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Operator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Scandinavian Tobacco Group Full Year 2025 Results Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Torben Sand. Please go ahead.
Torben Sand: Thank you, and good morning, and welcome to Scandinavian Tobacco Group's webcast for the Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2025 results. My name is, as said, Torben Sand, and I'm Director of Investor Relations and External Communications. And I am today, as usual, joined by our CEO, Niels Frederiksen; and our CFO, Marianne Rorslev Bock. Please turn to the next slide for today's webcast agenda. Niels will start the presentation by giving you a brief overview of the highlights, including a snapshot of the key financial data. Niels will also summarize a few of the highlights from our new strategy that we launched last year, Focus2030. Then Niels will move on to share more details on the performance of our product categories before Marianne takes over and give you an update on the financial performance in our 3 reporting divisions. Marianne will also give more details about the financial performance, including comments on cash flow, leverage and capital allocation. Niels will conclude the call by giving some insights into the expectations for the full year 2026. After the pre-prepared presentation, we will conduct a Q&A session where we will be pleased to take any questions you might have. Before we start, I ask you to pay special attention to our disclaimer on forward-looking statements, which can be found on Page #3 in this slide deck. Now please turn to Slide #5, and I leave the word to our CEO, Niels Frederiksen.
Niels Frederiksen: Thank you, Torben, and welcome to the call. 2025 became a challenging year for Scandinavian Tobacco Group with a combination of external disruptions and internal operational issues. Tariffs and lower consumer sentiment in the U.S. directly impacted our handmade cigar business and the category experienced fierce price competition, both in retail and in the online distribution channels. Our machine-rolled cigar business continued to be under pressure, while our investment in our nicotine pouch business delivered good contributions to the group's financial performance. Throughout the year, we have concentrated our efforts on protecting our market positions, integrating Mac Baren and growing our handmade and nicotine pouch businesses. And given the difficult circumstances, I am satisfied with our results for the year despite having to reduce our full year expectations in May as a consequence of the increased tariffs. 2025 was a year where we launched our new strategy, Focus2030, and we released new financial ambitions, and we adapted a new more flexible shareholder return policy. At our Capital Markets Day on November 20 last year, we unfolded the new strategy but today, we will also provide a few highlights on this later in the call. We expect 2026 to be a year where geopolitical uncertainty will remain a market condition and economic growth will be challenging. For Scandinavian Tobacco Group, this means that our main priorities in the year will be to stabilize earnings in our machine-rolled cigar and smoking tobacco business and inject new energy and growth into our strong handmade cigar business. We will also continue to grow our promising nicotine pouch business. Now please turn to Slide #6. Let me now share a few financial highlights for the year. Marianne will give more details about the financial performance and the quarterly development later in the presentation. But reported net sales were DKK 9.36 billion compared with our guidance of DKK 9.1 billion to DKK 9.2 billion, and the EBITDA margin before special items was 19.8% compared with our guidance of 19.5% to 20.5%. Overall, this results in an EBITDA before special items in line with our expectations. The free cash flow before acquisition came in more than DKK 200 million below our guidance due to a delay in the collection of certain receivables due to the SAP implementation in Europe. The issue has been solved and as the deviation is a phasing issue, the free cash flow will be equally positively impacting 2026. Marianne will give you more details in her part of the call. Adjusted earnings per share were DKK 10.8, in line with our guidance of DKK 10 to DKK 12 per share. Please turn to Slide #7. On 20th November, we launched our new 5-year strategy in connection with the Capital Markets Day, and you can find a recorded version of the event on our website. The purpose of Focus2030 is not only to create value by executing the strategy but also to develop a company that is even better positioned to deliver value beyond 2030 and we are confident that we can do so. We've defined 3 strategic priorities, each important for us to deliver on the ambitions for Focus2030. Firstly, to create a sustainable and stable machine-rolled cigar and smoking tobacco business, primarily focused on Europe. Secondly, to grow our attractive handmade cigar business anchored in the U.S. but with a stronger global footprint. And thirdly, to build a larger