Moderna, Inc.MRNANASDAQ

Overview Intelligence Charts News Fundamentals Key Metrics Financials Growth Insiders

DCF Valuation

⚠️Model Warnings

•Terminal value represents 143% of enterprise value. Valuation highly sensitive to long-term assumptions.

DCF Valuation Summary

Hold

Fair Value: $50.16 per share(market-calibrated)

-6.9%

Upside to Fair Value

Current

$53.89

Pure Model

$48.91

Fair Value

$50.16

Bull Case

$92.72

Bear Case

$23.08

Market Reality Check

Model Terminal Growth

3.00%

Market-Implied Growth

5.61%

Calibrated Growth

3.39%

Fair value uses 85% model / 15% market-implied terminal growth. Pure model: $48.91.

What's Driving This Ratingfor MRNA

↓

CapEx normalizing toward maintenance

Historical CapEx is 27.10% of revenue (heavy investment phase). Model fades this to 3.50% by Year 10, freeing up ~$3.6B in annual FCF. This is the biggest driver of long-term cash flow improvement.

↑

Margin expansion modeled

Current EBIT margin is -26.43% — below the sector mature average of 20.00%. Model expands margins as the business scales and operating leverage kicks in. Year 10 EBIT reaches $731M (4.79% margin).

→

Moderate revenue growth

Analyst consensus projects 6.16% revenue growth, fading to 3.00% by Year 10. Revenue reaches $15.3B (vs $1.9B today).

↔

Perpetuity and exit methods disagree

Perpetuity growth gives $28.21/share (15.3x terminal FCF) while exit multiple gives $69.61/share (32.1x terminal FCF). The 24x EV/EBITDA exit reflects current market multiples, while the perpetuity method with 3.00% growth is more conservative. The base case averages both methods.

🎯

Market pricing in higher long-term growth

To justify $53.89, the market implies 5.61% perpetual growth — 261bps above the model's 3.00%. This suggests the market sees additional growth catalysts (AI, new products, market expansion) not captured in analyst estimates.

✓

Strong cash flow conversion

Year 10 FCF/EBITDA conversion of 74.86% indicates efficient cash generation. FCF reaches $2.4B by Year 10 (15.95% FCF margin).

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%

Beta (β)1.34

Market Risk Premium4.50%

*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)

Cost of Equity (Re)10.52%

Cost of Debt

Pre-tax Cost of Debt1.14%

Tax Rate21.00%

After-tax Cost of Debt0.90%

Equity Weight (E/V)91.63%

Debt Weight (D/V)8.37%

WACC Calculation

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))

WACC = (91.63% × 10.52%) + (8.37% × 0.90%)

= 9.72%

10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)

Year	Year 1	Year 3	Year 5	Year 7	Year 10
Revenue	$2.1B	$3.2B	$7.0B	$11.5B	$15.3B
EBIT	-$545M	-$833M	-$1.8B	-$1.1B	$731M
Tax	-$115M	-$175M	-$387M	-$234M	$153M
NOPAT	-$431M	-$658M	-$1.5B	-$879M	$577M
+ Depreciation	$341M	$520M	$1.2B	$1.9B	$2.5B
- Capex	$559M	$688M	$1.2B	$1.3B	$534M
- Δ NWC	$35M	$193M	$570M	$659M	$130M
Free Cash Flow	-$684M	-$1.0B	-$2.0B	-$948M	$2.4B
Discount Factor	0.911	0.757	0.629	0.523	0.396
Present Value	-$624M	-$771M	-$1.3B	-$496M	$963M

FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital

Terminal Value Calculation

Perpetuity Growth Method

Year 10 FCF$2.4B

Terminal Growth Rate3.00%

WACC9.72%

TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)

Terminal Value$37.3B

PV of Terminal Value$14.8B

Exit Multiple Method

Year 10 EBITDA$3.3B

Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)24.0x

TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple

Terminal Value$78.0B

PV of Terminal Value$30.9B

Valuation Summary

Perpetuity Growth Method

PV of Projected FCFs-$4.5B

PV of Terminal Value$14.8B

Enterprise Value$10.3B

(-) Net Debt-$679M

Equity Value$11.0B

Shares Outstanding389M

Price per Share$28.21

Exit Multiple Method

PV of Projected FCFs-$4.5B

PV of Terminal Value$30.9B

Enterprise Value$26.4B

(-) Net Debt-$679M

Equity Value$27.1B

Shares Outstanding389M

Price per Share$69.61

Pure Model Fair Value

$48.91

Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods (before market calibration)

Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share

WACC ↓ / Growth →	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%	4.00%
7.72%	$64.04	$66.73	$69.99	$74.02	$79.14
8.72%	$54.11	$55.87	$57.95	$60.42	$63.42
9.72%	$46.29	$47.51	$48.91	$50.54	$52.45
10.72%	$39.95	$40.82	$41.81	$42.93	$44.22
11.72%	$34.68	$35.33	$36.05	$36.85	$37.76

How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Scenario Analysis

Bear Case

$23.08

-57.2% vs current

• -25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 2.5%
• Beta: 1.67

Base Case

$48.91

-9.2% vs current

• Analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.0%
• Beta: 1.34

Bull Case

$92.72

72.1% vs current

• +25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.5%
• Beta: 1.14

Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Healthcare Sector

Growth Assumptions (Select Years)

Year 1 Revenue Growth6.16%

Year 3 Revenue Growth26.57%

Year 5 Revenue Growth38.97%

Year 7 Revenue Growth24.58%

Year 10 Revenue Growth3.00%

Terminal Growth Rate3.00%

Margin & Efficiency

Current EBIT Margin-26.43%

Terminal EBIT Margin20.00%

Tax Rate21.00%

Historical Capex / Rev27.10%

Terminal Capex / Rev3.50%

NWC / Revenue29.13%

Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.

Institutional-Grade Methodology

Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta

Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 24x EV/EBITDA (Healthcare sector)

This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Explore More

S&P 500 Screener

Filter and sort all 500 stocks

Market Movers

Today's biggest gainers and losers

Market Heatmap

Visual sector performance