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Anders Edholm: Good morning, and welcome to this presentation of SCA's 2025 Third Quarter Results. With me here today, I have President and CEO, Ulf Larsson; and CFO, Andreas Ewertz, to go through the results and take your questions. Over to you, Ulf.
Ulf Larsson: Thank you, Anders. And also from my side, a good morning. Happy to present results for the third quarter '25. So -- and when I summarize the quarter, we can state that SCA continued to deliver a solid result in a rather challenging environment. Our high degree of self-sufficiency in strategic areas continued to be an important factor to mitigate higher costs, not the least related to wood raw materials. Our EBITDA reached SEK 1.64 billion and by that, an EBITDA margin of 33% for the third quarter. In Q3 '25, we had substantially lower prices in the Pulp segment in comparison with the same period last year. Our planned maintenance stops in pulp and containerboard were also considerably more extensive compared to the same quarter last year. Delivery volumes in the Containerboard segment increased this year compared with the same quarter last year, driven by the continued ramp-up of our Obbola containerboard mill. The uncertain market situation, mainly dominated by changing tariffs continues to affect market conditions. The forest industry in general is momentarily challenged by a weaker -- with a market with soft underlying demand in many product areas. Turning over to some financial KPIs for the third quarter '25. As already mentioned, our EBITDA reached SEK 1.64 billion in the quarter, which corresponds to a 33% EBITDA margin and a 22% EBIT margin. Our industrial return on capital employed came out just over 6%, counted for the last 12 months. And the leverage was at 1.7x with our -- while our net debt to equity reached 11.2%. I will now make some comments for each segment, starting with Forest. Higher harvesting levels from our own forest have not the least contributed to stable supply of wood raw materials to our industries during this period. We have seen a continuous long-term trend of increasing prices for both pulpwood and sawlogs as can be seen in the graph on the bottom left. Regarding pulpwood, we have now passed the peak, I guess, and the prices have started to come down during this quarter. Demand for sawlogs continues to be high, especially for spruce logs. When one compares Q3 '25 with Q3 '24, sales were up 14%, while EBITDA was up 17%, mainly due to higher prices for wood raw materials. Turning over to Wood. In general, we still have a slow underlying market for solid wood products. As said before, we have noted signs of improvement in the repair and remodeling segment this year in comparison with the last year, but the uncertainty in general economic development continues to affect the market recovery negatively. Stock levels remain on the high side among producers for pine, but are on normal levels for spruce. Stock levels at customers continue to be on the low side. The volumes in both production and deliveries were good for SCA during the quarter, resulting in a close to unchanged stock level of sawn goods. The price for solid wood products decreased by 5% in the third quarter of '25 in comparison with the second quarter of '25. This development is in line with what I said when I presented the report for the second quarter. As expected, the cost for sawlogs has increased from the second to the third quarter, and we also expect them to continue to increase going into the fourth quarter. Sales were in line with the same quarter last year. EBITDA margin decreased from 19% to 15% due to higher raw material costs and a negative currency effect. Today's stock level of solid wood products in Sweden and Finland is described at the top left on this slide and is shown in relation to the average for the last 5 years. As mentioned earlier, we note that the inventory level is on the high side, especially for pine, while the SCA level is rather normal. As can be seen in the diagram to the bottom left, the Swedish and Finnish sawmills production has been on a normal level during the first 8 months of '25. In the diagram to the top right, we can note that the price decreased during the third quarter. The decrease in pine has been larger in comparison with the spruce products. Going into the next quarter, I estimate that prices on average again will decrease by up to 5%, somewhat more for pine and somewhat less for spruce. And this is driven by the momentarily high availability of pine products. In the construction sector, we can conclude that start of new buildings continues to be low. As said before, uncertainties are still present, but we see improved consumption in the repair and remodeling sector. The level of duties now put in place on wood products from Canada delivered to U.S., about 45% in comparison to the level for wood products from European Union, delivered to the U.S. about 10% has strengthened the competitiveness for EU producers in comparison with Canadian producers. And I guess it's likely that the price level in U.S. will increase when stock levels are coming down from today's high levels. So over to pulp. When comparing Q3 '25 with Q3 '24, sales were down 21%, mainly due to lower prices, a lower delivery volume and a negative currency effect. EBITDA was down 57%, compared to last year, mainly due to lower prices, a negative currency effect and higher cost for wood raw materials. The cost for the planned maintenance stop was SEK 83 million this quarter compared to SEK 35 million in Q3 '24. Global demand for pulp was at a healthy level during the first quarter of '25. During the second quarter, the market changed with reduced demand and prices came under pressure, much due to uncertainty related to U.S. tariffs. During the third quarter, prices on NBSK pulp were stable at low levels. On the demand side, we saw increased activity in China during the quarter. The weakening of the U.S. dollar in relation to the Swedish krona, which started already in Q1, continued to have a negative impact on the pricing in SEK also in Q3. Tariffs on NBSK pulp from the European Union to the U.S. were removed during the third quarter, and this allows us to maintain a competitive offering in the U.S. Looking at CTMP, prices have been unchanged in Asia at low levels and have decreased slowly in Europe during the third quarter. Inventories of softwood and CTMP have been increasing in July and August, as you can see in the diagram and are now on the high level. Hardwood inventories on the contrary were stable during the third quarter. Moving over to Containerboard. Sales were up 10% in Q3 in comparison with the same period