AL
Earnings in 3 days · May 4, 2026 · After close
Signal
Leaning Bearish1!
Price
1
Move+0.00%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume1.1× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 80Overbought
PRICE
Prev Close
65.00
Open
64.98
Day Range64.97 – 65.00
64.97
65.00
52W Range38.25 – 65.00
38.25
65.00
100% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
2.1M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
7.0x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.02%
Beta
1.31
Market-like
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +10% YoY
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 7x vs ~20x sector
Health
WEAK
CR 0.9 (low) · FCF negative
Lean Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$7.28B
Revenue TTM$3.02B
Net Income TTM$1.09B
Free Cash Flow-$1.73B
Gross Margin38.4%
Net Margin36.1%
Operating Margin29.5%
Return on Equity13.2%
Return on Assets3.3%
Debt / Equity2.33
Current Ratio0.93
EPS TTM$9.74
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Aircraft order book announcements and delivery timing - new aircraft commitments signal growth but require financing

Airline industry health metrics - global RPMs (revenue passenger miles), load factors, and airline bankruptcies/restructurings directly impact lease payment reliability

Lease rate spreads and pricing environment - spread compression or expansion versus debt costs drives profitability

Aircraft residual value trends - appraisals of narrowbody and widebody values affect balance sheet carrying values and sale gains

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Aircraft leasing demand is directly tied to global air travel volumes, which correlate strongly with GDP growth, business activity, and consumer discretionary spending. During recessions, airlines reduce capacity, defer deliveries, and may default on leases (as seen in COVID-19). However, long-term lease contracts (8-12 years) provide revenue stability during short downturns. Emerging market exposure (Asia-Pacific, Latin America) adds cyclical sensitivity to regional growth rates. The 10.3% revenue growth reflects post-pandemic recovery in air travel demand.

Interest Rates

High sensitivity through multiple channels: (1) Financing costs - AL's debt-to-equity of 2.33 means rising rates directly increase interest expense on floating-rate debt and new issuances, compressing net spreads. (2) Valuation multiples - as a yield-oriented stock trading at 0.9x book value, rising risk-free rates make AL's equity less attractive versus bonds, pressuring P/B multiples. (3) Aircraft residual values - higher discount rates reduce NPV of future lease cash flows, potentially impairing aircraft carrying values. The Federal Funds rate and 10-year Treasury yield are primary drivers. Current 50.5% operating margin provides some cushion, but sustained rate increases above 5% would pressure ROE (currently 13.2%).

Key Risks

Aircraft oversupply risk - Boeing and Airbus production ramp-ups could flood the market with new aircraft, depressing lease rates and residual values, particularly if airline demand doesn't keep pace

Technological obsolescence - next-generation aircraft with superior fuel efficiency could render current narrowbody fleet (A320neo, 737 MAX) less competitive before end of economic life, impairing residual values

Regulatory and environmental mandates - carbon taxes, noise restrictions, or emissions standards could accelerate retirement of older aircraft or increase operating costs for lessees

Investor Profile

value - Stock trades at 0.9x book value despite 13.2% ROE and 10.3% revenue growth, attracting value investors seeking discount to NAV. Also appeals to yield-focused investors given stable lease cash flows and potential for dividends (36.1% net margin supports distributions). The 28.1% one-year return reflects re-rating as post-pandemic air travel recovery validates business model resilience. Not a growth stock given capital-intensive nature and moderate ROE, but offers asymmetric upside if book value discount closes.

