10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $35.5B | $39.5B | $44.1B | $46.7B | $50.2B |
| EBIT | $8.1B | $9.1B | $10.1B | $9.4B | $8.8B |
| Tax | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.2B | $2.0B | $1.9B |
| NOPAT | $6.4B | $7.1B | $7.9B | $7.3B | $6.9B |
| + Depreciation | $4.2B | $4.7B | $5.2B | $5.6B | $6.0B |
| - Capex | $4.1B | $4.6B | $5.1B | $5.4B | $5.9B |
| - Δ NWC | $155M | $222M | $135M | $127M | $110M |
| Free Cash Flow | $6.3B | $6.9B | $7.9B | $7.3B | $6.9B |
| Discount Factor | 0.930 | 0.805 | 0.696 | 0.602 | 0.484 |
| Present Value | $5.9B | $5.6B | $5.5B | $4.4B | $3.3B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.25% | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% |
|---|
| 5.52% | $262.30 | $290.69 | $327.77 | $378.24 | $450.94 |
| 6.52% | $208.34 | $225.04 | $245.66 | $271.74 | $305.80 |
| 7.52% | $172.83 | $183.50 | $196.19 | $211.55 | $230.50 |
| 8.52% | $148.04 | $155.25 | $163.62 | $173.44 | $185.12 |
| 9.52% | $129.99 | $135.08 | $140.87 | $147.51 | $155.22 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Basic Materials Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth4.57%
Year 3 Revenue Growth5.95%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.15%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.79%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.25%
Terminal Growth Rate2.25%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin22.90%
Tax Rate21.80%
Capex / Revenue11.65%
NWC / Revenue10.00%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.