last year, driven by higher delivery volumes and higher prices, somewhat mitigated by a negative currency effect. EBITDA was down by 39%, very much driven by long planned maintenance stop with a cost of SEK 204 million versus SEK 87 million in Q3 2024. Higher costs for wood raw materials and a negative currency effect also had an impact. We have seen a softer box demand during the last quarter, but still with a positive development on a year-to-date basis. The retail business remains on a positive driver. On the other side, we continue to see a weak European manufacturing industry, which, for the moment, drives the demand in a negative direction. After a stable first half of the year of European demand of containerboard has started to decrease in Q3, due to the current turbulent macro environment, it's difficult to have a view on the long-term demand. In Q3, we have seen additional supply coming on stream with the vast majority coming in testliner. We do not expect further capacity increases in Q4, except from the ramp-up effect of newly started machines. Kraftliner inventories remain above average level in Q3, as you can see in the graph. During Q3, the availability of OCC has been good, driven by the lower demand in the quarter, which in its turn has led to decreasing prices of OCC. Moving into Q4, we see the availability of OCC to be stable and expect prices to be more or less unchanged. Prices for brown kraftliner in Central Europe has during Q3 decreased with EUR 20 per tonne, driven mainly by slow demand and reduced prices of OCC. White kraftliner has remained stable. Finally, I will say some words about renewable energy. In this area, we have had a weaker quarter compared to the same period last year, mainly due to lower prices in wind power and solid biofuels. Continued improvements in ramping up Gothenburg biorefinery are partly compensating for this. The market for solid biofuels in Northern Sweden continues to be weak due to warm weather and low electricity prices. This factor increases our export share and by that, reduced margin. For liquid biofuels, we have seen higher margins compared to previous quarters. The main reasons are tighter supply due to maintenance stops in biorefineries, European countries implementing RED III and better control mechanism within the EU regarding imported feedstock. We expect market volatility in renewable fuels to remain high as Europe ramps up the blending mandates both from -- both in HVO and SAF. Electricity prices were low during the quarter, which impacted on our wind business negatively, but it is good, of course, for SCA as a net buyer of electricity. SCA's land lease business is stable at 9.7 terawatt hours, which is equal to 20% of installed capacity of wind power in Sweden. Installed capacity on our land is expected to reach 10.5 terawatt hours by the end of the year. And by that, I hand over to you, Andreas.
Andreas Ewertz: Thank you, Ulf, and good morning, everybody. I'll start off with the income statement for the third quarter. Net sales decreased 5% to SEK 5 billion, driven by negative currency effects and lower prices, which was partly offset by higher delivery volumes. EBITDA decreased 18% to SEK 1.6 billion, driven by negative currency effects, lower prices and higher costs for planned maintenance stops. EBIT decreased to SEK 1.1 billion and financial items totaled minus SEK 103 million. With an effective tax rate of just below 20%, bringing net profit to SEK 0.8 billion or SEK 1.19 per share. On the next slide, we have the financial development by segment and starting with the Forest segment to the left. Net sales decreased to SEK 2.4 billion, driven by lower delivery volumes compared to the previous quarter due to several planned maintenance stop at SCA's industries. EBITDA decreased to SEK 912 million due to seasonally lower harvest from SCA's own forest. In wood, prices decreased compared to previous quarter, while the cost for sawlogs continued to increase. Net sales decreased to SEK 1.5 billion, driven by lower delivery volumes and lower prices compared to the previous quarter. EBITDA decreased to SEK 232 million, corresponding to a margin of 15%. In pulp, net sales decreased to SEK 1.65 billion, driven by lower delivery volumes and lower prices. EBITDA decreased to SEK 242 million, corresponding to a margin of 15%. Higher costs for planned maintenance stops and lower prices were offset by lower costs. We had lower energy and raw material costs in the quarter, and Q3 is also a low-cost quarter for indirect costs in all segments, which had a positive impact. In Containerboard, net sales decreased to SEK 1.8 billion and EBITDA decreased to SEK 194 million, corresponding to a margin of 11%. Result was negatively impacted by planned maintenance stops in both Munksund and Obbola of SEK 204 million. The market for renewable energy continued to be weak. EBITDA decreased compared to previous quarter and amounted to SEK 79 million, corresponding to a margin of 21%. The decrease was mainly driven by lower deliveries of solid biofuels. On the next slide, we have the sales bridge between Q3 last year and Q3 this year. Prices decreased 2%, driven by lower pulp prices. Volumes increased 1%, driven by higher volumes in containerboard, which was also offset by lower volumes in pulp. And lastly, currency had a negative impact of 4%, bringing net sales to SEK 5 billion. Moving on to EBITDA bridge and starting to the left. Price/mix had a negative impact of SEK 99 million and higher volumes had a positive impact of SEK 14 million. Higher costs for mainly wood raw materials had a negative impact of SEK 57 million, which was mitigated by our highest degree of self-sufficiency. We had a positive impact from energy of SEK 37 million and a negative impact of currency of SEK 169 million. This was impacted by higher costs for planned maintenance stops. And in total, EBITDA decreased to SEK 1.6 billion, corresponding to a margin of 33%. Looking at the cash flow. Operating cash flow increased to SEK 1.1 billion for the quarter, and SEK 2.5 billion for the first 9 months. And as you know, other operating cash flow relates mostly to working capital currency hedges and should be seen together with changes in working capital. Looking at the balance sheet. The value of the forest asset totaled SEK 108 billion. Working capital decreased compared to previous quarter and totaled SEK 5.6 billion. Capital employed totaled SEK 160 billion and net debt decreased compared to the previous quarter to SEK 11.7 billion. And we have now almost finalized our large ongoing investment projects. Equity totaled SEK 104 billion and net debt to equity was 11%. Thank you. With that, I'll hand back to you, Ulf.