nicotine pouch business with even more upside in an attractive category. And in the process, we intend to turn the declining earnings trend around and we have -- sorry, in the process, we intend to turn the declining earnings trend around that we've seen over the past 3 years and create value for consumers, employees and shareholders. The new strategy is anchored in our strong brands and strong market positions across our diversified portfolio. However, the market conditions and the strategy call for us to allocate resources differently going forward to ensure that we focus on and capture what we see as the largest growth opportunities. And our power brands strategy is tailored to facilitate this. The strategy addresses the areas that we need to fix because they are not performing up to expectations, but also the areas where we do well and where we need to push further to deliver even better results, all with a combined ambition to build a sustainable and growing company with more potential beyond 2030. We also introduced new financial ambitions, which are to significantly improve the return on invested capital from about 7.9% in 2025 to more than 11% in 2030, to deliver an incremental increase in EBIT and a free cash flow generation exceeding DKK 1.2 billion in 2030. Acquisitions as well as divestments of less core assets will continuously be evaluated, assuming these potential transactions support our strategy as well as our financial ambitions. The shareholder return policy has been adapted to be more -- to a more flexible dividend payout ratio policy based on 40% to 60% payout ratio against adjusted earnings per share, supplemented by share repurchases when the projected leverage ratio allows. Please now turn slide to Slide #8. To meet our financial ambition and the objectives in Focus2030, we need to deliver on 3 strategic priorities. Growing handmade cigars will be defined as growing net sales as well as delivering incremental profit growth to the group. The key growth drivers are expected to -- the key growth drivers are expected to be delivered by a combination of increasing our market share of own brands in the U.S. from approximately 13% to more than 15% in 2030 as well as through an expansion in our retail network. This expansion will be driven by our power brands, which in 2025 have 5% overall market share. Stabilizing the machine-rolled cigar business requires a focus on protecting profits and cash flow. The path to success is offsetting the structural volume decline in the categories through price management and market share gains. Mitigating structural market trends through intensified market share focus is reflected in the ambition to increase volume market share in key European markets from 26.8% in 2025 to more than 29% in 2030. And a key component to the profit growth will also be through simplification of our portfolio by almost 50%. Finally, accelerating our nicotine pouch business is expected to deliver important contributions to the group's growth in net sales and profits in Europe. We expect to build on existing market share positions in Sweden and in the U.K. but also in other markets where our capabilities within distribution and access to the market provide us with an advantage. Now let's turn 2 slides -- to Slide #10. Machine-rolled cigars and smoking tobacco comprised 50% of group net sales in 2025 with handmade 35%, nicotine pouches at 5% and others at 10%. Others include accessories and bar sales, amongst others. For the full year, organic net sales growth was minus 3%, where handmade cigars delivered flat organic net sales, machine-rolled cigars and smoking tobacco minus 1% and nicotine pouches a negative 17% growth. However, the organic growth for nicotine pouches does not reflect the underlying progress of our power brand, XQS, which delivered a high double-digit organic growth. The negative growth for the category was significantly impacted by the discontinued online distribution of ZYN from the second half of 2024. For the first time, we are giving details on the gross margin structure for our product categories. For the group, the gross margin before special items was 44% for the full year of 2025. The product category machine-rolled cigars and smoking tobacco delivered a 51% margin, handmade cigars, 41% and our nicotine pouch business, 36%. Going forward, we intend to share these details in order for you to get a sense of the progress we make in our strategic priorities. Now let's move on to each of the categories, and please turn to Slide #11. The market for handmade cigars in the U.S. continued to contract in 2025 by an estimated mid-single-digit percentage. For 2026, we expect a 4% total market volume decline rate. We still estimate the underlying longer-term decline rate to be a lower single-digit number. For the full year 2025, reported net sales decreased by 4% for the category with organic net sales being broadly unchanged. Reported growth was impacted by the development in currencies. Increasing organic net sales in retail and pricing were offset by underlying volume declines in the U.S. market and by international sales. Gross margin before