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Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Sika 9 Months 2025 Results Conference Call and Live Webcast. I am Mathilde, the Chorus Call operator. [Operator Instructions] The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Dominik Slappnig, Head of Communications and Investor Relations of Sika. Please go ahead.
Dominik Slappnig: Thank you, Mathilde, and good afternoon, everyone, and a warm welcome to our 9 months results conference call. Present on the call today is Thomas Hasler, our CEO; Adrian Widmer, our CFO; Christine Kukan, Head of IR; and Jomi Lemmermann, IR Manager. We are excited to share with you the highlights and key messages for the 9 months. Earlier today, we published our results and made the investor presentation available on our website. With this, Thomas Hasler and Adrian Widmer will provide further details on the results and the outlook. Afterwards, we will be ready to take your questions. I hand now over to Thomas to start with the highlights of the 9 months.
Thomas Hasler: Thank you, Dominik. And also from my side, a warm welcome to this afternoon call. And let me quickly summarize the publications of today and some highlights underlying that we would like to share with you this afternoon. Sika has delivered a resilient performance in the first 9 months in a market that has -- remains to be dominated by uncertainty of various kinds. We have been able to increase our sales by 1.1% in local currency despite a heavy impact from our China construction business with a double-digit decline. Also this year, we are facing an unprecedented foreign currency impact. It's almost 5% and primarily due to the weaker U.S. dollar. But let me summarize a little bit our regions. And here, starting with EMEA. EMEA has seen for the whole year so far, a very nice double-digit growth in the area, Africa and Middle East. This is in line with the trend we have seen from last year, and it's strong also to continue. At the Eastern Europe business, we see green sprouts of growth. Eastern Europe is moving back to growth. It's mainly coming from the residential, so from the retail side, but it is clear this has picked up in pace and will also support the future evolution in EMEA. The region overall has reached 1.5% organic growth in the first 9 months. Americas on the other side, offers huge opportunities in the U.S. Here, we are collecting everyday data center opportunities that are unprecedented and growing and are not impacted at all by the uncertainties that are influencing other segments. The data center business has become a cornerstone of our direct business in the U.S. Just similar to our infrastructure business, which is doing very well in the U.S. Also here, we see more and more the impact of the Infrastructure Act that is delivering us opportunities from the East to the West Coast. We also see that the U.S. currently has some uncertainty that holds back on the reshoring. But here, plenty of these projects are ready to start, and we are also expecting that soon there will be more clarity and then production or construction start -- can start soon. We also see in the mature market of North America, a huge backlog in refurbishment, which is an opportunity to come soon as this backlog cannot pushed out very long. When I come to Asia Pacific, this is the region which has been most challenged, mainly influenced by the decline in our China construction business. If you would take the China construction business out of the equation, actually, the region, Asia Pacific would have been the region with the highest growth -- organic growth of around 4% in local currency. This comes from Southeast Asia and India with high single-digit growth. But as I mentioned, the China business is challenged and also we have taken here decisive measure to take here the margin and profit orientation above the volume orientation. But let me now move further into the P&L. And here, I would see the material margin increased to 55%, a significant demonstration of the synergies that we have been able to further increase from the MBCC and other acquisitions, efficiencies in our operations, and also a good cost management on the input cost side. This has also then trickles down to the EBITDA margin, which has rise by 10 basis points to 19.2% compared to prior year. Also here, the bottom line impact by the FX is quite significant. It is almost CHF 100 million when we look at the EBITDA alone. As mentioned before, we are taking decisive actions. This is in line with our manage for results key principle. We introduced our Fast Forward investment and efficiency program today, which builds on our leadership position. It will enhance customer value. It will improve operational excellence through digital acceleration and therefore, drive growth and profitability in the future. This program is built on a few blocks like investments CHF 100 million to CHF 150 million in the coming years. It is also coming with a shorter-term oriented structural adjustments in markets where we see ongoing weak momentum. Here, the China construction most pronounced, where we are making adjustments, which come with one-off costs of roughly CHF 80 million to CHF 100 million in '25 and the workforce reduction of up to 1,500 employees. The program overall will drive annual savings of CHF 150 million to CHF 200 million per annum with the full impact to come then implemented in the year of 2028. But now I hand over to Adrian to provide us more details and flavors to the financial 9 months performance.