Ulf Larsson: So thank you, Andreas. And well, just to summarize, I mean, as I said, we have continued to deliver a solid result in a rather challenging environment. . I guess the market has bottomed in more or less all areas except from solid wood products. On the other side, we will see a cost pressure coming in our solid wood business, wider price for pulpwood has now stabilized and are on its way down, I would say. In pulp and kraftliner, I guess, the market is going sideways now, and we are 100% focused on what we can have an impact on ourselves, which is meaning that we are focusing on the ramp-up of our big projects. And they are going very well -- did go very well during the third quarter. So by that, I think that we open up for some questions.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] And we will now take our first question from Ioannis Masvoulas of Morgan Stanley.
Ioannis Masvoulas: I've got 3 questions, if I may. I'll take them one at a time. First on pulpwood costs. Given the small decline that you show in your slide deck for Q3 and the typical lag in your business, what should we expect for cost development in your industries in Q4 this year and also Q1 2026?
Ulf Larsson: You asked about pulpwood. And as I said, I mean, we see that now that prices for pulpwood is coming down in the market. But as you say, we have a lagging effect. And I could say that we have -- it's around 6 months or less. Andreas?
Andreas Ewertz: Yes. So in the fourth quarter, I mean, fairly flat, maybe we're talking about 1% decline in pulpwood prices. So fairly flat, while the cost for sawlogs will continue to increase a bit into Q4.
Ulf Larsson: And in the beginning of next year?
Andreas Ewertz: Then I think that pulpwood will slowly continue to decrease. But as I said, I would say, it's around 6 months of lag effect in the terms of sawlogs. I think they will start to peak also around maybe Q1, Q1 next year.
Ioannis Masvoulas: And then going back to pulp, looking at NBSK inventories on days of supply were pretty much at the top of the historical range, do you see the recent temporary curtailments among your peers to help rebalance the market in the short term? Or do we need to see more aggressive supply response?
Ulf Larsson: It's hard to say, I mean, maybe I didn't say that, but I mean we are still at a very high operating rate in NBSK, and we should because we have a very low cash cost, of course. But on the other hand, we see announcements now from many areas where they have started to take curtailments. I guess also in the statistics that you see now, we haven't included the typical longer maintenance stops that we have had now during the autumn. So I guess that the inventory will come down. And as always, it's a question, it's a supply-demand issue. And I guess we will see a better balance, but I mean, underlying, we have to wait for an increase in consumption before we can say that we have a stronger market.
Ioannis Masvoulas: Understood. And then just last question for me on the FX hedging. Looking at your disclosure, you seem to have brought down your USD hedge ratios for the next 4 quarters. Is that a conscious decision to avoid locking in an unfavorable FX rate? And could these ratios come down further in the coming quarters if spot FX rates persist?
Andreas Ewertz: We use statistical model for our hedge strategy. So we have -- for the next 6 months, we hedge around 50% to 85% of our net exposure and then it goes down. But then it depends on statistically how favorable the currency is. So we use model and for the U.S. dollar currently in the low range of that while for euro, we are on the normal range.
Operator: And we'll now take our next question from Linus Larsson of SEB.
Linus Larsson: Couple of questions on use of funds. It seems to me that you have a very strong balance sheet. Cash flow is robust through the cycle. You're running at high operating rates, like you say, your competitiveness is strong. How do you look at buybacks in this context, given where your share price is trading and given your investment plans for the time being?
Ulf Larsson: If we start with the investment plan, as I said, we are just now 100% focused on ramping up what we have started, and we feel that we are doing that in a good way. As I've also said, I mean, just now, we sit on our hands. We will not start up new big projects. And I guess, as all other companies, we also try to -- yes, not do too many current investments because we have an uncertain market coming going forward, I mean, that's the position we have just now. And the question about buybacks, I mean, that is more question for the Board, honestly. So let's see. We are now focused on ramping up what we have started. And by that, as you said, we expect that we will increase our cash flow capacity substantially.
