LEN.DELEN.DEXETRA
Loading
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Lenzing AG Analyst Conference Call and Live Webcast. I am Matilda, the Chorus Call operator. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Rohit Aggarwal, CEO. Please go ahead.
Rohit Aggarwal: Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the presentation of Lenzing's results for the first 9 months 2025. With us today is also Nico Reiner, our CFO. Let's go through our agenda for today. I'll start with a summary of the key developments, followed by the market update as well as our refined strategy. Nico will then guide you through the financials, and I will talk about our investment highlights as well as the outlook. And as usual, at the end, we are looking forward to your questions in our Q&A session. Let's start with the overview of the key highlights for the first 3 quarters. The market continued to remain challenging, and it's even more important that we have refined our strategy with a clear focus on premiumization and excellence. Revenue and EBITDA continued to improve in the first 9 months, supported by a strong first quarter. However, market headwinds impacted us continuously in quarter 3. The market environment is marked by geopolitical uncertainty and especially the aggressive customs policy. EBITDA was additionally negatively impacted by restructuring one-offs. Operational excellence continues to be key for us, and we are further raising the bar on our agility and flexibility. Liquidity is one of our key priorities, and we made great progress. After this year's refinancing, our liquidity cushion reached a very solid level of EUR 1 billion. What remains unchanged are our core strengths, innovation and sustainability, where we were just confirmed as worldwide leader. This leads us to a confirmed EBITDA outlook by year-end. However, it needs to be said that visibility remains quite limited. International tariff measures have very much characterized the last couple of months globally. In Q1, markets were impacted only in a very limited way by tariff developments and Lenzing achieved a strong result. However, the escalation from reciprocal tariffs followed in early April. This has led to both supply and demand shocks impacting global value chains. Ongoing and repeatedly changing international tariff measures and the resulting uncertainty led to tangible stress along the textile value chain and impacting consumer confidence negatively. The direct impact for Lenzing is limited, however, leads to indirect effects on both demand and prices. On a more positive side, I can say that the nonwoven markets were less affected by these tariff developments. To mitigate the tariff impact, Lenzing took actions in 4 ways. Number one, we maintain very close contact to our customers and regional value chains to handle the situation in the best possible way and to strengthen demand visibility. Number two, we believe that we are better positioned than other fiber manufacturers given our global footprint, which allows us to shift fiber volumes between our production sites in order to manage cost and trade impact. Number three, we further strengthened our operational efficiency, which includes the target to reduce around 600 jobs in Austria, mainly in administration. Number four, we decided to start a review of strategic options, including a potential sale for the Indonesian production site, which supports our strategic focus on branded, high-performance fibers with higher margins. Let's look now in more detail how the markets have developed. The relevant markets for Lenzing are textiles, nonwovens on the fiber side as well as dissolved wood pulp. When adjusted for inflation, demand for apparel worldwide was up 2% in the first 9 months of 2025 versus a year ago. Consumer sentiment remains low, which is negatively impacting discretionary spending with elevated saving rate and a wait-and-see attitude. Growth driver was the U.S., which was driven by consumers pulling forward purchases in quarter 2 and quarter 3 in response to tariffs, while Europe and China were mostly flat in a challenging macro and cost of living environment. Let's turn our attention to nonwovens. Here, end markets show higher resiliency with a relatively stable consumer demand. Compared to previous years, the seasonality period with weaker demand lasted a bit longer into September. However, I can say that the development in October was promising given also a more positive sentiment towards 2026. The trend towards less plastics is ongoing, and the carbon footprint and other sustainability credentials are increasingly becoming a differentiator for nonwoven manufacturers and brands driven by consumer awareness and retail commitment, especially the U.S. and regulatory pressure in Europe. DWP demand is mostly driven by the production of regenerated cellulosic fibers. The production cuts we have seen in the viscose industry in quarter 2 were negatively impacting DWP demand and prices accordingly. As operating rates in viscose plants increased in quarter 3 and paper pulp prices stabilize, DWP prices saw some support, at least in U.S. dollar terms. Let's have now a look at the fiber prices on the Chinese market. Please keep in mind that prices shown on this slide are generic market prices. Generic viscose prices in China increased gradually in the third quarter in U.S. dollar terms. In July and August, demand improved and inventories fell as peak season was on the horizon. However, the pace of price increases remained cautious. At the end of September, the price of medium-grade generic viscose fiber stood just 