10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $4.3B | $4.7B | $4.9B | $5.2B | $5.5B |
| EBIT | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B |
| Tax | $151M | $164M | $173M | $181M | $194M |
| NOPAT | $916M | $993M | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| + Depreciation | $98M | $106M | $112M | $117M | $125M |
| - Capex | $75M | $82M | $86M | $90M | $97M |
| - Δ NWC | $15M | $18M | $12M | $13M | $14M |
| Free Cash Flow | $923M | $999M | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| Discount Factor | 0.914 | 0.764 | 0.638 | 0.533 | 0.407 |
| Present Value | $844M | $762M | $679M | $593M | $484M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.25% | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% |
|---|
| 7.41% | $104.03 | $106.76 | $110.02 | $113.99 | $118.90 |
| 8.41% | $92.14 | $93.98 | $96.12 | $98.63 | $101.64 |
| 9.41% | $82.47 | $83.77 | $85.24 | $86.93 | $88.90 |
| 10.41% | $74.39 | $75.32 | $76.38 | $77.57 | $78.92 |
| 11.41% | $67.48 | $68.18 | $68.96 | $69.82 | $70.79 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Industrials Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth3.20%
Year 3 Revenue Growth3.64%
Year 5 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.25%
Terminal Growth Rate2.25%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin24.75%
Tax Rate14.14%
Historical Capex / Rev1.75%
NWC / Revenue11.22%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (Industrials sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.