and also a lot in new hot forming lines. So India is a market that we see growth, and we are investing in that growth. Of course, in terms of growth, there could be other opportunities. There are other markets that we have a very good position like Brazil that we see still some room to grow, areas like, for instance, in Morocco that we are growing. But this is what we are expecting to do that. In terms of where we need to reduce in some extent our position, I think clearly, we are doing year after year some kind of downsizing of our operations in Western Europe.
Robert Jackson: Okay. Second question is related to the NAFTA improvements. We saw a significant improvement in the rise in the EBITDA margin from the third to the fourth quarter. Is there -- what are the main drivers behind these relevant increases? Or is it just a general improvement?
Ignacio Vazquez: Well, Robert, just to confirm, you're asking because we cannot hear you very well. You're asking about EBITDA margin drivers in fourth quarter?
Robert Jackson: Yes. Yes. EBITDA margin in NAFTA, more specifically the improvement in NAFTA, in NAFTA, yes. Why is the NAFTA EBITDA margin increased so significantly. Just to get a better understanding looking forward into the next few -- into 2026?
Francisco Jose Riberas de Mera: Yes. Well, I think, Robert, as you know, we usually have some kind of increase in the EBITDA margin in the fourth quarter compared with the -- that happened also in 2024. So it's in line with the trend that we have every year because we have -- and we have also this year some kind of agreements by the end of the year, for instance, when we are trying to be paid by the different agreements with customers around tooling and programs. So basically, it's a kind of trend that we have that we try to do this settlement and accounting of these agreements and negotiations with customers by the end of the year. So that's why basically we have this EBITDA margin in the fourth quarter more than the average EBITDA margin of the previous quarter, but this was very similar to the kind of evolution we had in 2024.
Robert Jackson: Okay. I was just wondering whether there was any specific changes on an operational level, but you've answered my question.
Operator: There are no further questions from the conference call at this time. So I will hand back to the management team. Thank you.
Ana Fuentes: Well, thank you for your time today. We hope the call has been useful. And as always, the IR team remains at your disposal for any further questions you may have. Wishing you all a very [ good evening ].
Francisco Jose Riberas de Mera: Okay. Thank you.
Ignacio Vazquez: Thank you very much.