2% higher compared to the end of second quarter at RMB 13,050 per ton. However, due to the weakened U.S. dollar, prices have decreased in euro terms, which is impacting Lenzing negatively. The situation on the cotton market did not change much in the third quarter, and international cotton prices fluctuated on a low level within the range. Dissolving pulp prices stopped falling in the third quarter with support from improved demand from viscose plants and some temporary supply constraints. In the third quarter, imported hardwood DWP prices went up by 2% to USD 818 per ton. Here again, prices in euro terms have decreased due to the weakened U.S. dollar. Lenzing prices are mainly traded at a premium compared to generic prices as the current share of specialties is at around 90%, and we are gradually withdrawing from the lower-margin commodity segments. Let us now turn to the development of costs. Energy and chemical costs remain significantly higher than historical levels, especially energy prices in Europe, but at least they decreased somewhat in quarter 3 compared to the second quarter. Geopolitical conflicts such as Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East continue to fuel the volatility of European gas prices. Lower demand due to warmer weather led to somewhat reduced gas prices in summer. Caustic soda prices remain high across regions, but reduced in general compared to Q2 due to weaker seasonal demand. Even with a slight improvement in the second quarter, both energy and chemical costs remain a major challenge for fiber production. As the relevant markets for us still show no signs of a sustainable recovery, it is even more important that we continue to keep our full focus on cost excellence, which remains a key pillar of our performance program. In 2024, we already realized over EUR 130 million in cost savings, and we do expect cost savings to further increase to annual cost savings of more than EUR 180 million for this year. We are clearly well on track to meet this target as well. To make it clear, we're talking about our recurring targets with an ongoing impact beyond this year as well. We can certainly be satisfied with our success so far, but there are still improvement areas ahead of us in order to maximize our full potential. As communicated about a month back, we are refining Lenzing strategy. Our refined strategy is built around 4 strategic priorities that together unlock value and prepare Lenzing for the future. Unlocking value happens in the first 2 pillars, premiumization and excellence. Premiumization means that we will concentrate more strongly on our branded and innovative fibers like TENCEL, VEOCEL and ECOVERO and gradually step back from less profitable commodity segments. By doing so, we improve margins and position Lenzing in areas where we can truly differentiate. The second is excellence. We are embedding a culture of efficiency and discipline across the group, not just through one-off savings, but by institutionalizing cost control, optimizing our footprint and streamlining structures. This makes us leaner, more agile and more resilient. We are implementing tough but necessary measures. By the end of 2025, around 300 positions will be reduced in Austria, mainly in overhead, supported by a social plan and with full assistance for those affected. This is expected to result in annual savings of over EUR 25 million from 2026 onwards. By 2027, another 300 positions will be reduced through internationalization as we strengthen our footprint in Asia and North America. Both measures will lead to total annual savings of more than EUR 45 million, latest fully effective before end of 2027. The third pillar is innovation. Now here, we will focus resources on fewer but higher impact projects, accelerating time to market and ensuring that our pipeline continues to provide the next generation of premium fibers, whether in textiles or nonwovens. And finally, sustainability. This has always been part of Lenzing's DNA, but going forward, it will be leveraged even more as a value driver. With growing regulation and customer demand for sustainable products, our leadership in this area is a true competitive advantage. Taken together, these 4 priorities, premiumization, excellence, innovation and sustainability ensure that we just don't react to changes in the market, but actively shape them, creating long-term value for customers, employees and shareholders. Innovation and sustainability remain the foundation of Lenzing's long-term strategy that they are what sets us apart from our competition. Even as we streamline, we will not compromise in these areas. On the innovation side, our pipeline continues to create real opportunities. One example is our new TENCEL HV100 fibers. The fiber features variable cut lengths designed to mirror the irregularities of natural fibers and brings undefined rawness of nature into TENCEL Lyocell portfolio for woven products such as denim. On the sustainability side, our leadership is recognized worldwide. We have just been reaffirmed our EcoVadis platinum status. And with this, Lenzing is now in the top 1% of companies in sustainability performance. We've also just been confirmed as a global leader in the Canopy sustainability ranking as we have taken once again first place in this year's Hot Button Report published by the Canadian nonprofit organization, Canopy. These achievements are not just certificates, they are an asset that strengthens our brand, enhances customer partnerships and increasingly drives premium pricing. And with this, I hand over now to Nico for an update on financials.