special items have been on a declining trend for the past 2 years. For 2025, the margin was 41.4%, with the main drivers for the decline being fierce competition in our online distribution channel, and negative impact from increasing tariffs and consumers trading down. The data illustrated in the chart show the development in the last 12 months data, not the specific quarterly data. For the fourth quarter, our category performance was 1% organic net sales growth and was positively impacted by business-to-business sales in the U.S. and continued growth in our retail stores. The sales of handmade cigars to U.S. wholesalers and distributors, the business-to-business market continued to recover in the fourth quarter and delivered a 6% increase following a low single-digit growth in the third quarter. Sales in our retail stores continued to increase, driven by new store openings, although the same-store sales were slightly down due to a temporary rebuild of our largest store in Dallas, Texas. And finally, our online sales of handmade cigars were broadly unchanged, where sales to our international markets decreased during the quarter. Now please turn to Slide #12, and we'll talk about machine-rolled cigars and smoking tobacco. For machine-rolled cigars and smoking tobacco reported growth in net sales was 2% for the full year. The growth was impacted by the acquisition of Mac Baren from the second half of 2024, while organic growth in net sales was slightly negative by 0.5%. The gross margin before special items was 50.8%, broadly in line with the full year of 2024. But as the graph also indicates the last 12 months margin declined -- sorry, the last 12 months margin declined significantly throughout 2024, primarily as a result of the high volume decline rates we experienced in machine-rolled cigars throughout 2024. In that context, the stabilization of the category margin is encouraging, although still not satisfactory. The current margin level remains negatively impacted by changes in product and market mix as well as disruptions caused by our SAP rollout in Europe. With the financial ambitions we have communicated, we need to protect and improve the margin, not only for machine-rolled cigars but also for smoking tobacco. For the fourth quarter, organic net sales for the category were unchanged, comprised by a low single-digit growth in machine-rolled cigars and a low single-digit decline in smoking tobacco. Now let me give you an update on the market share development in our machine-rolled cigars. The total market for machine-rolled cigars in Europe is estimated to have declined by 1.2% in the full year of 2025 based on preliminary data for our 7 key markets and with the decline rate for the fourth quarter estimated to be 2.8%. The data can deviate somewhat quarter-by-quarter and year-by-year from the underlying trends, and we don't regard 2025 market development as an indication of a sustainable improvement. Our base scenario of 2% to 3% structural decline rate is maintained, and for 2026, we expect a 3% market decline in Europe. Measured by our market share, we experienced a stabilization in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter. The market share index was 26.3% for the fourth quarter and 26.8% for the full year of 2025. As mentioned with the Focus2030 strategy, we will invest in strengthening our positions as stronger market share positions are crucial to deliver long-term value in the category. With this, please turn to the next slide. So moving on to next-generation products, which comprises our nicotine pouch business and currently accounts for 5% of group net sales and slightly less of gross profits. For the full year 2025, reported net sales growth was 2% and organic growth was minus 17%. However, these data points do not give the full picture of the positive development we experienced for the category. The full year growth was significantly impacted by the discontinued distribution of ZYN in the U.S. but the reported growth rates were also impacted by the nicotine pouch portfolio we acquired from Mac Baren in the middle of 2024 and the ongoing streamlining of the brands, ACE and GRITT now being sold in fewer markets. Importantly, our brand XQS delivered 55% organic net sales growth and the market share in Sweden increased from 7.8% in 2024 to 12.3% in 2025. And by the end of 2025, the market share was above 13%. Our market share in the U.K. also improved during the year, although it is still only close to 1%. The category gross margin before special items was broadly unchanged at the level of 35% for the full year 2025 compared to 2024. As a result of the continued expansion of XQS to new markets and with investments to increase market positions, the EBITDA margin was only slightly positive for the year. During the fourth quarter, our nicotine pouch business delivered 42% reported net sales growth and 37% organic net sales growth. XQS -- the XQS brand delivering 87% organic growth, driven by a strong performance in the U.K. and Sweden. With this, I will now leave the word to Marianne for more details on the financial performance, please turn 2 slides to Slide #15.
