Yield Curve (10Y − 2Y)
US Yield Curve Spread — Historical Chart
0.46%
▼ 9.80% YoYAug 2026
All-Time High
2.91%
All-Time Low
-2.41%
Data Since
1976
Source: FRED / Federal ReserveShaded = NBER recessions
The spread between 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields. When negative (inverted), this has preceded every US recession since the 1970s, though with a lag of 6–24 months. A yield curve inversion indicates that markets expect future rate cuts.