10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $133.7B | $145.3B | $186.1B | $207.3B | $226.6B |
| EBIT | $6.8B | $7.4B | $9.5B | $15.7B | $22.1B |
| Tax | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.6B | $2.6B | $3.6B |
| NOPAT | $5.7B | $6.2B | $7.9B | $13.1B | $18.4B |
| + Depreciation | $2.2B | $2.4B | $3.1B | $3.4B | $3.7B |
| - Capex | $2.1B | $2.3B | $3.0B | $3.3B | $3.6B |
| - Δ NWC | $20M | $130M | $187M | $151M | $68M |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.7B | $6.1B | $7.8B | $13.1B | $18.5B |
| Discount Factor | 0.934 | 0.816 | 0.712 | 0.622 | 0.507 |
| Present Value | $5.4B | $5.0B | $5.6B | $8.1B | $9.4B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 5.03% | $760.43 | $812.04 | $880.72 | $976.60 | $1,119.81 |
| 6.03% | $629.71 | $659.28 | $696.21 | $743.60 | $806.66 |
| 7.03% | $535.89 | $554.46 | $576.72 | $603.89 | $637.83 |
| 8.03% | $464.09 | $476.49 | $490.95 | $508.03 | $528.50 |
| 9.03% | $406.74 | $415.40 | $425.30 | $436.71 | $450.02 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers✓ Using Analyst Consensus Estimates• Energy Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth0.98%
Year 3 Revenue Growth6.25%
Year 5 Revenue Growth7.05%
Year 7 Revenue Growth5.03%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin5.09%
Terminal EBIT Margin12.00%
Tax Rate16.46%
Historical Capex / Rev1.60%
NWC / Revenue1.52%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Energy sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.