MRNA
Next earnings: Jul 31, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Leaning Bullish1
Price
1
Move+0.74%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume1.2× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 59Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
52.88
Open
52.17
Day Range51.25 – 54.62
51.25
54.62
52W Range22.28 – 59.55
22.28
59.55
83% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
8.2M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
-6.5x
Not profitable
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.48
Market-like
Performance
1D
-2.70%
5D
+12.25%
1M
+3.77%
3M
+30.54%
6M
+100.23%
YTD
+79.32%
1Y
+105.76%
Best: 1Y (+105.76%)Worst: 1D (-2.70%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BEARISH
revenue -29% YoY · thin -14% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E not available
Health
MODERATE
CR 2.4 · FCF negative
Lean Bearish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$21.14B
Revenue TTM$2.23B
Net Income TTM-$3.19B
Free Cash Flow-$1.58B
Gross Margin-13.9%
Net Margin-143.6%
Operating Margin-153.3%
Return on Equity-36.7%
Return on Assets-27.8%
Debt / Equity0.18
Current Ratio2.41
EPS TTM$-8.09
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

COVID-19 vaccine demand forecasts and CDC/ACIP recommendations for annual boosters

Clinical trial readouts for pipeline programs (individualized neoantigen therapy INT, CMV vaccine mRNA-1647, cancer vaccines)

RSV vaccine (mRESVIA) commercial uptake and market share vs GSK/Pfizer competitors

FDA approvals and regulatory milestones for 10+ late-stage programs

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

low - Vaccine demand driven by epidemiology and public health policy rather than GDP. However, discretionary vaccine uptake (non-mandated boosters) shows modest correlation to consumer confidence. Government budget constraints during recessions could impact pandemic preparedness funding and advance purchase agreements. Commercial insurance reimbursement stable regardless of cycle.

Interest Rates

High sensitivity through valuation multiple compression rather than operations. As unprofitable growth biotech with $9.5B cash and minimal debt (0.15 D/E), rising rates increase discount rate applied to out-year pipeline value (2028-2030+ revenue potential). 10-year Treasury moves directly impact biotech sector multiples. Operationally, interest income on cash balances provides modest offset ($300-400M annually at current rates). No meaningful financing cost exposure given strong balance sheet.

Key Risks

COVID-19 endemic transition reducing vaccine demand from $18B peak to $2-3B steady-state market with 3-4 competitors

mRNA platform unproven in non-infectious disease indications (oncology, rare disease) where 40+ programs remain pre-commercial

Regulatory pathway uncertainty for personalized cancer vaccines and combination products requiring novel approval frameworks

Investor Profile

growth/speculative - Attracts biotech specialists betting on platform value and pipeline optionality despite current unprofitability. High-risk/high-reward profile with binary clinical trial outcomes. Momentum traders active given 69% 3-month return on pipeline optimism. Value investors largely absent given negative earnings and 8.5x P/S on declining revenue base. Not suitable for income investors (no dividend, cash burn).

Watch on Earnings
COVID-19 vaccine doses sold per quarter and average selling price trendsCDC ACIP recommendations for annual COVID boosters and eligible population expansionRSV vaccine (mRESVIA) weekly prescription data (Symphony Health, IQVIA) vs GSK ArexvyClinical trial milestone announcements for INT (individualized neoantigen therapy) in melanoma/NSCLC
Health Radar
3 strong3 concern
41/100
Liquidity
2.41Strong
Leverage
0.18Strong
Coverage
-189.6xConcern
ROE
-36.7%Concern
ROIC
-37.3%Concern
Cash
$2.6BStrong
ANALYST COVERAGE25 analysts
HOLD
-29.6%downside to target
L $17.00
Med $37.50consensus
H $63.00
Buy
728%
Hold
1456%
Sell
416%
7 Buy (28%)14 Hold (56%)4 Sell (16%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
8/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 59 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowNeutral
~
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 2.41 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 13, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 7, 2026
In 87 days
PDividend PaymentAug 14, 2026
In 94 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 42.2%