Adrian Widmer: Thank you very much, Thomas, and good afternoon, good morning to everybody attending. After Thomas' highlights, I would like to now put additional insights here to the financial results. In a market environment that remains challenging, as we have heard, we have achieved a modest sales growth in local currency of 1.1% in the first 9 months of the year, driven by acquisitions, while organic growth was flat year-to-date, owing to a minus 1.1% decline in Q3, driven by China. Without China, organic growth year-to-date in local currency was 1.7% or close to 3%, including acquisitions overall. Acquisition growth primarily came from the initial contribution of the 5 transactions we have consummated this year, including some residual impact of last year's bolt-ons, overall adding 1.1% of additional growth in the first 9 months of 2025. Sales were clearly adversely impacted by foreign exchange effects, especially as mentioned, related to a weak U.S. dollar, but also the RMB and the general strengthening of the Swiss franc. Overall, adverse foreign exchange effects reduced local currency growth by 4.9 percentage points in the period under review with a Q3 impact of minus 5.9%, slightly improved from a more significant impact in Q2, but still above the overall run rate. Corresponding growth, therefore, in Swiss francs was minus 3.8% for the first 9 months. Looking at the regions, region EMEA showed a similar Q3 trajectory as in the first half year, growing 2.1% overall, 1.5% organic and 0.6% through acquisitions. As Thomas has highlighted, business performance was particularly strong in the Middle East and Africa, where we recorded double-digit growth, but also with a good momentum in Eastern Europe. Here, foreign exchange effects at minus 3.3% year-to-date remained unchanged in Q3. Sales in the Americas region increased by 2.9% in local currencies, while Q3 growth was in line with Q2. Overall, year-to-date organic growth was 0.8%, while acquisitions continued to add 2.1% of growth in the period under review. While the business year got off a good start, U.S. trade policy measures triggered the mentioned uncertainty in the markets and slowed down momentum. While this caused Sika's growth in the U.S. and Mexico to soften, performance remained solid in Latin America overall, but also in the U.S., as highlighted by Thomas, some strong momentum in several areas. Here, adverse foreign exchange effects were most profound and reduced local currency growth by minus 7% in the region in the first 9 months, driven by particularly here the strengthening Swiss francs against the U.S. dollar of more than 10% starting in Q2, but also the devaluation of the Argentinian peso. Sales in Asia Pacific declined by minus 3.9%, while organic growth was minus 4.3% for the period. This result is mainly attributable to the challenging deflationary market environment in the Chinese construction sector for which we are focusing here on protecting our margins and driving efficiency. If we exclude here the impact, sales in the region would have been around 4% in local currencies. And also here, most -- or the strongest market was in India and Southeast Asia and also in Automotive & Industry, where Sika continued to expand its share in its technologies in both the local as well as international manufacturers. Also here, an M&A impact, namely the acquisition of Elmich contributing here 40 basis points of growth, an adverse foreign exchange impact at minus 4.6% reduced here local currency growth to minus 8.5% in Swiss francs in the first 9 months. Now turning to the full P&L and looking at material margin. Here, we have, as highlighted, driven up gross result by 30 basis points year-on-year due to also a very strong Q3 expansion, 55% of net sales in the first 9 months. This is also in spite of the deflationary environment in China and a small dilution of 10 basis points coming from M&A, but also overall material cost in recent months, also driven by our procurement initiatives showed a slightly declining trend. Reported operating cost this year, including personnel costs as well as other operating expenses, decreased slightly under proportionally in the first 9 months of the year versus the same period of 2024. Here, continued strong MBCC-related synergy trajectory as well as efficiency measures were offset by ongoing yet reducing cost inflation, currency impacts as well as initial onetime cost of around CHF 18 million in Q3 related to our structural cost reduction program. In looking at personnel costs specifically, which were down by minus 0.3% year-on-year on a reported basis, we have seen continued underlying wage inflation at around 3.5% per annum on a like-for-like basis. This is partially and increasingly being offset by cost synergies as well as operational and structural efficiency initiatives, but negatively affected by this initial fast forward severance expenses. Other operating expenses decreased strongly over proportionally by minus 6.5%, driven by accelerated efficiency measures and MBCC synergies. Overall, the integration of MBCC is largely concluded, while strong delivery of synergies is ongoing. Realized total synergies amounted to CHF 130 million in the first 9 months of '25 an incremental CHF 41 million versus the same period of last year, representing an annual run rate of CHF 166 million and therefore, well on track to push towards the upper range of the increased guidance of CHF 160 million to CHF 180 million for this year. Overall, EBITDA margin, as highlighted, increased by 10 basis points to 19.2%, up from 19.1% in the first 9 months. Absolute EBITDA decreased under proportionally by minus 3.3% from CHF 1.702 billion to CHF 1.645 billion due to foreign exchange translation effects, broadly in line with the effect on the top line also here highlighting our strong natural hedge and decentralized cost base in line with invoicing currency. Depreciation and amortization expenses were virtually flat in absolute terms at CHF 407 million or 4.8% of net sales as favorable translation effects were offset by PPA effects on the intangible side as well as a slightly higher depreciation rate. As a result, EBIT ratio decreased by 10 basis points to 14.4%, while absolute EBIT also was impacted by currency translation effects. If we turn below the EBIT, here, net interest expenses decreased and continued to increase significantly by CHF 16 million to CHF 105.5 million in the first 9 months. This compared to CHF 121.6 million in the same period of last year. Decrease is largely related to the scheduled repayment of our first Eurobond in Q4 '24 that was taken out for the financing of MBCC. And in addition, other financial expenses also showed a favorable development, representing a net income of CHF 10.2 million, up roughly CHF 7 million compared to the same period of last year, unfavorable hedging cost development, lower inflation accounting effects and also higher income from associated companies. On the tax side, group tax rate increased from 21.5% to 23.8% in the first 9 months. This is largely related to a positive onetime effect in the previous year. This is primarily the deferred tax benefit relating to a foreseen legal restructuring. And this year, we had also higher withholding tax on internal dividends distributed in the second quarter this year. As a result, net profit ratio was modestly down to 10.1% of sales. This is 20 basis points lower than last year. And also here, absolute net profit of CHF 870.9 million was impacted by currency translation effects. On the cash flow side, operating free cash flow in the first 9 months was CHF 630 million, which continues to be about CHF 220 million lower than cash flow in the same period of last year. However, cash generation in Q3 was strong and in line with last year. And the reduction here is primarily due to unfavorable currency movements compared to last year, particularly impacting here hedging of intercompany financing, but also partially due to a modestly higher seasonal increase in working capital slightly higher CapEx as well as higher cash taxes. For the full year, we expect to partially close the gap in Q4 and full year operating free cash flow in line with our strategic targets of higher than 10% of net sales, additionally supported by group-wide working capital initiatives. With this, I conclude my remarks on the 9-month financials and hand back to Thomas for the outlook.
