TPL
Earnings in 1 day · May 6, 2026 · After close
Signal
Leaning Bearish1
Price
1
Move+0.04%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume0.2× avgLight volume
Technical
1
RSIRSI 44Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
432.83
Open
429.95
Day Range423.44 – 434.41
423.44
434.41
52W Range269.23 – 547.20
269.23
547.20
59% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
557.6K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
62.0x
Premium valuation
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.00%
Beta
0.88
Market-like
Performance
1D
-0.18%
5D
-0.74%
1M
-3.57%
3M
+24.93%
6M
+42.00%
YTD
+50.70%
1Y
-1.75%
Best: YTD (+50.70%)Worst: 1M (-3.57%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +13% YoY · 100% gross margin
Valuation
EXPENSIVE
P/E 62x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 4.4 · FCF $7.05/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$29.84B
Revenue TTM$798.19M
Net Income TTM$481.38M
Free Cash Flow$486.38M
Gross Margin100.0%
Net Margin60.3%
Operating Margin74.2%
Return on Equity36.2%
Return on Assets29.7%
Debt / Equity0.02
Current Ratio4.40
EPS TTM$6.98
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Permian Basin rig count and completion activity (drives royalty volumes and water demand)

WTI crude oil prices (directly impacts royalty revenue per barrel and operator drilling economics)

Water services revenue per barrel and utilization rates (higher-margin than royalties)

Land sale transactions and per-acre pricing (lumpy but high-margin events)

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Revenue directly tied to Permian drilling activity, which correlates with oil prices, industrial demand, and energy capex cycles. During downturns (2020), operators slash drilling budgets, reducing royalty volumes and water demand. However, royalty model provides downside protection vs E&P operators since TPL has no drilling costs.

Interest Rates

Moderate sensitivity through two channels: (1) Higher rates reduce Permian operator access to capital, potentially slowing drilling activity and water demand; (2) As a high-multiple, cash-generative stock (38.6x P/S), TPL trades like a bond proxy - rising 10-year yields compress valuation multiples despite minimal debt (0.01 D/E). The 1.5% FCF yield makes it vulnerable to rate-driven multiple compression.

Key Risks

Energy transition and peak oil demand reducing long-term Permian drilling activity and stranding royalty assets

Permian Basin depletion rates (30-50% annual decline curves) requiring continuous drilling to maintain production volumes

Water recycling technology improvements reducing demand for sourced water services

Investor Profile

growth - Investors pay 38.6x P/S for leveraged exposure to Permian growth without E&P operational risk. The 89.9% gross margin and 38.1% ROE attract growth investors seeking high-quality energy exposure. Minimal dividend (1.5% FCF yield) indicates focus on capital appreciation rather than income.

Watch on Earnings
Permian Basin horizontal rig count (Baker Hughes weekly data)WTI crude oil spot price and forward curve (impacts operator drilling economics)TPL royalty production volumes (BOE/day) and per-BOE realization ratesWater services revenue per barrel and total water volumes sold
Health Radar
4 strong1 watch1 concern
72/100
Liquidity
4.40Strong
Leverage
0.02Strong
Coverage
0.0xConcern
ROE
36.2%Strong
ROIC
30.1%Strong
Cash
$145MWatch
ANALYST COVERAGE5 analysts
HOLD
+47.6%upside to target
Buy
360%
Hold
120%
Sell
120%
3 Buy (60%)1 Hold (20%)1 Sell (20%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
1 of 5 signals bullish
3/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 44 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 4.40 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings Report · After CloseMay 6, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 3, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 20, 2026
In 107 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

PullbackGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 32.9%

-9.3% vs SMA 50 · +20.5% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI44.1
Momentum fading
MACD-7.45
Below zero — bearish pulse · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$547.2+26.4%
EMA 50
$443.9+2.5%
Current
$433.0
EMA 200
$389.8-10.0%
52W Low
$269.2-37.8%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$269.259th %ile$547.2
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:2
Dist days:4
Edge:+2 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)443K
Recent Vol (5D)
530K+20%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 1 analyst
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$671.1M
$671.1M$671.1M
$19.46
Low1
FY2024
$705.0M
$705.0M$705.0M
+5.1%$6.56-66.3%
Low1
FY2025
$794.0M
$794.0M$794.0M
+12.6%$6.98+6.5%
Low1
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryTPL
Last 8Q
-2.9%avg beat
Beat 2 of 8 quartersMissed 4 Estimates rising
+9%
Q2'24
-7%
Q3'24
-14%
Q4'24
+6%
Q1'25
Q2'25
-8%
Q3'25
-8%
Q4'25
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
6 Buys/0 SellsNet Buying
NET BUYERS$10K bought · $0 sold · 30d window
Horizon Kinetics As…10 Percent Own…
$439
May 4
BUY
Horizon Kinetics As…10 Percent Own…
$433
May 1
BUY
Horizon Kinetics As…10 Percent Own…
$437
Apr 30
BUY
Horizon Kinetics As…10 Percent Own…
$436
Apr 29
BUY
Horizon Kinetics As…10 Percent Own…
$436
Apr 28
BUY
Horizon Kinetics As…10 Percent Own…
$436
Apr 27
BUY
Financials
Dividends0.51% yield
3 yrs of payments
Annual Yield0.51%
Quarterly Div.$0.6000
Est. Annual / Share$2.40
FrequencyQuarterly
Q3'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
SCHWARTZ INVESTMENT COUNSEL INC
411K
2
MAD RIVER INVESTORS
285K
3
York GP, Ltd.
269K
4
Nuveen, LLC
161K
5
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings, Inc.
124K
6
LAWSON KROEKER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC/NE
113K
7
Hodges Capital Management Inc.
105K
8
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
99K
News & Activity

TPL News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

texas pacific land trust was created in 1888 as a result of a reorganization of the texas and pacific railway company following receivership. holders of texas and pacific railway company bonds received 3.5 million acres of land in texas which had been earned by the railroad and pledged as security against bonds. the bondholders created the trust and converted bonds to shares of proprietary interest in the trust. the trust was created to manage and sell the land. today the trust is one of the largest landowners in texas with around 888,333 acres located in eighteen different counties. texas pacific land trust derives revenue from all avenues of managing the land, i.e. oil and gas royalties, grazing leases, easements, sundry and specialty leases, and land sales. the trust has a perpetual oil and gas royalty interest in some 459,200 acres.

CEO
Tyler Glover
Robert A. CrainExecutive Vice President of Texas Pacific Water Resources LLC
Shawn AminiVice President of Finance & Investor Relations
Tyler GloverPresident, Chief Executive Officer & Trustee
PeersEnergy(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
TPL
$433.02-0.18%$29.8B62.0+1308.6%6030.8%1500
$154.99+0.68%$639.2B1497
$193.37+0.90%$383.8B34.61490
$124.29+1.40%$152.2B20.9+751.1%1503
$76.82-0.17%$92.2B33.0+1377.7%2190.8%1497
$56.28-2.27%$83.2B25.2-159.8%1515
$142.50+1.91%$75.9B15.3-346.9%2206.8%1500
Sector avg+0.32%31.8+586.1%3476.1%1500