+3.1% vs SMA 50 · +46.6% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI59.1
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+0.30
Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$59.55+11.8%
Current
$53.27
EMA 50
$50.02-6.1%
EMA 200
$38.95-26.9%
52W Low
$22.28-58.2%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week high
$22.2883th %ile$59.55
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
No Clear Setup

Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:2
Dist days:3
Edge:+1 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)7.4M
Recent Vol (5D)
9.2M+24%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 16 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↑ Revised UpRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$1.9B
$1.9B$1.9B
-$7.84
±7%
High15
FY2026(current)
$2.1B
$2.0B$2.1B
+9.3%-$8.51
±20%
High15
FY2027
$2.5B
$1.9B$4.4B
+19.8%-$4.73
±50%
High16
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
🔥Beat 8 consecutive quarters
Earnings HistoryMRNA
Last 8Q
+37.7%avg beat
Beat 8 of 8 quarters Estimates rising
+1%
Q3'24
+102%
Q4'24
+7%
Q1'25
+14%
Q2'25
+29%
Q3'25
+73%
Q4'25
+17%
Q1'26
+61%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
Neutral — mixed activity
30d11
90d11
Wells FargoEqual-Weight → Outperform
May 8
UPGRADE
William BlairMarket Perform → Underperform
May 8
DOWNGRADE
BMO CapitalMarket Perform → Buy
Jan 12
UPGRADE
UBSBuy → Neutral
Jan 6
DOWNGRADE
Evercore ISIReduce
Dec 11
DOWNGRADE
HSBCHold → Buy
Dec 10
UPGRADE
OppenheimerOutperform → Perform
Sep 13
DOWNGRADE
JefferiesBuy → Hold
Sep 12
DOWNGRADE
HSBCReduce → Hold
Aug 28
UPGRADE
Deutsche BankSell → Hold
Aug 6
UPGRADE
RBC CapitalUnderperform → Sector Perform
Aug 5
DOWNGRADE
HSBCHold → Reduce
Feb 26
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/5 SellsNet Selling
NET SELLERS$0 bought · $265K sold · 30d window
Hussain AbbasDir
$265K
May 1
SELL
Klinger Shannon Thy…Chief Legal Of…
$726K
Mar 2
SELL
Hoge StephenPresident
$7.8M
Feb 23
SELL
Afeyan NoubarDir
$703K
Dec 11
SELL
Hussain AbbasDir
$14K
Dec 9
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

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2.0M
6
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1.7M
7
Douglas Lane & Associates, LLC
1.3M
8
Nuveen, LLC
1.1M
News & Activity

MRNA News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

moderna is pioneering messenger rna therapeutics™, an entirely new in vivo drug modality that produces human proteins or antibodies inside patient cells, which are in turn active intracellularly or secreted. this breakthrough platform addresses currently undruggable targets, and offers a superior alternative to existing drug modalities for a wide range of disease conditions. moderna has developed a broad intellectual property estate including more than 200 patent applications with more than 10,000 claims ranging from novel nucleotide chemistries to specific drug compositions. the company plans to develop and commercialize its innovative mrna drugs—initially for rare diseases and oncology—while partnering drug candidates in other therapeutics areas in order to rapidly deliver this innovation to patients. based in cambridge, massachusetts, moderna is privately held and was founded in 2010 by flagship venturelabs in association with leading scientists from boston children’s hospital a

Industry
Research and Development in Biotechnology (except Nanobiotechnology)
CEO
Stephane Bancel
Charbel HaberSenior Vice President & Head of Global Regulatory Science
John LeporeSenior Vice President of Government Engagement
Stephen HogePresident
PeersHealthcare(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
MRNA
$53.27-2.70%$21.0B-3923.1%-14516.5%1527
$989.87+1.96%$910.7B34.2+4470.5%3166.4%1501
$224.26+0.05%$533.0B25.7+604.8%2845.6%1514
$207.94-0.57%$358.7B98.8+856.7%691.0%1493
$396.39+1.17%$349.1B29.0+1181.4%269.4%1527
$112.37-0.82%$274.9B30.8+118.1%2811.5%1517
$336.29-0.64%$177.9B22.8+992.4%2098.7%1502
Sector avg-0.22%40.2+614.4%-376.3%1512