Marianne Bock: Thank you, Niels. In 2025, the commercial division Europe Branded comprised 36% of group net sales, North America Branded & Rest of the World, 33% and North America Online & Retail 31%. For the full year, organic net sales growth for the group was minus 3%. Europe Branded delivered minus 1%; North America Branded & Rest of the World, minus 5%; and Online & Retail, minus 4%. For Online & Retail, growth was impacted by the discontinued distribution of ZYN from the second half of 2024. In the table, we have shared an overview of the margin structure for each of the divisions measured by gross margin before special items as well as EBITDA before special items. For Europe Branded, the gross margin before special items was 48%. North America Branded & Rest of the World delivered 46% and Online & Retail, 38%. These differences in margin by division reflect product and market mix and for Online & Retail business being a direct-to-consumer business, whereas the 2 other divisions are business to business. The group margin was, as already mentioned, at 44%. Measured by EBITDA, the margin differences are even wider with Online & Retail delivering the lowest margins, while North America Branded & Rest of the World delivered the highest margin, primarily as these markets do not have own sales organizations. We'll now move to each of the divisions. So please turn to Slide #16. I will begin with Europe Branded. For the full year, reported net sales grew by 6%, largely due to the acquisition of Mac Baren in the third quarter of 2024. Organic net sales growth was slightly negative as increased sales of nicotine pouches were offset by declines in machine-rolled cigars and smoking tobacco. During the year, our gross margin before special items decreased from nearly 49% in '24 to 48% in '25. The decline was driven by changes in product mix with a strong growth in net sales of our nicotine pouch brand, XQS and lower sales of smoking tobacco. The same factors contributed to a decrease in the EBITDA margin, which fell from 21% in '24 to 19.8% in '25. Overall, profit margins for Europe Branded are affected by shifts in product and market mix as well as disruption in product availability. Reported and organic net sales growth for the fourth quarter was 6%, driven by both nicotine pouches and machine-rolled cigars. However, declines in both gross margin and EBITDA margin were due to the rapid growth of nicotine pouches compared to other product categories. Now please turn to Slide #17. For the full year, reported net sales decreased by 4% and organic growth declined by 5%. The acquisition of Mac Baren contributed positively to reported growth, while the weakening of U.S. dollar against the Danish krone has a nearly equal negative impact. The full year gross margin before special items decreased from almost 51% in '24 to 46% in '25, primarily due to changes in product and market mix. This was most notably affected by lower sales of high-margin machine-rolled cigars and smoking tobacco products. For the fourth quarter, reported net sales for North America Branded & Rest of the World fell by 12%. Organic growth was negative by 7% as growth in handmade cigars could not offset a high single-digit decline in machine-rolled cigars and smoking tobacco. The category other, which includes sales of accessories and similar items, also experienced negative growth during the quarter. The decline in the gross margin during the fourth quarter was even steeper compared to the full year decrease as the quarter was compared to a particularly strong fourth quarter in 2024. Additionally, lower sales of machine-rolled cigars were primarily driven by reduced sales in our high-margin markets in Australia and Canada. These dynamics were also the main factor behind the significantly lower EBITDA margin before special items during the fourth quarter, impacting not only North America Branded division but also the group margin for the period. Now please turn to Slide #18. For the full year, North America Online & Retail reported growth in net sales decreased by 8%. Organic growth was down 4% but excluding the discontinued distribution was slightly positive. Underlying organic growth included gains in our retail stores, while our online business experienced a slight decrease. In retail, we are seeing the benefits of opening new stores over the past year. However, same-store sales were marginally lower due to a renovation of our largest store in Fort Worth, Texas, as Niels mentioned earlier. Competitive pressure remains strong in the online channel but our pricing strategies are gradually improving our market share. Throughout the year, both gross margin and EBITDA margin were affected by the intensified promotional activities aimed at expanding our market position. For the fourth quarter, reported net sales decreased by 8.6%, primarily due to currency fluctuation. Organic growth was down 0.5%, with retail achieving 7% growth and online business showing a slight decline. Gross margin and EBITDA margin before special items in the fourth quarter were impacted by the high level of promotional activities, which have continued into 2026. I'll now move to an update on group financial performance. Please turn 2 slides to Slide #20. Throughout the presentation, details regarding developments in net sales, gross