Linus Larsson: Yes. Yes. No, that's great. But I mean, principally, how does the Board look at buybacks? Is there like a principal view on whether or not buybacks is part of the toolbox?
Ulf Larsson: Again, that's a question for the Board. But as far as I understand, we have no principles in this matter. I think we have done since the split 2017, I mean, we have invested 20% of the net sales in the company every year. For us, that's a lot of money. For all companies, it's a lot of money. So we are more focused just now to realize the cash flow that we suppose -- that we will have from these ongoing investments, so that's our focus now.
Linus Larsson: Yes. No, that's clear. And just to finish off that, what's your CapEx guidance for 2025 and 2026, respectively?
Andreas Ewertz: If you look at CapEx for '25, I think that current CapEx will be around SEK 1.5 billion. We might have some spillover to next year, so SEK 1.4 billion, SEK 1.5 billion. And then in terms of strategic CapEx, also depending on timing of some payment, but around SEK 1.3 billion, SEK 1.4 billion. So maybe SEK 2.8 billion in total for current and strategic, but it depends on certain timing of certain payments. For next year, strategic CapEx will go down. We have some payments left in the ramp-ups, but strategic CapEx will come down. And then I would guess that current will be slightly higher than this year since we have some spillover from this year to next year.
Linus Larsson: But how much will the strategic CapEx go down? Is it SEK 0.5 billion or SEK 1 billion or around the backlog?
Andreas Ewertz: It depends on some timing, but I would guess we have a couple of hundred millions left on our current projects.
Operator: And we'll now take our next question from Charlie Muir-Sands of BNP Paribas.
Charlie Muir-Sands: I wanted to start on the round wood market. So you mentioned obviously log prices are high and if anything, still slightly moving up due to high demand. But equally, it sounds like the wood products market in general is still quite soft. So I'm just trying to understand, is this a demand that's for other uses? Or are you basically saying this is more of a supply issue for the market? And if so, is this just of a hangover from the spark beetle delivery from prior years? Or is there any other reason why we could expect some better balance coming back on the supply side soon? And then just on the pulpwood cost side, very helpful the detail you've given so far. But just in terms of the timing effects, the changes in pricing of pulpwood hit the forestry and then the industrial segment at the same time? Or is there a phasing effect whereby the P&L benefit on forest is reduced before the cost tailwind on the industrial segments come through or anything like that to be aware of.
Andreas Ewertz: Yes. So if you look at the pricing, I mean we base our internal prices of what the Forest division pays for its sourcing and a lot to buy on stumpage. So you buy the right to harvest. And then, I mean, you optimize the harvesting to try to have some larger areas to have efficient harvesting. So it can be vary. I mean, some of these -- what the harvest is couple of months. You bought it for some might be 3 months ago or 6 months ago. And then that average price is what the industry gets to pay. But the pricing is -- when the prices goes down, the industry will get a lower price, but then, of course, our Forest division will earn less money on their own harvest. But one day, what they source externally that they get paid for. And then the second question -- the first question was around the demand for sawlogs.
Ulf Larsson: The coming demand. I mean, as we see just now, we have, as you saw on the graph in Sweden and Finland, the production is still on a normal level, even if we know that the price -- log prices are very, very high. And profitability in the business is, in general, rather low. We feel rather confident with the profitability we have in our own Wood division. But I mean we -- up until today, we haven't seen any signs of decreasing log prices actually.
Andreas Ewertz: And also -- it's also difference between pine and spruce sawlog. On spruce sawlog, you have much lower supply compared to pine sawlog, sort of pricing and demand difference there.
Charlie Muir-Sands: And then just on the wood products side, you mentioned the relative competitive advantage for EU exporters to the U.S. now versus Canadian. Can you just talk about the relative profitability of your U.S. business compared with your European business today? How big an opportunity might this be?
Ulf Larsson: Yes. First, if we take the tariffs, I mean, as I said, the tariff just now going from Europe over to U.S. is 10%, and coming from Canada over to U.S., then the tariff is 45%. As it is just now, in U.S., the stock level is on the very high side. So, so far, we haven't seen any impact on the, let's say, the local price in U.S. But I guess when the inventory level is coming down, then, of course, customers, they have to start to buy and then they can buy some volume from Europe and they have to buy some volume from Canada. But then I guess that prices can in a short while, increased quite dramatically. We don't have a big volume for U.S. We do, let's say, 80,000 cubic meter per year. But again, it's a global market. So if we start to see better trade in U.S., I mean, that will, of course, have also an impact on the European market and also the Asian market and so on and so on. So we have to wait and see. But I mean, as it is just now, I guess, it's more a question of time. We will have a slow fourth quarter, as we always have. And I guess it will be rather slow also in the first quarter. But then I guess, in the beginning of the second quarter next year, then we might start to see something.