Thomas Hasler: Good. Thank you, Adrian. Yes, let me be short and brief on the outlook. We have published our outlook, and we confirm for '25, our expectation of modest increase in net sales in local currency for 2025. And our EBITDA margin of approximately 19%, including the one-off costs from the Fast Forward program, which I referred to earlier. The medium-term guidance, we confirm our profitability and cash flow expectation with reaching the band of 20% to 23% EBITDA in 2026. And we have created here a new guidance based on the revised growth assumptions for the market of 3% to 6% local currency net sales growth for the period of '26 to '28.
Dominik Slappnig: We are -- with this, basically, we are now opening the line for your questions, please.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Ben Rada Martin from Goldman Sachs.
Benjamin Rada Martin: I have three questions, please. My first was on, I guess, the annual savings you've introduced today, the kind of $150 million to $200 million amount. Could you maybe break down the source of these between the two programs being the efficiency program and investment program? The second would just be on pricing growth. I assume you're starting to have some conversations around 2026 pricing. Could you maybe just give us a steer on what kind of level of pricing growth you expect at the group level? And then finally, on China construction, thank you for the disclosure today around that business. I'd be interested for our kind of housekeeping side, what share of the China business would be in construction at the moment? And what would be the split between, I guess, the channel side and the project side within China construction?
Adrian Widmer: Yes. Thank you, Ben, here for the question. I'll start with the first one. We will provide more granularity here on, let's say, sort of the breakdown and the content of the impacts here then in November. But maybe at this stage, we expect about CHF 80 million out of the CHF 150 million to CHF 200 million to hit the P&L in a positive way in 2026. On maybe the pricing, and I'll take this one here, too, we had about 0.6% price increase year-to-date here, excluding China. China in a negative environment with negative pricing, but about 60 basis points for the first 9 months, which we're expecting to sort of roughly stay at that level for the full year basis.
Thomas Hasler: Good. And to the third question in regards to our China business, our China construction business is about 70% of our China business. The remaining 30% is related to the automotive industrial manufacturing business, a business that is growing nicely in line also, let's say, with the transformation to e-mobility and the increased volumes overall. The 70% of the construction-related business, the larger portion, also roughly about 70%, 75% is the indirect business. It's the business that is related to the tile setting business in the residential area. And then the 25% direct business is especially strong with sensitive infrastructure programs and with the foreign direct investments of multinationals building in China. As we all know, the residential business in China has some challenges with huge inventories still being around and the foreign direct investment business has declined this year substantially, roughly 25%. These are the two drivers for the very soft business that we are facing and also then mandating that we take here decisive steps to structurally adjust to this condition as we don't see that quickly to resolve in the near future.
Operator: The next question comes from the line of Priyal Woolf from Jefferies.
Priyal Mulji: I just got two actually. So the first one is just on the rebasing of the midterm local currency sales growth. Would you mind just reminding us what the contribution was from market growth back when the target was 6% to 9%? Was it around 2.5%? And I'm just asking that in the context that you've obviously cut the midterm target by 3%. Are you effectively now implying that market growth will be flat or possibly even down for the next couple of years? Or is there something else sort of buried in the target cut today in terms of lower outperformance or lower pricing or lower M&A. And then the second question is just on the CHF 120 million to CHF 150 million investments that you're talking about. Is that CapEx? Or is there some sort of P&L cost involved with that?
Thomas Hasler: Okay. Thank you, Priyal. I'll take the first one. And here, you are absolutely correct. Our former guidance was built on a 2.5% market expansion. And our current or our adjustment is basically correcting for the current, but also for the foreseeable future and here is more neutral or slightly negative. The elements of the strategy, the market penetration and the acquisition are from our side, unchanged, but the market has changed substantially longer than anybody could have anticipated. And therefore, we made this readjustment, but it's mainly -- or it is the market that really is unpredictable at this point, and we have taken that down to a neutral, slightly negative level.
Adrian Widmer: Then the second one here, Priyal, on the investment program, the CHF 120 million to CHF 150 million. This is largely CapEx. There is about a 30% OpEx element as this is also relating to implementation of platforms, ongoing support digitalization, also training activities and so on. So about 30% of this is ongoing here OpEx, which we don't see as sort of onetime costs, but really sort of ongoing implementation and support cost.
Operator: We now have a question from the line of Paul Roger from BNP Paribas Exane.
Unknown Analyst: It's [ Anna Schumacher ] on for Paul today. I have two. Does the rightsizing China suggests you believe the slowdown is structural rather than cyclical? And will it impact your distribution strategy in the country? And secondly, when do you expect to see any benefits of reshoring in the U.S.? And how meaningful could it be? And what are your expectations for U.S. infra next year?
