10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $130.1B | $133.3B | $170.3B | $184.9B | $199.8B |
| EBIT | $9.7B | $10.0B | $12.7B | $16.8B | $21.0B |
| Tax | $1.6B | $1.6B | $2.1B | $2.7B | $3.4B |
| NOPAT | $8.1B | $8.3B | $10.7B | $14.1B | $17.6B |
| + Depreciation | $2.6B | $2.7B | $3.4B | $3.7B | $4.0B |
| - Capex | $2.3B | $2.4B | $3.0B | $3.3B | $3.6B |
| - Δ NWC | -$112M | $7M | $377M | $313M | $177M |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.5B | $8.6B | $10.7B | $14.2B | $17.9B |
| Discount Factor | 0.943 | 0.837 | 0.744 | 0.661 | 0.553 |
| Present Value | $8.1B | $7.2B | $7.9B | $9.4B | $9.9B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 4.09% | $1,237.86 | $1,365.02 | $1,552.92 | $1,542.32 | $1,476.00 |
| 5.09% | $985.07 | $1,048.71 | $1,132.92 | $1,249.60 | $1,422.00 |
| 6.09% | $819.30 | $856.04 | $901.76 | $960.20 | $1,037.53 |
| 7.09% | $699.27 | $722.45 | $750.18 | $783.95 | $825.96 |
| 8.09% | $606.77 | $622.30 | $640.39 | $661.71 | $687.22 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Energy Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth-1.87%
Year 3 Revenue Growth0.12%
Year 5 Revenue Growth5.14%
Year 7 Revenue Growth3.88%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin7.48%
Terminal EBIT Margin12.00%
Tax Rate16.21%
Historical Capex / Rev1.78%
NWC / Revenue4.53%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Energy sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.