Charlie Muir-Sands: But Canadian volumes can't get displaced into other parts of the world or even coming into Europe to offset that benefit?
Ulf Larsson: Yes, not really. I mean, of course, you will see some Canadian volumes in China and you might -- I don't think you will see too much of it in Europe. Again, it's -- you have the distribution cost and many of those sawmills, they are located inland. And so it's also a question of distribution, inland distribution cost within in Canada so I guess if this remains, which you never know, I mean, then you probably will see further closures and capacity reductions. And honestly, I don't know really how the U.S. -- I mean, we know that U.S., they need a lot of solid wood products coming into U.S. So I guess it might be so that we see some further changes going forward now. Also when it comes to tariffs and things like that. So I mean, it's -- but all these -- I think we had a question before. But I mean, tariffs, we are not directly too much impacted by tariffs. We can handle that in a good way. But I guess that this discussion has created uncertainty globally. And that's the reason also why we have a rather slow demand in Asia in more or less all product areas. And so I mean that is the -- I guess the worst thing with tariffs is it is creating some kind of uncertainty in all areas and globally.
Operator: We'll now take our next question from Robin Santavirta of DNB.
Robin Santavirta: Thank you very much. Firstly, I have a question related to the Containerboard business. Looking at the delivery volumes now this year, they have been quite steady, but it seems still Obbola is not running at full capacity. And now you had the log maintenance shut. So could you give some guidelines on volume outlook for that segment in Q4 and early 2026? Should we expect a bit of a step change or more of a slow gradual ramp-up during the end of the year and next year?
Ulf Larsson: When it comes to Obbola, we have said that Obbola will produce 600,000 tonnes this year, and they will do so if nothing expected will happen in the fourth quarter. Then it is a tough market in kraftliner. So we have seen during the third quarter, increasing inventories in kraftliner. And so that's the case. And as you said, we also had a rather long maintenance stop in Q3. So that also had an impact on deliveries. But production-wise, Obbola will reach 600,000 tonnes next -- this year. And then the plan is to reach 700,000 tonnes next year.
Robin Santavirta: Okay. Okay. Can I ask about this EU deforestation regulation? How do you view that? Will that have any kind of impact for your businesses in Europe either way, what is your view?
Ulf Larsson: I mean, it has also created a lot of uncertainty. But I guess for us, we can manage EUDR, but of course, it would be an administrative burden, which we don't like. But we can handle it.
Robin Santavirta: But what about your competitors? Could it be a setup where some pulp had been imported from some countries or some paperboard that has been imported from Asia or Americas, they could end up in a bit of difficulty to do so in the future? Or will this impact trade flow at all in your view?
Ulf Larsson: Yes, it's very hard to predict. I mean, we have been working quite hard to find out a system which will not create a lot of administration. And I mean, typically, we are for free trade. I think that's good. And I think that EU in the long run, they will benefit from a free trade. We don't know what -- how this will be implemented in the trade up till today. So again, this is also another thing that really creates uncertainty. But the honest answer is we don't know how that will -- this will play out. The only thing we can do is to focus on our own ability to meet the requirements that might come.
Robin Santavirta: Yes, for sure, for sure. Follow-up question related to the pulp market. What is going on in the softwood pulp market? There's a lot of curtailments now during early autumn. Certainly, Finland, some in Sweden as well, I understand some in Canada as well. And historically, when you do that, you tighten up the market quite quickly. Now we're not seeing that. Is this a bit of a substitution into hardwood pulp? Is it some Chinese volumes that -- I mean, historically, they do not produce a lot of softwood pulp. Now I understand there is some production going on in China as well. So why is not the market tightening despite the quite significant production curtailments in the Northern Hemisphere?
Ulf Larsson: I guess the first thing is that the underlying demand is weak. So that's the first explanation. The second thing is substitution. I don't think that we will see more of substitution today than we did last year. I mean, it's not as easy as that. And we have always had a delta between hardwood and softwood prices. So I mean, if possible, I guess, it would have already been done. So I haven't heard anything -- no structural changes in that area. What we know is that a lot of capacity in pulp is -- will be built up in China. And that, of course, sooner or later, that will -- might have an impact. As it is just now, we are more considered about the CTMP volumes. And as we have understood, I mean, the board market is very weak. And while companies in Asia while they closed down the converting and stop producing boards, I mean, they still produce CTMP, and that will, of course, give a surplus in the market. Then also, I guess, that the statistics that we also saw on our side was from August, Andreas, and I guess we will see some other figures now coming into September, October and so on. We also have had a lot of big maintenance stops in pulp. But you're right. I mean, we also hear that companies, they are taking curtailments now. So far, no big changes. But I mean -- and the prices maybe -- I guess that the price has already bottomed because at this level, we see that curtailments are taken instead of continuing to produce and of course, creating a negative cash flow. So we have reached the bottom. I guess we will see some result of actions taken now later this year. But again, the fundamental challenge is the underlying demand that must come back.