margin, EBITDA margin have already been given. Now I would like to provide a few additional comments on select financial details and key metrics. In 2025, special items amounted to negative DKK 200 million compared to DKK 279 million in '24. These costs can be divided into DKK 130 million for the SAP implementation and DKK 70 million for reorganizations and the integration of Mac Baren. We expect special costs in '26 will total approximately DKK 275 million before gradually tapering off in '27. Higher net financial costs were driven by both increased net debt and the refinancing of our corporate bond, which took place in September '24. We refinanced our existing EUR 300 million bond, which matured in '24 with a new facility of similar DKK 300 million. However, the new bonds were issued with a coupon interest that was almost 3.5 percentage points higher, reflecting the prevailing market rates at that time. Financial costs, including exchange losses, increased by nearly DKK 100 million compared to 2024. We have already addressed the effect of the discontinued distribution of the ZYN nicotine pouch product, which negatively impacted group organic net sales by 1.3%. This implies that the underlying decline for the year was 1.8%. Finally, I'd like to address the decline in return on invested capital, which is a key KPI for us as we strive to meet our new financial ambition. Return on invested capital decreased to 7.9% from 9.4% in '24, while our ambition is to achieve a return on invested capital above 11% in 2030. Excluding the impact of special items, which are included in the calculation, return on invested capital was 9.3% in 2025, almost similar to '24. The decline in return on invested capital for the year was primarily due to lower EBIT as invested capital remained broadly unchanged at DKK 14.5 billion. Please turn to Slide #21. Niels mentioned in his opening remarks, the free cash flow before acquisitions was approximately DKK 200 million below our guidance. The free cash flow was DKK 595 million compared to DKK 931 million in '24, and our guidance range was DKK 800 million to DKK 1 billion. In the fourth quarter, free cash flow before acquisitions was DKK 147 million compared to DKK 604 million in the fourth quarter of '24. The lower cash flow during the quarter relative to our expectation was due to delays in collecting of receivables associated with our ERP implementation in Europe. This issue has now been resolved. Payments are beginning to be recovered, and we anticipate working capital will return to normal levels during the coming months. The delayed payments are expected to have a positive effect on cash flow during the first half of 2026. The effect on working capital during the fourth quarter resulted in an unusually negative contribution from changes in working capital with a reduction of DKK 17 million in the quarter, which was DKK 180 million lower than the positive contribution during the fourth quarter of '24. Typically, working capital changes are positive in the fourth quarter of the financial year. Other factors contributing to the lower cash flow in the fourth quarter included a reduced EBITDA and higher taxes paid, which in the illustration is included in investments and other. Now please turn one slide to Slide #22. In the fourth quarter, the leverage ratio increased from 2.9x by the end of third quarter to 3x by the end of 2025. The increase is due to a decline in EBITDA before special items compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Compared to '24, the leverage increased from 2.6x. Throughout '26, we remain fully committed to lowering the leverage ratio and working towards our target ratio of 2.5x. This is a top priority for us this year, and if our earnings come under greater pressure than anticipated, we will take necessary steps to ensure the leverage ratio is reduced. Now please turn to Slide #23. In November, we announced our capital -- new capital allocation policy, which is guided by a leverage target of 2.5x. This target determines the level of investments and shareholder payout, giving us the financial flexibility to pursue growth opportunities while delivering shareholder returns. It also emphasizes our commitment to maintaining an investment-grade credit rating. We transitioned to a payout ratio-based dividend policy, ensuring dividend distributions are closely aligned with our underlying financial performance. The dividend payout ratio is set between 40% to 60% of adjusted earnings per share. This approach will take effect with dividend allocation related to the '25 financial results and will impact the dividend proposal for the upcoming Annual General Meeting in April. Since our listing in 2016, we have consistently delivered on our shareholder returns and intend to continue doing so. Given the current leverage ratio, we believe it is prudent to propose a dividend payment of 2025 in the low end of the payout range. The Board of Directors plan to propose a dividend payout per share of DKK 4.5 corresponding to a payout ratio of 42%. As we normalize our leverage in the coming years, we intend to create greater capacity for share buybacks, which continue to be an essential component in our overall capital allocation policy. With this, I will now hand the presentation back to Niels. Please turn 2 slides to Slide #25.
