5-Year Free Cash Flow Projections
| Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue | $84.4B | $88.7B | $91.6B | $93.8B | $96.6B |
| EBIT | $3.0B | $3.2B | $3.3B | $3.3B | $3.4B |
| Tax | $729M | $766M | $791M | $810M | $835M |
| NOPAT | $2.3B | $2.4B | $2.5B | $2.5B | $2.6B |
| + Depreciation | $976M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.1B |
| - Capex | $754M | $793M | $819M | $838M | $863M |
| - Δ NWC | $103M | $143M | $97M | $73M | $94M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.4B | $2.5B | $2.6B | $2.7B | $2.8B |
| Discount Factor | 0.941 | 0.885 | 0.833 | 0.784 | 0.738 |
| Present Value | $2.2B | $2.2B | $2.2B | $2.1B | $2.0B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 4.27% | $200.32 | $227.02 | $222.65 | $218.37 | $214.20 |
| 5.27% | $130.79 | $156.15 | $192.65 | $218.37 | $214.20 |
| 6.27% | $94.09 | $107.84 | $125.78 | $150.19 | $185.34 |
| 7.27% | $71.53 | $80.01 | $90.47 | $103.71 | $120.99 |
| 8.27% | $56.32 | $62.00 | $68.76 | $76.93 | $87.01 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers
Growth Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue Growth3.77%
Year 2 Revenue Growth5.08%
Year 3 Revenue Growth3.27%
Year 4 Revenue Growth2.39%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
EBIT Margin3.55%
Tax Rate24.31%
Capex / Revenue0.89%
NWC / Revenue3.34%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 18x EV/EBITDA (S&P 500: 22x P/E)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.