Thomas Hasler: Okay. Thank you. Yes, I think on -- we have to differentiate in China between the two segments. I think the residential market expectation also for the next 1 or 2 years are still on a very low level. So this overbuild is not being addressed and it is also of less a priority for the Chinese government. So here, this is a market that will remain challenged probably for a year or 2 longer. And therefore, our, let's say, adjustments are structural in nature by now serving the reduced volumes with our market leader position that we have in that segment and also adapting the portfolio to the key application, the tile setting and waterproofing area, where we have a dominant position and also, let's say, discontinue low-margin sections of that market. The distribution channels are well established. They are the backbone that we serve. Here, actually, we are adapting that distribution channel to increase the spread and be able to further get closer to the market. So here, actually, we are increasing, and this is also helping to get better coverage and build on our market leadership in the segments where we have very good margins and where we also see possibilities to outperform the market. The construction direct business is a business where we believe that this is cyclical in a way that this foreign direct investment has an impact. But at the same time, we have in China also a more maturing, let's say, base infrastructure in place that requires more refurbishment and renovation. We are working in building up this in China with our competencies. So here, I would say the foreign direct investments, not that speculative how fast that will normalize, but we have there also possibilities to offset. And here, we are structurally adjusting also to be more dominant in the refurbishment, which when you look at mature markets like Europe or the U.S., this is the core of our business in construction. It has been relatively small in China so far, but that's a great opportunity for us to offset some other weaknesses. And then on the U.S., I'm always optimistic about the U.S. market. The U.S. market has seen a great start into the year. It has then been challenged with uncertainties and unpredictabilities, which many projects for industrialization or reshoring have been put on hold, ready to go. These projects have been, let's say, engineered to the level where it can start digging and building. And this is now a bit speculative question when will enough clarity be there. But I think with the tariff discussions, things are more and more becoming, let's say, not predictable, but it is easier for corporations to make conclusions. And I expect that we see in '26 on the reshoring, some nice progression as this holdback of projects as we see at the moment, will probably then be overwhelmed by also serving the increased demand. The consumption in the U.S. is not that bad. And I think this is a bit artificially pushed back. And here, I'm more optimistic that this will take place going into'26.
Operator: The next question comes from the line of Elodie Rall from JPMorgan.
Elodie Rall: I have three, if I may. First of all, on the China restructuring, you're talking about reducing headcount by 1,500. So can you give us a bit of color about how much that this represent as a percentage of China headcount? And also how much does this represent versus the CHF 80 million to CHF 100 million total cost savings? How much is China from there? And how could we think about China growth in H1, therefore, next year, given still the hard comp, I believe. So all the growth will be H2, I believe. Second, you talk about other weak markets driving this midterm growth outlook cut. So maybe you can elaborate on what they are? And lastly, on dividends, I was wondering if you would aim to protect the dividend level given additional cost savings -- costs this year.
Thomas Hasler: Okay. Let me start with the China restructuring. The 1,500 employees and the largest portion from a single country comes from China. And it is a substantial reduction. It's a double-digit reduction of the Chinese workforce that is ongoing. This is something we are implementing without any further delay, but this is substantial. But we also have other markets that are -- or segments of markets is maybe the better way to put it because it's not countries or markets. It is actually segments that have softer performance. And here, this will then, in some, come up with the 1,500 employees. You asked about the China impact in H1 next year. it is clear that we will have some spillover from this year into next year as the effects that you have seen in Q3 and that we also expect to be significant in Q4 will, of course, compared to the base of the first half of '25, still be negative, but it will then also turn in the second half of next year and the impact will also, let's say, reduce. And as I mentioned before, Asia Pacific has a strong performance. It is the strongest if we exclude China. So here, we're also confident that Asia Pacific will contribute to the overall group growth next year, having strong engines in Southeast Asia and India. Then the dividend, maybe.
Adrian Widmer: Well, maybe on the dividend, obviously, this is then a decision by the Board. This has not been taken yet, but I'm not expecting here that, let's say, the program will have a negative impact here on our dividend policy.
Elodie Rall: And sorry, just to come back on China. How much does this represent in terms of the overall CHF 80 million to CHF 100 million cost savings -- cost this year, cost restructuring?
Thomas Hasler: This is a bit too early. I mean we are going to really make an effort then in 4 weeks' time to give you more granularity about the program in regards to the investments, but also in regards to the cost split and so on. But it's clear, it is significant. I mean that's -- but it would be premature now to go into the details, but China is a large portion of the structural adjustment.
Elodie Rall: And just to finish up on my previous question, what are the other markets that you have identified as weak?
Thomas Hasler: Yes. The point is, as I mentioned, markets are soft. Weak is something I attribute to segments, segments where you see that, for instance, in Europe, we had a very good initiative on energy savings initiative coming from the Green Deal. These are fading. These are implications that we are, of course, considering also in our business. But the markets overall are soft. Europe is soft, but we see Eastern Europe is coming back. We also see that the northern part of Europe. So here, when I look into '26, I'm quite optimistic that we will see positive trends.
Operator: We now have a question from the line of Ephrem Ravi from Citigroup.
Ephrem Ravi: So two questions. Firstly, given the reduction in the overall growth target to Priyal's point, 2.5% was the market. But does this change your view on the market going forward? Or this is strictly a function of the fact that last 2 years, the growth has been less than your 2023 to 2028, 6% to 9%. So you're just resetting for the -- for what's already happened and your medium-term actual view in terms of how the markets are going to grow hasn't really changed. So it's just mainly a mark-to-market of what's already happened in terms of local currency growth so far? And secondly, China, I thought it was about CHF 1.2 billion of sales last year. And if it is down double-digit percentage, probably goes down to closer to CHF 1 billion. So given the low base, do you expect that to kind of be less of a drag going forward? So in theory, you should see faster growth just because of the mix effect of China not being a drag being on the numbers?
Thomas Hasler: Yes. I think what is very important in our adjustment of our midterm guidance, this adjustment is related to our assumptions of the market compared to the original assumption. For us, most important is the outperformance of the market wherever they are. And this is in our strategy clearly outlined with the market penetration. We have not changed our ambitions on the outperformance of the competition and the market. And we also haven't changed our approach to be the consolidator in a very fragmented market through our acquisition activities, which I think also this year, we see with 5 transactions and the full pipeline of prospects. I think we are very confident on those elements where we have it in our hands. The markets, we had to reflect and also consider that there is also not a balancing act between the regions. We have a situation where actually softness is a global topic, with a few exceptions like maybe the Middle East, but not so relevant in the global scheme. So here, it is -- this is the driving factor for the adjustment is that we do reduce the market aspect, but do not change our commitment to outperform organically and then also on the acquisition, we will deliver as we originally have indicated.