Niels Frederiksen: Thank you, Marianne. For 2026, we expect the consumer trends to be unchanged for most of our product categories and markets and broadly similar to historic trends. We do appreciate that uncertainties are elevated and the risk for external disruptions remain high. However, we believe we have established good control of our internal processes and operations following the implementation of the SAP solution throughout Europe, and we are now well prepared to execute on our new strategy. For 2026, we expect group net sales growth at constant currencies to be in the range of minus 2% to plus 2%. The expectation reflects that total market volumes for machine-rolled cigars in Europe will decline by 3% and consumption of handmade cigars in the U.S. will decline by 4%. Improving our market shares, growing our U.S. retail and nicotine pouch businesses are expected to offset the volume declines in our core combustible categories. For 2026, we expect the EBIT margin before special items to be in the range of 13% to 14.5% compared with the 14.9% in 2025. The expectation reflects that 2026 will be a year of stabilization and where we will continue investing to facilitate our long-term ambitions in Focus2030. Pricing is not expected to fully offset the impact from cost increases, changes in product and market mix as well as our increased promotional activities to protect and improve our market share positions. On a more technical note, an increase in the amortization of trademarks of approximately 1 percentage point on the EBIT margin before special items is expected to be largely offset by an expected higher income from certain duty refunds. The increase in amortization reflects the group's new strategic direction with stronger focus on power brands, implying that brands outside the scope of power brands going forward are classified with a finite useful lifetime. For 2026, the free cash flow before acquisitions is expected in the range of DKK 950 million to DKK 1.2 billion, reflecting the expectations for net sales and margins as well as the delayed payments from trade receivables, which Marianne talked to, impacting cash flow positively in 2026 with an expected effect on cash flow during the first half of this year. Now this concludes our presentation for today's call. I'll now hand the word back to the operator, and we are ready to take questions. Thank you.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] And now we're going to take our first question over the audio lines. And the question comes from the line of Niklas Ekman from DNB Carnegie.
Niklas Ekman: First question is regarding the guidance for 2026 because at the Capital Markets Day in late November, you talked about an ambition for a low single-digit growth of EBIT. And it looks now like even the upper end of the full year guidance suggests a decline and the low end, a quite significant decline. So can you elaborate a little bit on this? Is there anything that has worsened since the Capital Markets Day in November?
Marianne Bock: Thanks for the question. So when we talk about a low single-digit increase in EBITDA, it is over the strategy period. We are believing that 2026, which we also said at the Capital Markets Day is what we call a year of stabilization. We need not only to stabilize the internal disruption that we have seen in '25 but we also need to stabilize both our handmade cigar business and our machine-rolled cigar business. And that will entail investments into regaining market share but also in promotions. So we still believe that over the strategy period, we will see low single-digit growth in EBIT. But in '26, we could see a decline.
Niklas Ekman: Can I also ask about your view on margins and potential cost reductions and particularly given the quite steep margin decline we've seen in recent years. You've now have margins that have dropped below pre-COVID levels and the guidance for '26 suggests a further decline. Are you in a stage now where you are looking more actively at your cost base again and maybe at initiating more significant cost reductions in order to curb the margin decline? Or what's your view on that?
Marianne Bock: Yes. Thanks again, Niklas. So if we talk margins in '26, margins in '26 will also be impacted by mix, which means that our nicotine pouch business, we expect to grow but we are also seeing declines in our fine-cut business that has very high margins. When we talk about cost programs, we announced at the Capital Markets Day a cost program of DKK 200 million over the coming years. We are, as we speak, executing on these cost programs. We have full plans in place for those DKK 200 million, and we will see that coming in, during '26 and also '27. I would also say that if we see markets are worsening compared to our expectations, we will, of course, look at our cost levels.
Niklas Ekman: Okay. Very clear. I'm also curious, when I look through the report, you used to talk a lot about the growth enablers. And now you talk more specifically about next-generation products and the retail stores. Is this a definition that you have removed? And is this because you don't -- you no longer see the international handmade business as a major growth driver?
Niels Frederiksen: Yes, it's a good question, Niklas. I think that with the new strategy, you can say that retail expansion and nicotine pouches still play a central role. But the growth in international handmade cigars is still important to us, but we have prioritized doing well in handmade cigars in the U.S. more. So referring to the growth enablers as we originally defined them makes less sense. We now want to be more focused on stabilizing earnings in the machine-rolled cigars, smoking tobacco, growing the handmade with a focus on the U.S. and growing nicotine pouches. So we will try to articulate the degree to which we succeed with these things in a different way than referring to the growth enablers.
Niklas Ekman: Very clear. And just a final question. Am I right to assume that buybacks are quite unlikely in '26. When I look at your leverage ratio and your aim to get net debt below 2.5x EBITDA, I guess the only way to get there is if you stick to dividends and not buybacks. So buybacks are unlikely in '26. Is that a right assumption?
Marianne Bock: I think the short answer is yes.
Operator: Now we are going take our next question, and the question comes from the line of Sebastian Grave from Nordea.
