FERG
Earnings in 4 days · May 5, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Bullish Setup2
Price
1
Move+4.51%Strong session
Volume
1
Volume0.8× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 67Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
256.16
Open
259.65
Day Range259.61 – 268.67
259.61
268.67
52W Range166.04 – 271.64
166.04
271.64
96% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
1.4M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
26.3x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.01%
Beta
0.92
Market-like
Performance
1D
+4.51%
5D
+2.20%
1M
+19.70%
3M
+6.04%
6M
+8.93%
YTD
+20.25%
1Y
+57.79%
Best: 1Y (+57.79%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +6% YoY
Valuation
EXPENSIVE
P/E 26x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 1.9 · FCF $4.84/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$52.04B
Revenue TTM$31.78B
Net Income TTM$2.07B
Free Cash Flow$946.22M
Gross Margin30.7%
Net Margin6.5%
Operating Margin9.1%
Return on Equity35.6%
Return on Assets12.1%
Debt / Equity0.92
Current Ratio1.86
EPS TTM$10.57
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

US housing starts and building permit trends - leading indicators for new construction demand with 6-9 month lag to revenue

Existing home sales and home price appreciation - drives repair/remodel spending as homeowners invest in aging properties

Residential HVAC replacement cycles - driven by equipment age (15-20 year lifespan), weather extremes, and energy efficiency upgrades

Commercial construction backlog and non-residential spending - impacts project-based revenue with longer lead times

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Revenue is directly tied to residential and commercial construction activity, which exhibits strong cyclicality. New construction (25% of revenue) correlates closely with GDP growth and employment, while repair/remodel spending (60%+ of revenue) shows moderate pro-cyclicality as homeowners defer discretionary projects during recessions. The company's 3.8% revenue growth reflects current mid-cycle conditions with stable housing activity but slowing new construction starts from 2021-2022 peaks.

Interest Rates

High sensitivity through multiple channels: (1) Mortgage rates directly impact housing affordability, new home sales, and existing home turnover - rising rates from 3% to 7% (2021-2023) compressed housing starts from 1.7M to 1.4M annual pace. (2) Commercial construction financing costs affect project economics and developer returns. (3) Homeowner equity extraction and HELOC availability for remodel projects declines as rates rise. (4) Valuation multiple compression as 18x EV/EBITDA reflects premium to historical average, vulnerable to rate-driven multiple contraction. However, moderate debt/equity of 0.99x limits direct financing cost impact.

Key Risks

E-commerce disruption from Amazon Business and direct-to-consumer manufacturers - threatens traditional branch-based distribution model, though complex installation requirements and contractor relationships provide defensibility

Manufacturer direct-to-contractor initiatives - suppliers like Carrier or Rheem could bypass distributors for large accounts, compressing margins on commodity products

Housing market structural slowdown - demographic headwinds from aging population, declining household formation rates, and affordability crisis could reduce long-term construction activity below historical norms

Investor Profile

growth-at-reasonable-price (GARP) - The 41% one-year return and 1.6x price/sales multiple reflect investor appetite for quality distribution businesses with market share gains. The 34% ROE and capital-efficient model attract quality-focused growth investors, while 3.1% FCF yield and moderate leverage appeal to value-conscious buyers. Not a pure value play given 18x EV/EBITDA premium valuation, but secular housing trends and operational improvements support growth narrative. Limited dividend yield suggests total return focus rather than income orientation.

Watch on Earnings
US housing starts (HOUST) - monthly data provides leading indicator for new construction revenue with 6-9 month lagBuilding permits (PERMIT) - leading indicator for residential construction activity, particularly single-family permits30-year mortgage rates (MORTGAGE30US) - directly impacts housing affordability and home purchase activity driving remodel demandExisting home sales volume - turnover drives repair/remodel spending as new homeowners upgrade properties
Health Radar
4 strong1 watch1 concern
68/100
Liquidity
1.86Watch
Leverage
0.92Strong
Coverage
15.3xStrong
ROE
35.6%Strong
ROIC
18.6%Strong
Cash
$674MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE14 analysts
BUY
+2.5%upside to target
L $220.00
Med $274.50consensus
H $300.00
Buy
1179%
Hold
321%
11 Buy (79%)3 Hold (21%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
5/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 67 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.86 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 2, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateJul 30, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentOct 15, 2026
In 167 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 22.2%

+8.5% vs SMA 50 · +32.5% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI67.2
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+5.30
Above zero — bullish momentum · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$271.6+1.5%
Current
$267.7
EMA 50
$248.8-7.1%
EMA 200
$205.0-23.4%
52W Low
$166.0-38.0%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week high
$166.096th %ile$271.6
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:3
Dist days:2
Edge:+1 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)1.6M
Recent Vol (5D)
1.4M-13%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 17 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$30.8B
$30.6B$31.0B
$9.94
±2%
High12
FY2026(current)
$32.6B
$32.4B$32.9B
+6.0%$11.13+12.0%
±2%
High17
FY2027
$34.6B
$33.6B$35.7B
+6.0%$12.34+10.9%
±5%
High16
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryFERG
Last 8Q
+4.6%avg beat
Beat 4 of 8 quartersMissed 2 Estimates rising
Q2'24
+5%
Q3'24
-6%
Q4'24
-4%
Q1'25
+24%
Q2'25
+16%
Q3'25
+3%
Q4'25
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Morgan StanleyEqual-Weight → Overweight
Jan 9
UPGRADE
Wells FargoOverweight
Jan 4
UPGRADE
JefferiesBuy
May 9
UPGRADE
HSBCBuy
Feb 28
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/4 SellsNet Selling
Graham Ian T.See Remarks
$145K
Oct 15
SELL
Winckler RichardChief Accounti…
$20K
Oct 16
SELL
Stirrup AllisonChief Human Re…
$227K
Oct 13
SELL
Winckler RichardChief Accounti…
$241K
Oct 14
SELL
Financials
Dividends1.28% yield
+7.0% avg annual growth
Annual Yield1.28%
Quarterly Div.$0.8900
Est. Annual / Share$3.56
FrequencyQuarterly
Q2'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q1'26
Q1'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Pictet Asset Management Holding SA
2.9M
2
USS Investment Management Ltd
1.2M
3
Nuveen, LLC
1.1M
4
Wesleyan Assurance Society
497K
5
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings, Inc.
443K
6
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
235K
7
Sterling Capital Management LLC
229K
8
abrdn plc
212K
News & Activity

FERG News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

No company information available

Peers(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
FERG
$267.71+4.51%$52.0B25.3+380.3%603.3%1500
$396.06+0.57%$2.1T28.7+3296.8%4510.0%1500
$91.86+2.89%$318.3B14.0+318.8%1510.7%1500
$131.91+1.13%$306.2B22.6+586.3%1305.9%1500
$187.37+1.17%$290.5B28.1+862.9%1745.9%1500
$147.85+3.44%$282.1B21.0+597.3%2564.4%1500
$90.67+1.98%$256.7B14.5-591.0%668.4%1500
Sector avg+2.24%22.0+778.8%1844.1%1500