Robin Santavirta: Thank you very much.
Operator: And we'll now move on to our next question from Oskar Lindstrom of Danske Bank.
Oskar Lindström: Three questions for me, if I may. The first one is just on the lower wood cost. You mentioned this in the Pulp division sequentially, but not in containerboard, sorry, not lower pulp costs, lower wood costs, having a positive impact on pulp, but it didn't seem to have it on Containerboard. What's the reason for that? Should I go on with the other questions?
Andreas Ewertz: No, we take 1 at a time. So I mean, we have maybe 1% lower pulpwood prices in both Containerboard and in Pulp. In Pulp, we had a better yield in the quarters, we had lower consumption of both energy and wood and they generally have low cost quarter. But I would say it's more on the consumption side that we have lower cost on pulp in this quarter.
Oskar Lindström: And in Containerboard, was it just the maintenance stop that sort of...
Andreas Ewertz: The Containerboard, we had large maintenance stop both in Munksund and Obbola, the cost around SEK 20 million. So that quarter was impacted by that stop.
Oskar Lindström: Right. Moving on to cash flow. You say that you will increase your cash flow significantly in 2026, and I presume beyond as well, while CapEx looks as if it's going to come down quite a bit. If we only look at the ramp-up of Obbola, can you say anything about what kind of contribution you expect from that 2026 versus 2025? If you reach the 100,000 tonnes, could you put a monetary value on that?
Andreas Ewertz: Currently, I would say it's hard to put the money on the excess volume because you said that currently have a weaker market, and that means that the extra volumes you would place on -- you have a worst customer mix and country mix on those extra volumes that will, of course, depend on how the market develops. If you have a stronger market, I mean, those volumes would be placed in customers in Europe and places nearby. And that will have a larger impact. But if you have a weak market, of course, then we'll have to put it further away. So it depends on how the market develops.
Ulf Larsson: And also to add, I mean, if you have -- yes, maybe that was exactly what you said. I mean, if you have an additional volume already this year, if you go from a little bit over 400 up to 600, I mean that puts a pressure in a tough market that puts a pressure on the market side, of course. So I mean you also have a -- you have ramp-up production-wise, but you also have a ramp-up in the market. So of course, we have to find markets overseas not at least as it is just now.
Oskar Lindström: Of course. And my third question is, I mean, we've seen other companies in your sector announcing cost savings and even structural changes as a consequence of the tough market, which both they and you seem to feel is not about to change anytime soon. I mean, do you see any need for you to take actions if demand does not improve, either cost-saving actions or structural changes?
Ulf Larsson: I mean, if we go back to 2017, as I said, we have been invested 20% of the net sales more or less every year. And by that, we have also top-class sites as it is just now. We have also, during this period, closed down our publication paper business. and we are focused on pulp, containerboard and also solid wood products and to some extent, also renewable energy. And step by step, I mean, as soon as we see that we can reduce the manning or if we can do something else to improve our cost position, we will do that. So for me, it's -- I don't like those programs because that means that you haven't done your work -- your ongoing work, so to say.
Andreas Ewertz: For the last one and half year we had a program to reduce our personnel at our pulp division with around 80 people and has gradually begun to give an effect.
Ulf Larsson: And we reduced the manning by 800 people when we closed down the publication paper business. So I mean, if you have structural changes, then, of course, you have to follow up with personnel reductions, but otherwise, that is something that you have to do. That's the everyday work.
Oskar Lindström: My final question is on CapEx, which you talked a little bit about here. You say that you expect next year for current CapEx to be -- I can't remember the exact wording, but slightly higher. And then how much higher is that? And then you said the strategic CapEx will be a couple of hundred million. How many couples of hundreds of millions are we talking about? Is it possible for you to be a little bit more precise? I'm just wondering.
Andreas Ewertz: It depends, of course, on what overspill we have to next year, and then it depends. I mean, we have our base CapEx for next year. And then we have some potential projects, and it depends on which of them we go through with which timing, but if we go around 1.5 this year, then you're talking maybe SEK 100 million, SEK 200 million more next year on current CapEx. But again, it depends on what projects we do. And also on the strategic side, it will -- I mean, it will be between 0 and SEK 1 billion but it depends on the timing of our strategic CapEx. For example, we have 1 payment that would either go at the end of this year or the early next year, which is around SEK 150 million, and we have a couple of hundred millions next year. So it depends. But just to give a rough figure.
Ulf Larsson: But CapEx will come down.
Andreas Ewertz: Yes, CapEx will come down, yes.
Oskar Lindström: Thank you very much. Those are my questions.
Operator: And we'll now take our next question from Martin Melbye of ABG.
Martin Melbye: Given tariffs and new volumes to place, could you give some hints on prices for Pulp and Containerboard at volumes heading into Q4 quarter-over-quarter?