Peter Grave: I apologize for those being broadly in the same line of Niklas. But I'll start off with a question on the margin here. So for the guidance of '26, you're guiding for quite steep margin declines compared to '25, even from a fairly low starting point in '25. And I know you talked about increased investments in market shares. But I mean, on the flip side, I would assume that you should see some tailwind from Mac Baren synergies. There should also be some SAP efficiencies and cost takeouts as highlighted in the Capital Markets Day. So at least in my view, it looks like underlying the margin pressure here is way more pronounced than what is -- we can see from the highlighted numbers here. So could you maybe help me understand how this works and how exactly this aligns with your articulated ambitions of protecting earnings in the short term?
Marianne Bock: Yes. Yes. Let me start out, Sebastian. And first of all, thank you for asking questions, and then Niels can also elaborate. But if you look at our guidance range, both when we look at top line and also margins, it is quite wide ranges if you compare to our business. And it is a signal of uncertainty on our total markets, how they're going to develop but also uncertainties in the external world. So we are anticipating a slight decline in margins in '26 due to the reasons that I mentioned to Niklas. We are on track on the synergies for Mac Baren. You talk about SAP synergies. There will also come synergies in on the SAP implementation. But as we are still rolling out, we're focusing on that rather than executing on those synergies for now.
Niels Frederiksen: Yes. I can add, Sebastian. I think when you look at Europe and machine-rolled cigars, you have the area where you have a lot of mix of product and market. The thing that is, let's say, not new but is more sustained and we can also see it continuing into 2026 is the promotion pressure applied across all sales channels in the U.S. So even though we take price increases and we continue to have a high focus on that, margins are under pressure simply to stay competitive, both on a, let's say, a brand level to regular retail and on an online level competing in the U.S. So these are some of the key dynamics that are in play and which we are obviously working very closely to improve but that is what is reflecting the margin pressure that Marianne also referred to.
Peter Grave: Okay. So what I'm hearing you saying, Niels, is that you are in a difficult consumer environment in a structurally declining category with fierce competition. And hence, is there any reason to believe that invest in these currently elevated investments in market shares that they should taper off in the near term, i.e., in '27, '28?
Niels Frederiksen: Yes. I think that the way to think about this is that market conditions have intensified, if I can put it like that. And our strategy aims at protecting and enhancing market shares, and that comes with a higher promotion pressure. Our job over time is to let's say, improve or lower that promotion pressure and still do well on market shares but it requires the market conditions to improve. So you can see the combination of total market declines and the -- let's call it, the fight for market share is what is putting the pressure on the market. And we have, of course, an expectation that over time, that will normalize. We've not seen promotion pressure like this and downtrading on this for some time.
Peter Grave: Okay. That is fair. And my last question is going back to the ambitions of harvesting some DKK 200 million efficiency gains as you talked about in the I understand that some of these ambitions have already translated to initiatives but can you maybe help explaining how much of the DKK 200 million is already reflected in the '26 guidance and how much we should expect beyond that?
Marianne Bock: Yes. So I would -- for the '26, I would think it in the level of around DKK 100 million.
Peter Grave: Okay. Okay. So half of the efficiency gains...
Marianne Bock: Sorry, Sebastian, then going into '27, we'll be closer to DKK 200 million but probably not fully, and we'll see the last part coming in, in '28.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] And we're going to take our next question on the audio line. And it comes from the line of Damian McNeela from Deutsche Numis.
Damian McNeela: The first one is on Canada and Australia because I think in the press release last night, you called out challenging conditions there and the impact that, that's had on the business. You did mention in the presentation. Can you talk a little bit about what's happening in those markets and what the outlook for this year is, please? That's my first question.
Niels Frederiksen: Thank you, Damian. And if I start with Australia, for those that follow the industry closely, it's maybe no surprise that we have seen an explosion in illicit trade. So a lot of tobacco companies, including ours, have seen earnings decline by quite a bit in Australia. And this is, let's say, increased for us in the sense that we had because of regulatory changes, a relatively higher sales in 2024 than in 2025. So the net impact of Australia on our profitability is quite distinct. So Australia is very much about a total market that is going illicit. And we are not losing market share, but basically losing volume simply because the legitimate market is lower, and it's a high profit market as we debate that will be discussed. For Canada, the situation is a little different. Also here, our market share position is strong and broadly unchanged. But in Canada, there is a -- from time to time, a larger sales into the Indian districts and the government have restricted some of those licenses they issue for selling in Indian districts, and that has affected our sales in Canada in 2025. So those are the 2 main explanations around Canada and Australia and them being among our highest margin markets does affect the average margin and total costs.
