10-Year Breakeven Inflation
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate — Historical Chart
2.25%
▼ 4.26% YoYAug 2026
All-Time High
3.02%
All-Time Low
0.04%
Data Since
2003
Source: FRED / Federal ReserveShaded = NBER recessions
The market-implied inflation expectation over the next 10 years, derived from the spread between 10-year nominal Treasuries and TIPS. When breakevens rise above 2.5%, it signals the market is pricing in above-target inflation. The Fed watches this daily.