Watch on Earnings
IATA global RPM (revenue passenger miles) growth rate - leading indicator of airline demand and lease payment sustainabilityBoeing and Airbus monthly delivery figures - supply-side indicator affecting aircraft availability and lease rate pricing powerComposite borrowing cost and credit spread trends (BBB corporate bond yields) - directly impacts net spread profitabilityAircraft appraisal values for A320neo and 737 MAX families - affects balance sheet carrying values and sale gains
Health Radar
2 watch4 concern
24/100
Liquidity
0.93Concern
Leverage
2.33Concern
Coverage
3.5xWatch
ROE
13.2%Watch
ROIC
2.2%Concern
Cash
$466MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE19 analysts
BUY
+0.0%upside to target
Buy
1474%
Hold
316%
Sell
211%
14 Buy (74%)3 Hold (16%)2 Sell (10%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
4/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 80 — Overbought, caution
~
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.93 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 2, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateJul 30, 2026
In 90 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 17.9%

+1.1% vs SMA 50 · +19.1% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI80.4
Overbought — pullback risk
MACD+0.21
Above zero — bullish momentum · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$65.00+0.0%
Current
$65.00
EMA 50
$64.35-1.0%
EMA 200
$54.93-15.5%
52W Low
$38.25-41.2%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week high
$38.25100th %ile$65.00
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:3
Dist days:0
Edge:+3 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)808K
Recent Vol (5D)
607K-25%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 3 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↑ Revised UpRevenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$2.7B
$2.7B$2.7B
$4.68
±1%
Low2
FY2024
$2.7B
$2.7B$2.7B
+0.6%$3.25-30.6%
±1%
Moderate3
FY2025
$3.0B
$3.0B$3.0B
+9.8%$8.89+173.7%
±1%
Moderate3
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryAL
Last 8Q
+18.7%avg beat
Beat 5 of 8 quartersMissed 3 Estimates rising
-12%
Q2'24
-21%
Q3'24
+58%
Q4'24
+63%
Q1'25
+22%
Q2'25
+5%
Q3'25
-19%
Q4'25
+54%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Cowen & Co.Buy → Hold
Sep 3
DOWNGRADE
Deutsche BankUnderperform → Hold
Sep 3
DOWNGRADE
CitigroupBuy
May 20
UPGRADE
Zacks Investment Re…Hold
Apr 26
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Udvar-hazy Steven FDir
$1.3M
Dec 12
SELL
Udvar-hazy Steven FDir
$1.3M
Dec 15
SELL
Udvar-hazy Steven FDir
$1.2M
Dec 12
SELL
Udvar-hazy Steven FDir
$1.2M
Dec 15
SELL
Udvar-hazy Steven FDir
$1.2M
Dec 12
SELL
Udvar-hazy Steven FDir
$1.2M
Dec 15
SELL
Financials
Dividends1.35% yield
+2.7% avg annual growth
Annual Yield1.35%
Quarterly Div.$0.2200
Est. Annual / Share$0.88
FrequencyQuarterly
Q2'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
ALPINE ASSOCIATES MANAGEMENT INC.
1.4M
2
SG Americas Securities, LLC
1.1M
3
Alberta Investment Management Corp
600K
4
Barton Investment Management
340K
5
Nuveen, LLC
236K
6
Marathon Asset Management Ltd
199K
7
CREDIT INDUSTRIEL ET COMMERCIAL
182K
8
Parkside Investments, LLC
114K
News & Activity

AL News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

launched in 2010, air lease corporation (alc) is an aircraft leasing company based in los angeles, california that has airline customers throughout the world. alc and its team of dedicated and experienced professionals are principally engaged in purchasing commercial aircraft and leasing them to its airline partners worldwide through customized aircraft leasing and financing solutions. for more information, visit alc's website at www.airleasecorp.com.

CEO
John Plueger
David BekerExecutive Vice President of Marketing and Head of Aircraft Sales & Trading
Grant A. LevyExecutive Vice President of Marketing & Commercial Affairs
Grant D. NewmanSenior Vice President & Treasurer
Peers(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
AL
$65.00+0.00%$7.3B1500
$396.06+0.57%$2.1T28.7+3296.8%4510.0%1500
$91.86+2.89%$318.3B14.0+318.8%1510.7%1500
$131.91+1.13%$306.2B22.6+586.3%1305.9%1500
$187.37+1.17%$290.5B28.1+862.9%1745.9%1500
$147.85+3.44%$282.1B21.0+597.3%2564.4%1500
$90.67+1.98%$256.7B14.5-591.0%668.4%1500
Sector avg+1.60%21.5+845.2%2050.9%1500