Damian McNeela: Yes. And just as a follow-up on that Canada point, that's likely to remain the case for the medium term, is it?
Niels Frederiksen: It's been -- over the years, this has been an on and off issue. So there's nothing wrong with selling in the Indian districts but they need licenses and sometimes the government takes it away from them and then a period passes and they get reinstated. So we are still of the view that they may come back but there's no guarantees around it.
Damian McNeela: Yes. And so the guidance assumes no return for those...
Niels Frederiksen: Yes. Yes.
Damian McNeela: Yes. Okay. And then in MRC Europe, it looks like margins have stabilized, but market share losses have continued. I was just wondering whether you could sort of call out some of the competitive dynamics in your -- a couple of the bigger markets that you operate in. Just to give us a sense of how the business is performing now that the sort of ERP system is up and running and fully implemented?
Niels Frederiksen: Yes. Let me try to give a few examples. So 2 of the key markets in our strategy is France and Spain. And as we have been resolving the inventory availability issues up until the end of 2025, we are seeing that market share is responding positively into 2026 but it's also us recovering from a low level. So we are still saying we have to be patient around how fast we can regain market share into 2026. But at least in these 2 markets, you can say that we have inventory availability back to where we would like to have it. When you look at other key markets in Europe, the situation is a little different. We have markets like the U.K. where there is a higher decline rate of machine-rolled cigars, and there's also a shift from regular machine-rolled cigars where we are strong to increasingly small cigars where we are competing up against some of the larger tobacco companies. So even though those categories grow, the mix in margin become again a net negative. When you then look to the Central European markets of Benelux and Germany. Here, we are, again, still concentrating on getting customer service levels back to where they need to be. And also here, you have in certain markets, this new dynamic of consumers shifting between what we call mainstream small cigars and little cigars, which are also cigars but sold at a lower price and typically in 10-pack cigarette type packaging formats. So it's -- what I'm really saying is it's quite a complicated picture when you look across the markets. What's important to remember is we have really strong market positions in many of these places, France, Spain, Benelux, U.K., and that's what we're trying to leverage to get the market share back.
Marianne Bock: And then you were also asking about the competitive situation. And here, we are seeing -- which we've also seen over the years that our competitors are reluctant to take the same level of price increases, which we think is necessary to cover both volume decline and cost increases.
Damian McNeela: Okay. So that hasn't changed at all.
Marianne Bock: No.
Niels Frederiksen: No.
Damian McNeela: No. Okay. And then just on -- I guess this is a slightly more philosophical one. You've changed guidance from EBITDA to EBIT margins. I was just wondering if there was anything behind that decision to do that.
Torben Sand: Yes, maybe I can answer that. First of all, we believe also now where we have a more distinct and clear focus on return on invested capital, it goes more in line with giving a guidance on EBIT. Secondly, the EBIT level also includes what we have seen in the past few years, increased investments and therefore, depreciation in especially our retail business. And then we have also noticed from kind of studies we have made with the market that it's a more common practice to guide on the EBIT level. So that's the key reasons for us changing that.
Damian McNeela: Yes. Okay. That's clear. And then perhaps if I may, one last one, just on the XQS brand. Can you just sort of give a sense of the areas of focus for growth? I mean, obviously, Sweden is pretty strong already. Do you see increased investment behind the brand through the course of '26?
Niels Frederiksen: We are seeing increased investments behind the brand, Damian. If you look at the geography, we talk a lot about Sweden. We talk a lot about the U.K., which are 2 important markets for us but we also consider, let's say, Scandinavia at large, and we are opening a new subsidiary in Norway later in the year. They will, of course, also include nicotine pouches in their portfolio. Finland is also in the focus area and certain Eastern European countries. So we are focusing on the European geography to build momentum also outside of Sweden.
Operator: Thank you. Dear speakers, I have no further questions. Please continue.
Torben Sand: Okay. Yes. Thank you. And I was simply just going to close off the call now. Thank you for listening in. Thank you for the questions. And yes, we will meet again in May after our first quarter results. Thank you, and have a good day.
Operator: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.