Autonomous vehicle disruption eliminating driver commissions (20-25% of gross bookings) - timeline uncertain but Tesla, Waymo, Cruise pose existential threat to current marketplace model by 2030+
Regulatory reclassification of drivers as employees rather than contractors - California AB5 precedent could expand nationally, adding $3-5B annual labor costs and destroying unit economics
Antitrust scrutiny of marketplace dominance and restaurant commission rates (30% take rate faces political pressure, NYC capped at 15% during COVID)
DoorDash maintaining 65% US delivery market share with superior restaurant density and DashPass subscription momentum - Uber Eats struggles to close gap despite global scale
Lyft price competition in US Mobility forcing promotional spending to defend 70% share - irrational competitor behavior can compress take rates
Regional super-apps (Grab in Southeast Asia, Didi in China, Rappi in LatAm) with deeper local market penetration and regulatory relationships
Insurance reserve adequacy for driver accidents and liability claims - $2B+ reserves could prove insufficient if accident severity increases or litigation environment worsens
Equity compensation dilution running 3-4% annually, though declining as company matures and stock-based comp moderates
StructuralCompetitiveBalance Sheet