iShares MSCI Turkey ETF
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iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (NASDAQ: TUR - Get Free Report) saw unusually large options trading on Friday. Stock investors purchased 6,138 call options on the company. This represents an increase of approximately 1,446% compared to the average volume of 397 call options. iShares MSCI Turkey ETF Trading Down 0.3% Shares of NASDAQ TUR opened at $33.50
The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF offers broad exposure to Turkish equities, covering most of the free float-adjusted market cap. Key catalysts for TUR include ongoing monetary easing, benefiting industrials and potentially improving bank profitability as net interest income recovers. Given high valuation and persistent macro risks, I rate TUR as HOLD, awaiting a more attractive entry point despite positive economic momentum.
The ratings agency said Friday it lifted the country's long-term foreign currency sovereign-credit ratings and local currency issuer ratings to Ba3 from B1.
iShares MSCI Turkey ETF offers diversified exposure to Turkey's high-growth sectors—industrials, financials, and consumer defensives—positioning it for potential upside amid economic reforms. Risks like currency depreciation, high inflation, and political instability remain significant and could undermine returns for USD-based investors. TUR's lower expense ratio and broader diversification make it more appealing than ITKY, but concentrated holdings and low liquidity add to the risk.
A surprise Israeli strike on Iran sent oil prices soaring. This may prompt sharp reactions in country ETFs such as ENOR (upside) and INDY (downside).
The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF faces significant challenges, including a volatile Lira, high inflation, and recent political instability affecting market confidence. Inflation in Türkiye has been a major issue, reaching 85% YoY in 2022, but has shown signs of stabilizing with key interest rates falling. A recent 12% plunge in TUR's price was triggered by high-profile arrests, causing market uncertainty and potential continued sell-offs.
Since December 2023, the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF has experienced a volatile journey while eventually underperforming global markets. Looking ahead, we feel quite ambiguous about TUR's prospects as the macroeconomic backdrop, the valuation picture, and the technicals all provide a conflicting image. Turkey's GDP prospects look underwhelming, but inflation appears to be trending lower, and the central bank has just kickstarted a movement of interest rate cuts that could persist through this year.
US equities have outperformed the rest of the world for a long time now. While the US is up 58% on a total return basis during the current bull market, the rest of the world is up 13.5 percentage points less at +44.5%. Looking at the international dividend ETF over a longer time frame, over the last five years, it's up 20.6% in price and more than double that on a total return basis.
iShares MSCI Turkey ETF invests in Turkish equities with a high expense ratio of 0.59%. Despite the high expense ratio, the fund remains popular for those speculating on Turkish stocks, with $223 million in assets. TUR saw a significant increase of over 100% on a total return basis from late 2022 to present, after a period of stagnation.
International economies have returned much lesser than the U.S. market. Still, these country ETFs gained more than 10% in the past three months.
TUR has continued its outperformance into 2024. Fundamentally, there's been plenty of support for this rally. And with valuations still undemanding, there might be more to come.
April became the worst month of 2024 for Wall Street with the key equity gauges retreating at least by 3%.
TUR On A Tear Despite Suffocating Inflation
ETFs in the technology sector, particularly semiconductor stocks, have performed well in early 2024.
The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF has underperformed global markets and emerging market peers, making it a potential mean-reversion trade. TUR's valuations are cheap, with a low P/E ratio compared to other ETFs. However in local terms, Turkish equities have already seen strong appreciation this year, and now local bank deposits have become more attractive.
Country Turkey's ETF as been hogging investors' attention this Thanksgiving due to upbeat prospects.
Turkish stocks slumped on Wednesday, with the speed of the declines resulting in two trading halts, as investors worried about the country's relationship with Israel and the upcoming interest rate decision by the central bank due Thursday.
iShares MSCI Turkey ETF has performed well since July, making it an interesting satellite equity play. TUR provides targeted access to Turkish stocks and is ideal for investors looking for exposure to the largest Turkish companies. Despite political risks, the ETF presents a compelling contrarian opportunity with potential for growth if inflation is controlled.
For investors seeking momentum, IShares MSCI Turkey ETF TUR is probably on radar. The fund just hit a 52-week high and is up 66.64% from its 52-week low price of $23.86/share.
Annual inflation recorded another strong increase in September due to a broad-based deterioration in price dynamics while the rise in energy prices and continuing pressure in services is attracting attention. Core inflation (CPI-C) came in at 5.3% month-on-month, rising to 68.9% on an annual basis.