10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $960M | $1.4B | $1.9B | $2.2B | $2.5B |
| EBIT | $712M | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.7B | $1.9B |
| Tax | $150M | $224M | $295M | $352M | $396M |
| NOPAT | $562M | $837M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| + Depreciation | $32M | $48M | $63M | $75M | $85M |
| - Capex | $33M | $50M | $66M | $78M | $88M |
| - Δ NWC | $17M | $26M | $21M | $17M | $5M |
| Free Cash Flow | $544M | $809M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| Discount Factor | 0.920 | 0.779 | 0.660 | 0.559 | 0.435 |
| Present Value | $500M | $630M | $712M | $722M | $640M |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 1.00% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% |
|---|
| 6.67% | $311.32 | $321.49 | $333.84 | $349.15 | $368.63 |
| 7.67% | $273.99 | $280.65 | $288.49 | $297.84 | $309.19 |
| 8.67% | $244.46 | $249.05 | $254.32 | $260.45 | $267.66 |
| 9.67% | $220.30 | $223.58 | $227.28 | $231.50 | $236.36 |
| 10.67% | $200.04 | $202.45 | $205.14 | $208.16 | $211.58 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Energy Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth20.28%
Year 3 Revenue Growth21.39%
Year 5 Revenue Growth12.16%
Year 7 Revenue Growth8.09%
Year 10 Revenue Growth2.00%
Terminal Growth Rate2.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin74.19%
Tax Rate21.13%
Historical Capex / Rev3.48%
NWC / Revenue10.36%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 14x EV/EBITDA (Energy sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.