Operator: The next question comes from the line of Martin Flueckiger from Kepler Cheuvreux.
Martin Flueckiger: Martin Flueckiger from Kepler Cheuvreux. I've got three questions. And I suppose I'll take one at a time. Firstly, I'd just like to go back to your statements regarding pricing in the 9-month period. If I understood you correctly, you were talking about 0.6% up year-to-date, excluding China. Now I was just wondering what does that mean for the group overall because that's really the number, I guess, that interests most people. That's my first question. I'll come back with the second one.
Adrian Widmer: Yes. I mean, this means overall, it's pretty much a flattish picture for the group overall.
Martin Flueckiger: Okay. And then secondly, you were talking about -- I think Thomas was talking about data centers being ramping up pretty rapidly in the U.S. Can you -- if I remember correctly, in the U.S., data centers account for about 8% of sales -- construction sales. Has that number changed in the 9-month period? And what kind of growth do you expect from this vertical in 2026? That's my second question.
Thomas Hasler: Yes, you are right. This is about the magnitude. And this is the fastest-growing segment in construction and therefore, also logically, the contribution to the overall construction business in the U.S. is increasing, but it's about 8%. And what makes us very optimistic, I mean, these are also projects that are lined up. They are executed. They are actually rushed in execution whenever possible. So the lineup of projects that we have visibility gives us high confidence for the next 18 to 24 months. So this is a business that we like very much as it is also a premium business. It is driven by customers that buy not, let's say, products or systems, they buy peace of mind. They want to have undisrupted operations 24/7, 365. And that's a key element of our unique position in that market. Not only in the U.S., this spreads all over the globe because the owners of the data centers have very similar names at the end, and they don't want to take risks when they go abroad. And therefore, we are also leveraging that very much into Europe and other parts of the world.
Martin Flueckiger: Okay. But sorry, just to clarify, when you say it's the fastest-growing segment in the U.S., I guess that's not really surprising. But I was just wondering whether you could tell us what kind of growth Sika is expecting from data centers in the U.S. in 2026. Do you have any broad idea at this point in time?
Thomas Hasler: Of course, I have. And I would sum it up this is double-digit growing and this is significant. So it is not 10% or 11%. It's really a business that has drive and where we also put full focus on. This is the time.
Martin Flueckiger: Okay. That's helpful. And then finally, my third question, could you talk a little bit about competitive pressures in construction chemicals this year, what you're seeing on the ground and whether it's intensifying or whether it's stable, whether there are any particular regions apart from China where you're seeing competitive pressures easing or worsening?
Thomas Hasler: I think here -- I mean, China is a particular case, and I think Adrian indicated, China is, of course, price is super relevant. And as he mentioned, the overall group is at 0.6% without China. With China, we are at neutral. So China is a market in itself. But when I look at the rest of the globe, you can say -- when you have a booming market, pricing is probably less pressures because it's about getting the jobs done. We don't have booming markets everywhere. Therefore, I would say this is a normal situation where price is of high relevance, but nothing exceptional. Nothing -- would you say this is kind of strange. This is a normal behavior of markets when volume are slow, and this comes from small, medium, large. This is nothing in particular, nothing has really changed. But of course, when you have soft markets, then here, the tendency is that you have more pressure on price. But I think our performance in the first 9 months demonstrates we do have pricing power. We have here a leadership position that we can. This is probably for small players, midsized player, a bit less convenient as they are suffering more in soft times.
Operator: We now have a question from the line of Cedar Ekblom from Morgan Stanley.
Cedar Ekblom: I've got some follow-ups, please. On the growth for 2026, the exit rate at the end of this year is likely to be breakeven, maybe even modestly negative if trends don't really change in your core markets. I'd like to understand how we get to 3% in 2026. I think Elodie touched on this question, but I'd like to hear explicitly if you actually think 3% is the right number for 2026 based on what you see today, appreciating that things can change or if in 2026, we should actually be anchoring around a number below that range within the potential for growth to accelerate into '27 and beyond. So that's the first question. And then the second question, just in terms of the guidance on year-on-year margin improvement into 2026. So this year, I think it's 19.5% to 19.8% without the costs. And then if I've got the moving parts right, you have CHF 80 million of cost saves from the program next year. You have CHF 40 million synergies still to come if I look at the midpoint of what you're guiding to. So that gives me about 100 basis points of margin improvement. But I'd expect your leverage is still going to be negative. I mean, if I look at that chart on Slide 8, I think it is, you have negative operating leverage this year with growth that's probably not dissimilar to what the growth is going to be like next year unless anything doesn't change. So what other levers should we be thinking about into next year that actually allow us to see margins rise? Is there something we should be thinking about on gross margins improving? Is there some other kind of cost initiative that we should think about beyond this CHF 80 million program, just like sort of ordinary course of business efforts that's sort of coming on top of the CHF 80 million sort of special program? So those would be the two questions. Exit rate on growth is clearly below the 3%. How do we get to 3%? And then how do we actually get higher margins year-on-year even withstanding the 100 basis points or so of improvement that comes from this program plus synergies not yet come through from MBCC.