Nico Reiner: Thank you, Rohit, and a warm welcome from my side as well. The third quarter was negatively impacted by weakened fiber demand in continuously challenging markets with revenues decreasing by 3% year-on-year. EBITDA decreased by EUR 27 million to EUR 72 million. This was partially driven by the decrease in revenue just to mention. In addition, one-off restructuring costs for the headcount reduction program to mitigate market impact in the amount of EUR 13 million have also negatively impacted EBITDA. Additionally to that is to mention that we had the annual maintenance shutdown of LDC in the third quarter. Looking at the first 9 months in total, both our revenues and our margins increased, thanks to the measures that we have actively taken. Revenue increased by EUR 14 million in the first 9 months compared to the 9 months of 2024 and reached EUR 1.97 billion. EBITDA increased by EUR 77 million to EUR 340 million as the number of CO2 certificates held continued to increase, we decided to sell some of them in the amount of EUR 37 million in the first 9 months of this year, which positively impacted the EBITDA. Depreciation was at EUR 320 million, including an impairment of EUR 82 million, which I will talk about on the next slide. This led to an EBIT of EUR 21 million, which compares to EUR 38 million in the first 9 months of '24. Income taxes amounted to EUR 6 million compared to EUR 78 million in the first 9 months of '24, and the financial result was minus EUR 119 million compared to minus EUR 72 million in the first 9 months of '24. As a result, there was a loss of EUR 169 million for Lenzing shareholders, which compares to a loss of EUR 135 million in the first 3 quarters of 2024. Let's make it clear. Even though Q3 was negatively impacted by one-offs such as the restructuring costs, we are not satisfied with the result. However, on a positive note, we saw some stability in fiber demand in September compared to July and August. And October looks also more promising with a currently quite stable order book situation. Let's move to the next slide. As communicated, our refined strategy also addresses reviewing selected sites, including the Indonesian plant where potential sale is under consideration. In this context, noncash impairment losses on noncurrent assets, in particular, property, plant and equipment of EUR 82.1 million were carried out. The impairment losses have a negative impact on EBIT, but not effect on EBITDA. EBIT, excluding the impact of the impairment, would have been slightly negative at minus EUR 6 million, which compares to minus EUR 88 million reported EBIT. Please note that this impairment amount is not audited for Q3 closing and therefore, subject to change. Looking now at cash flow. Trading working capital further decreased and was down by 6% compared to the end of the second quarter due to lower inventory levels. With regards to CapEx, Lenzing continues to put a clear focus on maintenance and license to operate projects as part of its performance program and CapEx remained on low levels of EUR 32 million in Q3. As you can see, we continue to have a very disciplined approach to capital allocation. As a result, unlevered free cash flow more than doubled to EUR 103 million in Q3, and we clearly continue to have a very clear focus on free cash flow generation. Let's move to the balance sheet. On the left side of the slide, we show the development of net financial debt. Even though the markets were challenging in the third quarter, net financial debt continues to move into the right direction and came further down by EUR 35 million to about EUR 1.4 billion by the end of September. On the right side, you see the development of our liquidity cushion, it increased by EUR 23 million compared to the end of last quarter and reached a very solid level of EUR 993 million. Let us look at our debt maturities on the next slide. Let's have a short recap on the refinancing measures we have taken recently. In October last year, we have converted the project financing of our Brazilian joint venture of USD 1 billion into a stand-alone corporate finance structure with a further shift of debt maturities. The successful placement of the new hybrid bond in the amount of EUR 500 million in July this year followed the EUR 545 million syndicated loan secured in May. Those measures marked further milestones in the professional and forward-looking management of our capital structure. With this, we have proven to have access to capital markets despite challenging times, and we have essentially secured our financing through 2027. We can now continue to fully focus on executing our successful performance program aimed at improving margins and free cash flow as well as implementing the refi strategy. With this, I hand over back to you, Rohit.
Rohit Aggarwal: Thank you, Nico. Let me summarize now why Lenzing represents a compelling investment case today. First, we are recalibrating our asset base. That means moving away from a volume-driven model towards one that prioritizes economic value creation. We are reviewing underperforming assets, including the Indonesian side and focusing investment where returns are highest. Second, we are refocusing the organization. With leaner structures, institutionalized cost discipline and a stronger international footprint, particularly in North America and Asia, we are aligning resources with future growth opportunities. Third, we are resharpening our market focus. We are withdrawing from commoditized fibers and concentrating on premium branded products and resilient nonwoven applications. This makes our business less cyclical and more predictable. Finally, we are positioned to regain valuation. We combine a proven ability to execute, whether it's savings, refinancing, EBITDA growth with unique differentiation through innovation and sustainability. This is how we will restore investor competition and create long-term value. We now come to the outlook. I can clearly say that thanks to our performance program, the operational performance in the first 9 months 2025 was solid despite the still challenging market environment in the third quarter. In terms of fiber demand, I expect that we have already passed the low point with a positive development in September compared to July and August. As Nico also mentioned, we have seen continued promising developments in October and the order book situation looks currently quite stable. We assume relatively stable demand in pulp and have a cautious outlook on the generic fiber market development in the fourth quarter of 2025. We expect energy and raw material costs to remain on elevated levels. However, market visibility remains still on relatively low levels. While the market has not helped us so far, we continue to take the future in our own hands. We expect operational results to continue to be positively impacted by the performance program, and we keep the expectation for EBITDA for 2025 financial year to be higher than in the previous year. By 2027, we target approximately EUR 550 million EBITDA, assuming stable market conditions. With this, I will hand over back to the operator for Q&A.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Christian Faitz from Kepler Cheuvreux.
