5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $10.9B | $12.8B | $16.9B | $9.7B | $10.0B |
| EBIT | $7.1B | $8.4B | $11.0B | $6.3B | $6.5B |
| Tax | $952M | $1.1B | $1.5B | $853M | $878M |
| NOPAT | $6.1B | $7.2B | $9.5B | $5.5B | $5.7B |
| + Depreciation | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| - Capex | $67M | $79M | $104M | $60M | $61M |
| - Δ NWC | -$2.9B | $676M | $1.4B | -$2.5B | $100M |
| Free Cash Flow | $9.0B | $6.5B | $8.0B | $7.9B | $5.5B |
| Discount Factor | 0.909 | 0.827 | 0.752 | 0.684 | 0.622 |
| Present Value | $8.1B | $5.4B | $6.0B | $5.4B | $3.4B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 7.95% | $63.58 | $70.57 | $78.98 | $89.27 | $102.17 |
| 8.95% | $50.44 | $55.31 | $61.01 | $67.75 | $75.85 |
| 9.95% | $40.73 | $44.29 | $48.36 | $53.06 | $58.55 |
| 10.95% | $33.30 | $35.98 | $39.01 | $42.44 | $46.37 |
| 11.95% | $27.45 | $29.54 | $31.85 | $34.45 | $37.37 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth-43.56%
Year 2 Revenue Growth18.09%
Year 3 Revenue Growth31.61%
Year 4 Revenue Growth-42.36%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin65.17%
Tax Rate13.43%
Capex / Revenue0.61%
NWC / Revenue34.39%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.