Thomas Hasler: Okay. Thank you, Cedar. And I take the first question, and it's probably the most difficult question because it is clear. We don't know what's going on to happen next year. So let me phrase it in a way. This is not a guidance for next year. But if we assume everything equal, China, Europe, North America and so on, your assumptions are correct, that the exit rate at the end of the year will be low modest growth going into next year. We will still have spillovers from China. We will have benefits from trends that are supporting, but the magnitude to the lower end of our midterm or our adjusted midterm guidance is still there. So this is not yet a guidance, but it's also not a promise that every year of the coming 3 years will be within that range. I think the first year is probably the one that has, let's say, the highest challenge, but we also anticipate that there's a good likelihood in '27, '28, where we can substantially also move on that depending on how markets are evolving. So here, I think we have to be clear. This is not a straight line. This is also a line of recovery, which we can drive to some degree ourselves. I think we have a healthy acquisition pipeline. We see there some opportunities. I think also when we look at the pricing power that we have and also expecting that China is going to, let's say, be less impactful. So we have this element as well. But this is not a guarantee at this point of time that this 3% to 6% will be applicable to every of the consecutive years. Over the 3 years, we are very confident. But going into next year, we will assess the situation, of course, we will assess the markets and then we will establish our proper guidance for 2026.
Adrian Widmer: And on the, let's say, the elements here of the margin improvements, and it's essentially the ones we're driving. I think there is also an opportunity on, let's say, the material margin, the gross margin to continue to drive. I mean, you have the synergies, as you mentioned, there will be another 30 to 40 basis points. And our improvement, let's say, bucket, which will clearly be driven here by Fast Forward program here, let's say, the sort of the CHF 80 million impact plus the ongoing activities we have, but there is not going to be an additional, let's say, program on top of it, but really sort of driving the different elements to an EBITDA of above 20%.
Operator: We now have a question from the line of Arnaud Lehmann from Bank of America.
Arnaud Lehmann: Could we talk a little bit about the gross margin? I guess that was quite a solid performance in the third quarter. I think a 5-year [indiscernible] when there was back in Q3 2020. So is this the new normal? Is 55%, you believe the new normal going forward for Sika and into 2026? That's the upper end of your historical range? Or do you think there could be upside to this? My second question is coming back on the Fast Forward plan. Is it something you've been thinking about in the last years or in the last months, let's say, was it something you were going to do anyway? Or is this more of a reactive move on the back of the recent decline in Chinese volumes or maybe a little bit of both? And the third question and last one on -- you hinted in the previous question around M&A activity. Considering the slower trends in underlying markets, do you think you could ramp up M&A activity while remaining within the criteria of your A- credit rating?
Adrian Widmer: Let me take here the first one. Thanks, Arnaud, for the question. I think here, of course, the 54% to 55%, that's is for us clearly sort of also a range where we sort of monitor and steer the business. I mean it's never been sort of a very sort of dogmatic, let's say, hard target. And I think there is several elements obviously impacting here material margin, which, again, for us is an important element to steer the business. I think we're obviously here that the pricing element, selling value, driving innovation, also being able for us to position our solutions at the higher value point is important and an ongoing activity. I think on the input cost side, we have more recently seen, I would say, a more favorable picture also driving here clearly initiatives to improve it. So I think there is obviously a bit of upside here on the material margin, although this is influenced by many sort of different elements. So I think it's obviously something we actively steer as one of our here profitability buckets overall.
Thomas Hasler: Okay. Then Arnaud, on the Fast Forward question, it's an interesting question because it has both elements. Digitalization is something we have highlighted as a megatrend in our strategy. And we are doing quite well in progressing. We are doing -- we bring digital solution. We just announced this week our Sika Carbon Compass. You can say, yes, we do. We are implementing SAP across the globe. But honestly, the speed of adoption, the speed of implementation is, in my view, not the speed that I would like to see. Digitalization has a different speed than construction industry and the construction industry is our great opportunity to be here the unprecedented leader in digitalization. So this has been, let's say, something I have observed over a longer period of time than 2, 3 months. And I see this as a great opportunity here to make firm steps, invest into the customer value. The customers are challenged in many different ways. Digitalization can ease, let's say, those complexities, can make business easier to execute and focus on core things. I think this is something that we want to drive, and this is the opportunity to integrate it also into this fast forward program. We have done great. I mean, Sika has a unique data pool. It's the leader in the market, the innovation leader, it's the market leader. We have data all over the globe. We are creating a pool that we can exclusively use to do data mining and leveraging those competencies. So for me, I'm a big fan of this digitalization, and I'm happy that Fast Forward gives us now also the possibility to accelerate substantially, let's say, on the tools, on the solutions, but also upskilling our organization that we also here can adopt much faster than in a regular environment. The other part, let's say, the China, the restructuring in general is something that has become in line with our, let's say, guidance adjustment for the midterm. Markets are soft, markets, we cannot change them. But in markets that are soft, this is the best time to make substantial adjustments. This is the time to act because when you act at this time out of a position of strength, you can then -- when backlogs are worked off, when markets are turning, you are in the strongest position to benefit from a boom in construction that will come, that has to come. The underlying demand is there. It's not served. So it is also a point that came to our realization over the course of this year and then more pronounced in the second half, which ultimately results in this Fast Forward program with the two elements that are super relevant, short term improvements, but of course, then also more midterm, let's say, benefits for the customer, driving our growth and utilizing the unique, let's say, digital footprint that we can have and that we want to have going forward. This is something I consider these digital capabilities, a key competitive advantage that we are going to achieve. Here, size matters. The globalization matters. We have a global input. We have it from Japan, China, India, Middle East, Europe, North and South America. Now all these bundled together gives us huge opportunities, which I want to tackle with our Fast Forward in an accelerated way.
