10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $35.6B | $39.5B | $44.1B | $46.7B | $50.2B |
| EBIT | $14.2B | $15.8B | $17.6B | $18.7B | $20.1B |
| Tax | $3.1B | $3.4B | $3.8B | $4.1B | $4.4B |
| NOPAT | $11.1B | $12.3B | $13.8B | $14.6B | $15.7B |
| + Depreciation | $4.2B | $4.7B | $5.2B | $5.6B | $6.0B |
| - Capex | $4.1B | $3.9B | $3.6B | $3.1B | $2.0B |
| - Δ NWC | $3M | $4M | $2M | $2M | $2M |
| Free Cash Flow | $11.2B | $13.1B | $15.4B | $17.1B | $19.7B |
| Discount Factor | 0.930 | 0.804 | 0.695 | 0.600 | 0.483 |
| Present Value | $10.4B | $10.5B | $10.7B | $10.3B | $9.5B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.25% | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% |
|---|
| 5.56% | $713.77 | $753.22 | $804.60 | $874.27 | $974.11 |
| 6.56% | $605.49 | $628.79 | $657.50 | $693.74 | $740.94 |
| 7.56% | $525.74 | $540.66 | $558.40 | $579.82 | $606.22 |
| 8.56% | $463.55 | $473.67 | $485.38 | $499.11 | $515.43 |
| 9.56% | $413.15 | $420.29 | $428.41 | $437.72 | $448.51 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Basic Materials Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth4.62%
Year 3 Revenue Growth5.86%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.15%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.79%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.25%
Terminal Growth Rate2.25%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin39.98%
Tax Rate21.80%
Historical Capex / Rev11.65%
Terminal Capex / Rev4.00%
NWC / Revenue0.18%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Basic Materials sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.