Ulf Larsson: I mean, we don't know. That's the honest answer. But as I said, we -- I guess, we are in Pulp at the bottom level just now. I mean, as we -- as I said before, I mean, we have seen substantial curtailments taken now. And so I guess, Pulp prices will -- if they -- the only way from this point, I guess, is upwards. When will that come? Well, remains to see, I guess. I think for Containerboard, we have more capacity has come on stream during the third quarter. No additional capacity will come on stream, but we will see some ramp-ups. I guess we will see some closures in testliner going forward. The balance for kraftliner is much better, of course. I mean, the only additional volume coming in now is our own from the ramp-up in Obbola. On the other side, the inventory level is on the high side coming down a little bit now when we had the new statistics. So it's always -- it's a question of supply-demand balance, of course. But my best guess is sideways, maybe we will start to see upward trend in Pulp and maybe sideways in Containerboard. And as I already said, I guess, we will see somewhat decrease in prices in solid wood products, I guess, another 5% in the fourth quarter and then the first quarter is always -- it's tricky to increase prices in the first quarter. If something is happening now in U.S., that might have a faster impact on the pricing for solid wood products. But otherwise, I think we have to wait for the second quarter next year.
Andreas Ewertz: And in terms of volumes, forest, you harvest a bit more from our own forest in the fourth quarter. In solid wood products, I sort of mentioned, you seasonally weaker quarter compared to the summer months so they have lower delivery volumes. In Containerboard, it will be slightly higher since we had a big maintenance stop in the third quarter, which we won't have in the fourth. And in Pulp, I would say it's slightly up or flat.
Operator: Thank you. And we'll now take our next question from Cole Hathorn of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Cole Hathorn: I'd just like to ask what do you see would be the positive catalyst for each of your segments and like to take it in turn. But maybe starting on Pulp. What do you think is truly needed exit the demand? Do you think it's going to be capacity closure potentially something out of Canada considering they've got elevated wood costs and you see a sawmill go down and then pulpwood closure that tightens the market. Wood product, is it ultimately just a demand that's needed rather than any form of supply response? And Containerboard, I'm just wondering what are you looking for in the market for kraftliner. Is it -- do we need to rely on the recycled closures and to follow that? Or are you seeing the ability to kind of keep this premium versus recycled considering the less imports from the U.S. and much better supply-demand balance in...
Ulf Larsson: If we start with pulp, I guess, it's again, it's about demand. The tissue business is rather slow, of course, it might be impacted by closures also, again, it's a supply-demand issue. And it might be so that just my speculation, but I mean, if we will have a tough -- if tariffs will remain in Canada for solid wood products that will have a negative impact on the raw material supply to the pulp mills that might have an impact over time, of course. Otherwise, it's demand and mainly then in the tissue segment. In wood, as already said, I mean, we are in the slower season just now in Q4 and Q1. I guess that sooner or later, Americans, they have -- they must start to buy solid wood products. And if the tariff level from Canada over to U.S. will remain of 45%, that definitely will mean that we will see increasing prices in solid wood products even if you're not a big supplier to U.S., which we are not, but still, that will have an impact on the global trade rather immediately, I would say. And then we know that it can start to move quite fast. But I guess if you look at the inventory level in U.S., we have to wait for at least a quarter before we can see something. In Containerboard, I mean, we look at the box consumption, and we feel that we have a slow demand from the industry while I mean, in other businesses for food and yes, maybe trade and that part -- that is going quite in a normal pace. So -- but the industry for us, I mean, heavy-duty spare parts and things like that where we typically can find a premium for kraftliner. My -- I don't know, but my guess is also that we will see closures in testliner, I guess that the main part of testliner produces just now, they don't make money. And I guess we have a chicken race on the testliner side as this just now. The balance both for Containerboard, kraftliner and also for NBSK, it's much, much better than for recycled-based production.
Cole Hathorn: And then maybe just following up on capital allocation. You were clear that you're ramping up your projects, your past peak CapEx. And beyond that, you've got flexibility for consider capital returns via dividends and buybacks. But you didn't mention anything on M&A, and I'm just wondering how you think about that? And what are your criteria there? Would you consider anything in Central Eastern Europe if a very low-cost asset came available? Are you staying with your production base in Sweden? Just like your thoughts.
Ulf Larsson: I mean, typically, we are a company based on organic growth. And typically, we are a company focused on Sweden where we have our own forest. We don't like to stay in countries where we can see a higher risk really. So I guess we are -- but on the other hand, you shall never say no. But typically, we are based on -- and focused on organic growth as it is.
Andreas Ewertz: And as Ulf mentioned before, currently, I mean, we're focusing on our ramp-up of our current project before we add some too much complexity.
Operator: And we will now move on to our next question from Andrew Jones of UBS.
Andrew Jones: Can you hear me okay?
Andreas Ewertz: Now, we hear you.
