ARCO
Next earnings: May 20, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Bullish Setup2
Price
1
Move+3.00%Strong session
Volume
1
Volume0.7× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 52Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
8.66
Open
8.71
Day Range8.70 – 9.01
8.70
9.01
52W Range6.51 – 9.75
6.51
9.75
74% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
1.3M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
8.8x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.02%
Beta
0.83
Market-like
Performance
1D
+3.00%
5D
-4.19%
1M
+12.48%
3M
+9.05%
6M
+23.55%
YTD
+21.53%
1Y
+16.60%
Best: 6M (+23.55%)Worst: 5D (-4.19%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
NEUTRAL
rev +5% · 12% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 9x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
CR 1.0 · FCF $0.05/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.88B
Revenue TTM$4.68B
Net Income TTM$212.12M
Free Cash Flow$11.22M
Gross Margin12.3%
Net Margin4.5%
Operating Margin7.5%
Return on Equity32.5%
Return on Assets5.5%
Debt / Equity2.91
Current Ratio1.03
EPS TTM$1.01
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Brazilian Real and Argentine Peso exchange rates against USD (60%+ of revenue from Brazil/Argentina, significant translation impact)

Same-store sales growth across key markets (Brazil, Argentina, Mexico) driven by traffic and average ticket

Commodity cost inflation particularly beef, chicken, and cooking oil prices in local currencies

Latin American consumer confidence and real wage growth affecting discretionary spending on QSR

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - QSR spending in Latin America is highly correlated with real disposable income, employment levels, and consumer confidence. During economic downturns, consumers trade down from full-service restaurants to QSR, providing some defensive characteristics, but severe recessions (Argentina 2018-2020, Brazil 2015-2016) significantly impact traffic and ticket. The company's 3.2% revenue growth and -17.9% net income decline reflect challenging macro conditions in key markets as of early 2026.

Interest Rates

Moderate sensitivity through two channels: (1) Financing costs on $1.8B+ debt load, with rising rates in Brazil (Selic) and other markets increasing interest expense; (2) Consumer credit availability affecting discretionary spending capacity. US Federal Funds Rate impacts USD-denominated debt servicing costs and relative valuation multiples for LatAm equities. Current 0.89x current ratio suggests tight liquidity requiring careful debt management.

Key Risks

Currency devaluation risk across 20 LatAm markets with limited natural hedges - Brazilian Real, Argentine Peso, Chilean Peso volatility creates significant earnings translation risk and local purchasing power erosion

Political and regulatory instability in Argentina, Brazil, and other key markets including price controls, labor law changes, and tax policy shifts

Shifting consumer preferences toward healthier eating and delivery-first concepts challenging traditional QSR traffic patterns

Investor Profile

value - Trading at 0.4x P/S and 6.4x EV/EBITDA despite 41.8% ROE suggests deep value opportunity for investors willing to accept LatAm volatility. The stock attracts emerging market specialists, turnaround investors betting on margin recovery, and value investors seeking exposure to global QSR growth at distressed multiples. Recent 15.5% 3-month return indicates momentum building, but 0.2% 1-year return reflects ongoing fundamental challenges.

Watch on Earnings
Brazilian Real (BRL/USD) and Argentine Peso (ARS/USD) exchange rates - primary translation riskLive cattle futures (LEUSX) and soybean oil prices as proxies for beef and cooking oil input costsBrazil Selic rate and Argentina policy rate - impact local consumer purchasing power and company borrowing costsLatin American retail sales and consumer confidence indices
Health Radar
2 strong2 watch2 concern
46/100
Liquidity
1.03Watch
Leverage
2.91Concern
Coverage
8.1xStrong
ROE
32.5%Strong
ROIC
6.9%Concern
Cash
$373MWatch
ANALYST COVERAGE12 analysts
BUY
+29.2%upside to target
L $9.05
Med $11.53consensus
H $14.00
Buy
867%
Hold
325%
Sell
18%
8 Buy (67%)3 Hold (25%)1 Sell (8%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
4/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 52 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.03
~
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 2, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateJul 30, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentOct 26, 2026
In 178 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 12.6%

+5.0% vs SMA 50 · +18.2% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI52.0
Neutral territory
MACD+0.18
Above zero — bullish momentum · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$9.75+9.3%
Current
$8.92
EMA 50
$8.56-4.1%
EMA 200
$7.73-13.4%
52W Low
$6.51-27.0%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$6.5174th %ile$9.75
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:4
Dist days:6
Edge:+2 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)1.5M
Recent Vol (5D)
1.0M-33%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 6 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↑ Revised UpRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$4.7B
$4.5B$4.7B
$0.91
±38%
High6
FY2026(current)
$5.2B
$5.2B$5.3B
+11.9%$0.69-23.6%
±8%
High6
FY2027
$5.6B
$5.3B$5.8B
+6.2%$0.83+20.4%
±6%
High6
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryARCO
Last 8Q
-1.3%avg beat
Beat 4 of 8 quartersMissed 3 Estimates falling
-18%
Q2'24
Q3'24
+6%
Q4'24
+27%
Q1'25
-46%
Q2'25
+120%
Q3'25
+20%
Q4'25
-120%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
Mild positive momentum
30d10
90d10
SantanderOutperform
Apr 20
UPGRADE
BradescoOutperform
Jun 15
UPGRADE
Credit SuisseOutperform
Feb 23
UPGRADE
Financials
Dividends2.80% yield
+9.2% avg annual growth
Annual Yield2.80%
Quarterly Div.$0.0700
Est. Annual / Share$0.28
FrequencyQuarterly
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26
Q2'26
Q3'26
Q4'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
PZENA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC
10.7M
2
Perpetual Ltd
1.4M
3
O'Keefe Stevens Advisory, Inc.
632K
4
SAPIENT CAPITAL LLC
246K
5
ACORN FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES INC /ADV
218K
6
American Capital Advisory, LLC
186K
7
DELTEC ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC
120K
8
West Tower Group, LLC
110K
News & Activity

ARCO News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. is a company that owns the master franchise of the fast food restaurant chain McDonald’s in 20 countries within Latin America and the Caribbean. As of December 31, 2010, it represented 6.7% of McDonald's franchised restaurants globally.

CEO
Marcelo Rabach
Country
Uruguay
Daniel SchleinigerVice President of Investor Relations
David GrinbergVice President of Corporation Communications
Luana MatosVice President of People & Culture
Peers(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
ARCO
$8.92+3.00%$1.9B8.9+465.5%453.4%1500
$396.06+0.57%$2.1T28.7+3296.8%4510.0%1500
$91.86+2.89%$318.3B14.0+318.8%1510.7%1500
$131.91+1.13%$306.2B22.6+586.3%1305.9%1500
$187.37+1.17%$290.5B28.1+862.9%1745.9%1500
$147.85+3.44%$282.1B21.0+597.3%2564.4%1500
$90.67+1.98%$256.7B14.5-591.0%668.4%1500
Sector avg+2.03%19.7+791.0%1822.6%1500