AN
Earnings in 2 days · May 1, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Leaning Bearish2
Price
1
Move+2.35%Positive session
Day RangeMid-Range$202.13 — $211.54
Volume
1
Volume0.8× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 58Momentum positive
Position
1
52W Range62% of range$167.83 — $228.92
PRICE
Prev Close
200.97
Open
202.13
Day Range202.13 – 211.54
202.13
211.54
52W Range167.83 – 228.92
167.83
228.92
62% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
463.1K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
12.1x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
0.94
Market-like
Performance
1D
-1.49%
5D
-0.98%
1M
+4.41%
3M
-6.93%
6M
+1.90%
YTD
-2.67%
1Y
+17.04%
Best: 1Y (+17.04%)Worst: 3M (-6.93%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
NEUTRAL
rev +3% · 18% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 12x vs ~20x sector
Health
WEAK
CR 0.8 (low) · FCF negative
Neutral
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$7.20B
Revenue TTM$27.63B
Net Income TTM$649.10M
Free Cash Flow-$197.50M
Gross Margin17.7%
Net Margin2.3%
Operating Margin4.5%
Return on Equity26.7%
Return on Assets4.5%
Debt / Equity4.35
Current Ratio0.84
EPS TTM$17.73
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

New vehicle inventory availability and days supply (normalized levels 55-65 days vs recent 25-35 day constraints)

Used vehicle pricing trends and wholesale auction values (Manheim Index movements)

F&I product penetration rates per vehicle retailed (typically $1,800-2,200 per unit)

Same-store sales growth in parts and service revenue (customer pay vs warranty mix)

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - New vehicle sales exhibit 1.2-1.5x GDP beta, with demand highly correlated to consumer confidence, employment levels, and discretionary income. Used vehicle demand shows slightly lower cyclicality but remains sensitive to credit availability and consumer financial stress. Parts/service revenue (18% of total) provides modest counter-cyclical buffer as consumers defer new purchases and maintain existing vehicles longer during downturns.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates create dual pressure: (1) Higher financing costs reduce vehicle affordability, with monthly payment sensitivity causing demand destruction when rates exceed 7-8% for prime borrowers; (2) Floor plan financing costs increase, compressing dealer margins on inventory holding; (3) The company's $4.5B debt load faces higher refinancing costs. However, AutoNation benefits from financing commission spreads when it can pass rate increases to consumers. Current 4.35x debt/equity ratio amplifies rate sensitivity.

Key Risks

Electric vehicle transition disrupting traditional service revenue model (EVs require 40-50% less maintenance, threatening highest-margin business segment over 10-15 year horizon)

Direct-to-consumer sales models from Tesla and emerging EV manufacturers bypassing franchise dealer networks, with potential regulatory changes allowing OEMs to sell directly

Autonomous vehicle adoption potentially reducing total vehicle ownership rates and miles driven in urban markets where AutoNation concentrates operations

Investor Profile

value - Stock trades at 0.3x sales and 11.1x EV/EBITDA, below historical averages, attracting value investors focused on cyclical recovery and capital return. The 26.7% ROE and aggressive share buyback program (company has repurchased 50%+ of shares outstanding over past decade) appeal to investors seeking capital-efficient businesses trading below intrinsic value. Recent underperformance (6.1% 1-year return) and negative FCF have reduced momentum investor interest.

