10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $24.6B | $27.0B | $28.9B | $30.2B | $32.3B |
| EBIT | $5.1B | $5.6B | $6.0B | $6.3B | $6.7B |
| Tax | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B |
| NOPAT | $3.9B | $4.3B | $4.6B | $4.8B | $5.2B |
| + Depreciation | $641M | $706M | $755M | $790M | $844M |
| - Capex | $786M | $865M | $926M | $968M | $1.0B |
| - Δ NWC | $30M | $41M | $19M | $20M | $21M |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.8B | $4.1B | $4.4B | $4.6B | $5.0B |
| Discount Factor | 0.917 | 0.772 | 0.650 | 0.547 | 0.422 |
| Present Value | $3.4B | $3.2B | $2.9B | $2.5B | $2.1B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.25% | 1.75% | 2.25% | 2.75% | 3.25% |
|---|
| 7.01% | $265.19 | $274.21 | $285.13 | $298.60 | $315.66 |
| 8.01% | $229.58 | $235.53 | $242.50 | $250.80 | $260.83 |
| 9.01% | $201.07 | $205.18 | $209.89 | $215.36 | $221.78 |
| 10.01% | $177.49 | $180.43 | $183.76 | $187.54 | $191.89 |
| 11.01% | $157.53 | $159.71 | $162.13 | $164.85 | $167.91 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Basic Materials Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth4.20%
Year 3 Revenue Growth5.22%
Year 5 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 7 Revenue Growth2.25%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.25%
Terminal Growth Rate2.25%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin20.81%
Tax Rate23.06%
Historical Capex / Rev3.20%
NWC / Revenue3.02%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Basic Materials sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.