Andrew Jones: Sorry, apologies, I missed the start of the call. So if you've mentioned this, my apologies. But on the actual solid wood products, what usually give a bit of the sort of guidance range in terms of pricing? I mean, how do you look at pricing going into the fourth quarter on -- in the Wood division? And then also, I think on the last quarter, you sort of gave us like a percentage changes you expect in the Forest division in both logs and then pulp. What sort of percentage changes are you sort of thinking about in the Forest for those 2 categories?
Ulf Larsson: The first one, yes, we did mention that one. And as I said, I mean, we lost 5% in terms of price from -- in the third quarter in comparison with the second quarter. And I guess that we will lose another 5% in the fourth quarter. And that is mainly a seasonal effect as the demand always -- we always have a slower demand in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter. Forest, Andreas, you can...
Andreas Ewertz: Yes. So Forest, pulpwood, I mean, they have peaked. We saw a very slight decrease here in the third quarter, maybe 1%, and we expect fairly flat, maybe 1% down in Q4 because of this lag effect. In terms of sawlogs, they will continue to increase a bit in the fourth quarter, maybe 5% compared to Q3, but that's also because you saw that the logs were quite flat within Q2 and Q3. But that's more of a mix effect. We had lower dimension on the logs, which have a lower prices. So we didn't get that so underlying, the prices increased also in Q2 to Q3. But since we had that mix, we didn't see that increase. But now we'll get that in Q4 so maybe 5% up.
Andrew Jones: So it sounds like a pretty tough quarter, fourth quarter if you're sort of saying price is 5% down, log import prices 5% up. And you're probably seeing some seasonal volume weakness, I guess, maybe and it's about 5% last year. So anything to mitigate or offset those moving parts?
Andreas Ewertz: Yes. So but on the solid wood products, I mean, as Ulf said, the prices will go down 5% and also the log will continue to increase a bit, but of course, continuing to focus on cost and what we can affect.
Andrew Jones: Okay. And just 1 question just about the structural change. On kraftliner, I mean, you've kind of talked about the market being more balanced in kraftliner, obviously compared to testliner, but I mean, how -- why can the actual premium kraftliner and testliner fee in the medium term given the sort of substitution potential, I'm curious like to see whether that premium can be maintained in the near-ish term.
Ulf Larsson: It's hard to say. I mean, the delta just now is EUR 280 or something like that. So that is a rather wide gap. And I guess if customers -- if they can substitute, they will substitute. And we see the same trend in -- we have the same question always in softwood and hardwood pulp. But the same answer, I mean, if customers, if they can substitute, they will do it because if something is cheaper, of course, they will use that instead. So I guess my perspective is more that I think we will at least remain on rather high delta between testliner and test recycled products and base products and virgin-based products as virgin fiber will be a scare resource going forward. So strategically, I guess, we will widen this gap, which we have also seen in the past years. So I think that will remain, honestly. And also, when you look at the capacity increase. I mean, the absolute main part capacity is coming in the recycled business. But in order to get raw material to the recycled business, you must have some virgin-based production.
Operator: And we'll now take our next question from Pallav Mittal of Barclays.
Pallav Mittal: Pallav Mittal on behalf of Gaurav Jain. So a few questions. Firstly, you and your peers have all highlighted good availability of pulpwood because of which we are now seeing this decline in pricing. And now given demand is weak and there are a number of production curtailments, how do you think these pulpwood costs could change if you start seeing some sort of improvement in demand?
Ulf Larsson: Then, of course, it might be so that you have bottleneck again in raw material supply. So again, to have a stable long-term increase in the market, then the consumption must come up, the demand must come up. So that's the simple answer. And I mean, then it might be so that if -- when sawlog prices, if they come down, but pulpwood prices, when they come down, then it might be so that you see additional capacity coming on stream. And by that, of course, the supply will increase for a while. And if then the demand is not picking up, then, of course, you will have a pressure in the market again. So it is as easy as that. It's always a question about supply-demand.
Andreas Ewertz: And your question on -- I mean, of course, if demand for the finished product goes up and the production goes up, that will, of course, increase the demand for wood raw material, which is already has been tight.
Pallav Mittal: Sure. And then if I can ask something on CTMP. So you did mention that CTMP prices have declined in Europe, and now we are seeing new capacity in China as well. But does that impact your CTMP ramp-up?
Ulf Larsson: I mean, as it is just now, we have a rather profitable business within Europe in CTMP. But as you say, I mean, we have very -- the margin is not too big in Asia. So yes, in that perspective, we are maybe in -- it's always a marginal calculation. So if we have days with high electricity price or if not now, but before when we saw that we had scarce situation when it comes to pulpwood. I mean then we -- of course, the first production site, we took containers in was in Ortviken and CTMP. So as it is just now, we are a little bit more focused on fine-tuning, I mean, also try to validate products for the European market and so on. So it is very small or from time to time, negative market going from Sweden over to Asia in CTMP as it is just now.
Operator: Thank you. That was our last question. I will now hand it back to the host for closing remarks.
Ulf Larsson: Thank you, and that concludes our presentation of the third quarter results. We'll come back in January for our full year report. Thank you for watching, and thank you for listening.