Watch on Earnings
SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) for US light vehicle sales (normalized 16-17M units vs current 15-16M)Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (wholesale auction pricing benchmark)Average new vehicle transaction prices and incentive spending per unit by OEMsConsumer auto loan delinquency rates (60+ day delinquencies) as leading credit indicator
Health Radar
1 strong1 watch4 concern
31/100
Liquidity
0.84Concern
Leverage
4.35Concern
Coverage
4.2xWatch
ROE
26.7%Strong
ROIC
7.0%Concern
Cash
$59MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE33 analysts
BUY
+13.3%upside to target
64/100 conviction
L $230.00
Med $233.00consensus
H $300.00
Buy
2061%
Hold
1133%
Sell
26%
20 Buy (61%)11 Hold (33%)2 Sell (6%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
7/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 58 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowNeutral
~
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.84 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings Report · Before OpenApr 30, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateJul 28, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 11, 2026
In 104 days
Technicals
Technical SignalsBULLISH
Technicals →
5 Buy1 Sell1 Neutral7 signals
SellNeutralBuy
IndicatorValueSignalStrength
RSI (14)58.4NEUTRAL
17%
SMA 50↑ SUPP$199.0BULLISH
58%
SMA 200↑ SUPP$202.9BULLISH
53%
EMA 50$200.7BULLISH
56%
EMA 200$202.3BULLISH
54%
MA Trend50D < 200DDEATH X
44%
MACD+2.27BULLISH
61%
Key Levels
Resistance
None above
Support
SMA 200$202.91.4%
SMA 50$199.03.4%
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$228.9+11.3%
Current
$205.7
EMA 200
$202.3-1.6%
EMA 50
$200.7-2.4%
52W Low
$167.8-18.4%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$167.862th %ile$228.9
RSI (14)58.4

Momentum neutral-to-bullish

Squeeze SetupVolume-based
No Clear Setup

Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:6
Dist days:4
Edge:+2 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)407K
Recent Vol (5D)
524K+29%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 9 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$27.9B
$27.8B$28.1B
$19.97
±1%
High8
FY2026(current)
$28.0B
$27.7B$28.3B
+0.3%$21.16+5.9%
±2%
High9
FY2027
$28.7B
$28.0B$29.8B
+2.7%$23.63+11.7%
±3%
High9
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
🔥Beat 5 consecutive quarters
Earnings HistoryAN
Last 8Q
+4.5%avg beat
Beat 6 of 8 quartersMissed 2 Estimates rising
+5%
Q2'24
-8%
Q3'24
-8%
Q4'24
+17%
Q1'25
+6%
Q2'25
+16%
Q3'25
+3%
Q4'25
+5%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Morgan StanleyUnderweight → Overweight
Sep 25
UPGRADE
Morgan StanleyEqual-Weight → Underweight
Jul 21
DOWNGRADE
J.P. MorganUnderweight
Feb 21
DOWNGRADE
Wells FargoOverweight → Equal-Weight
Jan 13
DOWNGRADE
StephensOverweight
Apr 25
UPGRADE
Truist FinancialBuy
Apr 25
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/1 SellNet Selling
Edmunds C ColemanEVP, Gen Couns…
$2.3M
May 16
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

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173K
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165K
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74K
4
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40K
5
Assenagon Asset Management S.A.
32K
6
NEW YORK STATE TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM
29K
7
JB Capital LLC
26K
8
HCR Wealth Advisors
24K
News & Activity

AN News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

AutoNation, America's largest and most recognized automotive retailer, is transforming the automotive industry through its bold leadership, innovation, and comprehensive brand extensions. As of September 30, 2020, AutoNation owned and operated over 325 locations from coast to coast. AutoNation has sold over 12 million vehicles, the first automotive retailer to reach this milestone. AutoNation's success is driven by a commitment to delivering a peerless experience through Customer-focused sales and service processes. Since 2013, AutoNation has raised $25 million to drive out cancer, create awareness, and support critical research through its DRIVE PINK initiative, which was officially branded in 2015.

Industry
New Car Dealers
C. Coleman G. EdmundsExecutive Vice President, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary
Christian TreiberPresident of After-Sales
Derek FiebigVice President of Investor Relations
Peers(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
AN
$205.69-1.49%$6.9B11.3+323.6%234.9%1500
$393.83-3.12%$2.0T29.8+3296.8%4510.0%1500
$89.28+0.00%$311.7B1500
$130.45-1.28%$303.7B+586.3%1500
$185.20-0.96%$289.4B1500
$142.94+0.00%$280.9B+597.3%1500
$191.26+0.42%$251.5B11.0+652.3%992.0%1500
Sector avg-0.92%17.4+1091.2%1912.3%1500