Arnaud Lehmann: And on M&A?
Thomas Hasler: Sorry, M&A. I think here, I come back to the prior question. I mentioned smaller and midsized companies are more challenged when it comes to pricing power in soft markets. And we see here a clear, let's say, pain level reach for small and midsized player that they are considering selling their companies, even so it is probably not the best time to get the best price, but they hang in there and they consider selling much more now than maybe a year or 2 ago. And yes, we do have here also opportunities to, let's say, to acquire for attractive multiples business that maybe a year or 2 ago would have rejected to entertain. And I do think with our strong cash generation that we also have the ammunition to serve those increased possibilities. But it's also -- I think as always, every challenge has its opportunity. The opportunities on M&A are excellent, and we have the power and the will also to take advantage.
Operator: The next question comes from the line of Ghosh, Pujarini from Bernstein.
Pujarini Ghosh: So I have a few. So my first question is on the EBITDA margin guidance for this year. So without the restructuring costs, you have not cut your margin guidance. And in 9 months, you've done 19.2%. So to get to the bottom end of the range without the restructuring, you would need to do something like 20.5% in Q4. And looking at the historical trends, we've never seen such a big jump between Q3 and Q4. So could you explain why this year might be different and the various levers that you could pull in Q4 to get close to your target? And my second question is just a housekeeping. So what is your current guidance on the tax rate for the full year and for future years? And finally, coming back to the China restructuring plan. So could -- so of the CHF 150 million to CHF 200 million cost savings, could you give the split between how much of this would come from the restructuring in China and how much from the investment program that you're going to do?
Adrian Widmer: Thanks, Pujarini. I'll take here the question one by one. On the 2025 EBITDA guidance here, I think a couple of points. On the one hand, you're right, the 19.2% here in the first 9 months. As I mentioned here before, we have about CHF 18 million of here one-off costs already included in Q3. So that's one element that basically puts here, let's say, the anchor at 19.4% and also in terms of, let's say, the one-offs we're guiding for the CHF 80 million to CHF 100 million, not everything is EBITDA relevant. We have about 25% to 30%, which is more sort of write-downs and impairments overall, which obviously then for Q4, yes, means, of course, a solid profitability quarter to, let's say, get at least here to the lower range here of the 19.5% to 19.8%. On the tax rate, here we had in previous years as reported, also one or the other positive impact, one-off effect. I'm expecting here for this year sort of around 23% in terms of the overall tax rate, which is also the level here of the next years to be expected roughly. And thirdly, on the question here of, let's say, sort of the China impact and the breakdown, again, I would like to defer here the answer and more granularity then to our November event where we will provide more sort of granularity on the various aspects of the program.
Operator: We now have a question from the line of Patrick Rafaisz from UBS.
Patrick Rafaisz: Two questions. One is on your cash conversion targets. You confirmed the 10% plus for this year. I was just wondering with the extra spending for the Fast Forward program, both on the cost and the CapEx, would you already fully commit to a 10% plus cash conversion also for '26? That's the first question. Maybe related to that, can you also talk a bit about the phasing of these investments? And then the second question would be on China and the portfolio adaptation you talked about. Can you add some color around the share within the China business that we are talking about that you are exiting due to the maybe market conditions or too low profitability? And also how long that will take to implement?
Adrian Widmer: Good. Well, let's -- thanks, Patrick. I'll take the first two on the cash conversion, yes, clearly also confirming for '26 here, the targets to remain in place in terms of the cash conversion of at least 10% of net sales. Obviously, here, there is an additional element of CapEx, but that will be within that threshold. Second one on the phasing, again, I'll try again to convince you that we will provide more granularity then on the various sort of elements of the program, also the impact and the phasing then at the end of November.
Thomas Hasler: Good. And then Patrick, on the China business. Our China distribution business is built on exclusive distributors all over China. And with the start of the softness of the market, our China team has tried to introduce, let's say, lower-margin trading products to support our distributors so that they can take a bigger share of wallet. And this came, of course, at the backside that the top line was then still showing some progression, but dilutive on material and profit margin. And this came then to a level where we had to say this needs to be reversed. So this has been a rather short-term element that has been introduced, and it is also something that we can flush out relatively soon. But it will be visible this year and next year as we -- some part is still in this year from the first half, and it will be out in the second half next year. So we will have some comps there that are maybe not so clear to read, but this is rather something that has been used tactically, but had to be revised. And that's what I mean with the core range. The core range, which is our tile shaping range and waterproofing range, which we produce ourselves and not tolling products that are adjacencies.
Operator: The next question comes from the line of Alessandro Foletti from Octavian.
Alessandro Foletti: Just on the automotive business, maybe we don't speak much about it. Obviously, it has been growing strongly in China, but how is it doing in the other regions, particularly also, yes, Europe and the U.S., I would guess.