Christian Faitz: Two questions, please. First of all, your free cash flow continues to be on a nice good trajectory. Congrats on that. Would you be able to provide us a free cash flow guidance for the few months remaining in the year? And then second of all, can you tell us a bit about the capacity utilization? I note, obviously, your statements that things in terms of order income have improved, I guess, from September also into October. But where are your capacity utilizations at this point in time versus historical trends?
Rohit Aggarwal: Thank you, Christian. First question with regard to potential outlook on the fourth quarter for the free cash flow, Nico, please?
Nico Reiner: Yes. Thank you. So overall, as we have communicated now since, I think, meanwhile, 7 or 8 quarters, we are very much focused on generating free cash flow. And we are continuing this journey. So we overall will still work heavily to improve our free cash flow generation, and we are also clearly positive to have a positive further continuation of that story. But nevertheless, don't forget in the fourth quarter, there are always some one-timers, especially in regards to interest payments and so on. But overall, I think we will clearly continue the journey with a positive free cash flow for 2025.
Christian Faitz: The second question with regards to the utilization, capacity utilization, can you give us some indication there?
Rohit Aggarwal: Yes. Thanks, Christian, for that question. What I can say is the year has been a bit of a roller coaster given what we spoke about from a tariff leading to a lot of uncertainty in the value chain. So we've seen movements through the year, which were pretty strong starting quarter 1. We did see the books getting a bit slowdown in quarter 2, quarter 3, and then we are seeing now a recovery. At this point in time, I can say that we are running fairly back to normal capacity utilization. Of course, based on plants and products, it could vary slightly. But by and large, I would say we are recovering almost back to a full normalized state.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Patrick Steiner from ODDO BHF.
Patrick Steiner: Patrick Steiner speaking. Two questions from my side. Firstly, on your annual expected cost savings of EUR 45 million due to the personnel reduction of the roughly 600 jobs in Austria. You said it will take full effect by the end of 2027. What can we expect for 2026 and '27 in absolute terms? That's the first one. And the second one, in your Q3 report, you wrote that you expect that the passing of higher costs related to tariffs will lead to falling demand in the U.S. by next year at the latest. Could you please elaborate further on this and how this might hit you in terms of timing and so on? This would be nice.
Rohit Aggarwal: Thank you, Patrick. So the first question with regards to the [ wave ] or how does EUR 45 million personnel cost reduction savings will be reflected in 2026 and 2027. This one for you, Nico, please.
Nico Reiner: Yes, Patrick. So we do have our program here separated in 2 waves. So there is wave #1. Wave #1 would mean the first 300. And as already mentioned and commented during the presentation, there will be a EUR 25 million ticket jumping in 2026 and then as a continued improvement also going forward. And for the second phase of cosmos, here, we see further improvement starting already in 2027 and then fully being embedded in 2028. So in 2028, we see the additional EUR 20 million. So if you would sum it up EUR 25 million plus the EUR 20 million, that's the EUR 45 million ticket we have been talking. I think that gives a relatively clear picture.
Unknown Executive: Then the second question from Patrick is with regards to the expected falling demand that we expect in the U.S. in terms of overall apparel demand. Rohit, please.
Rohit Aggarwal: Yes. Sure, Patrick, thank you for that question. We've seen a bit of consumer behavior in Americas, which has been largely trying to circumvent or delay. And therefore, they have been doing -- putting forward their purchases in terms of apparel. So there have been a lot of pre-purchasing that has happened, and therefore, that we saw impact on the value chain kind of playing out through quarter 3. The prices are going to be looking to move up in the U.S. market. We expect that most of the retail would be affected. And we are continuously monitoring that very, very closely. Now if you look at and compare that to overall other supply chains outside textiles, we have seen that, by and large, those demands have stayed pretty flat in terms of -- and consumer behavior has not been impacted that significantly. But again, it's too early at this stage to make any prediction on how that will play out because it will be the scale of what level of price increases the retailers are able to put on the shelves and also how much of efficiency gains will happen in the supply chain through managing the cost mitigation around the tariffs. So -- but on our side, we are looking to continue to move our product into nonwovens and then we are able to find ways to offset our tariffs and then pass price increases where the contracts allow.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Rohit Aggarwal for any closing remarks.
Rohit Aggarwal: Well, thank you very much for joining us today, and we appreciate the questions. We hope to be able to see you again on March 19 when we will disclose our full year results for 2025. So look forward to interacting that time. Thank you very much for joining us again.
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.