Thomas Hasler: Yes. I take that lately. I think, yes, we haven't talked much. But as you have seen, our growth in the industrial area is at organically 0.8%. It is doing better than our construction organically. It has here support from China, but also our business in Europe and in North America is holding strong despite a declining volume situation. And also, especially in Europe, we have still, let's say, a bigger, let's say, variation of models in the market, which means we are carrying more complexity serving, let's say, our customers. And despite that, we can still have above the build rate top line and especially also maintain a very healthy bottom line in that business. It is having a different direction. I think in Europe, we see also going forward, probably a comeback of the incentives for the electrification. This will be very positive. Germany is considering this for the years to come. So I'm on the automotive side in Europe, with the conversion, we will have more contribution. We have more opportunities. So I think we will see a positive trend in Europe. And in North America, we have there a bit the holdback with the tariffs. The automotive business in North America is highly, let's say, linked between the three countries with the supply chain. We serve the market out of Mexico and of the U.S. But also here, there's a different demand. The electrification is less of a relevance. It is truck and SUVs, pickups are relevant. These are for us higher contribution vehicles anyhow. But we also expect that when the new North American trade agreement is finalized, which hopefully takes place by the beginning of next year, then there will be also clarity and investments in automotive so that they can come back with competitive offerings to the end market, which at the moment is hesitant to buy in North America. I'm optimistic. I mean the business also in Brazil is doing very well. The business in Southeast Asia is doing very well. They are, of course, of smaller volumes than the three main markets. But I think we will have year-over-year, nice contribution from the automotive or industrial side.
Alessandro Foletti: Right. But I'm not sure I get it right. It seems from your talk that maybe both in Europe and the U.S. is maybe still slight negative or flattish?
Thomas Hasler: Yes. Yes. I mean the build rates are minus 3%, minus 4%, the car build rates. And we are flattish in Europe and slightly below in North America.
Operator: We now have a question from the line of Yassine Touahri from On Field Investment Research.
Yassine Touahri: Just two questions on my side. We've seen oil prices coming off over the past couple of months. Does it mean that we should see limited raw material inflation in -- at the beginning of 2026? Or -- and also a relatively muted pricing environment? Should we think of the coming quarter being close to what we've seen with relatively prices up a little bit and costs broadly in line with this pricing? And then my second question would be on the competitive landscape. Do you see -- I think some of the largest building material company in China, CNBM and [ Conch ] have started to invest in mortar, in construction chemicals. Do you see competition in China being tougher today than it was 5 years ago? And another one on this -- on the competitive landscape. I think Kingspan in the U.S. is planning to open a PVC roofing membrane next year. Do you think it could have an impact on your activity? Or do you believe they will target different segments?
Thomas Hasler: Okay. I think the first question was on oil prices, right?
Yassine Touahri: Yes. And whether it means that we should continue to -- we could continue to have an environment with limited price increase and limited cost inflation.
Thomas Hasler: Yes. I mean we -- this is quite volatile. It is low at the moment. This is, in general, for us a positive. But I would say it's limited. I mean, this is also what we have talked about this year. There is -- some commodities have some softening, but others are still increasing cement, for instance. So I think on the input side, I think we are having here as far as we can predict, we have a relatively stable environment. So that is giving us also the possibility to make our price adjustments in line with our margin expectation. So I'm not concerned. But of course, things can change if one source comes unavailable and prices could rapidly move upwards. But at the moment, it's not a major concern. The -- and the second question was on the competitive landscape in China. I mean, here, you have to see that we are the only remaining sizable international construction chemical player in China for years. This is not just yesterday or the day before. This is our position in China. We have an exclusive position in the direct construction market. This is -- these are the higher-end construction. I talked about the multinationals, but I also talk about, let's say, sensitive infrastructures, nuclear power plants and others, airports and so on. So we have been able -- I mean, there are thousands of players in China and super aggressive in all aspects, but we have been able to hold strong in this market. And I believe our possibility to benefit through our, let's say, global excellence in a market that is maturing in a market that is also demanding higher building codes. The government is pushing for higher building codes as they see the adversal effect of cheap, let's say, infrastructure built 10 or 20 years ago. And we have a reputation in China that is outstanding, and we can also enlarge our addressable market in China through this trend. So this is on the direct side. On the indirect side, I talked about our distribution. I talked -- but you have to see that this is an application where our company has a market-leading position in China. Our brand, our international brand stands for reliable products to the homeowners. Homeowners, they buy, let's say, expensive tiles from Italy and homeowners do care that they are installed with a brand of trust. That's our unique -- of course, our products are up to the highest standards. But it is also our network that involves not only the applicator, but also the owner bring across this value. And this is very difficult for, let's say, the mainstream Chinese competitors to attack us. They attack themselves. So it is Oriental Yuhong and Nippon Paints that are crossing each other's way left and right and through brutal price war try to steal each other's market. Our market is much more protected through our unique positioning with our brand in China. And then...
Yassine Touahri: Kingspan, yes.
Thomas Hasler: I think -- I don't know if I should comment. I mean, I don't see it as a threat, not at all. I mean the North American roofing market is huge, and it has sizable players. I mean, sizable. And we are active in a very, let's say, clear designated area with large commercial buildings, where we have a reputation, where we have specifications, where we have applicators, I feel well protected. I have no fear. But if you go in such a market where there are the big boys playing, I would say I have respect for the courage to go into that market, but that's not me to comment and it's not me to make assessments there. It is an attractive market. I agree. It is for us, a fantastic market. But I think we have here also a unique position with our focus on the high end on durable and sustainable solutions with owners, with the focus on clear commercial large-scale roofs.
Dominik Slappnig: Thank you very much. I think this brings us to the end of our call. We take this opportunity as well to highlight the date of our Fast Forward Investor and Media Conference on November 27. The conference will be held in Zurich, Tüffenwies, and it will start at 10 a.m. CET. So for all these who would like to fly in and out the same day, I think this will be possible. With this, we thank you for listening to our call and for your interest in Sika. We wish you all the best.
Thomas Hasler: Thank you.
Adrian Widmer: Thank you very much. Bye-bye.
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.