FLO
Next earnings: May 15, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Bearish Setup11
Price
2
Move-0.67%Quiet session
Day RangeMid-Range$8.76 — $8.99
Volume
1
Volume0.6× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 57Momentum positive
Position
1
52W RangeBottom 10% of year$7.86 — $17.88
PRICE
Prev Close
8.93
Open
8.94
Day Range8.76 – 8.99
8.76
8.99
52W Range7.86 – 17.88
7.86
17.88
10% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
5.3M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
22.2x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.03%
Beta
0.35
Low vol
Performance
1D
-0.22%
5D
+2.06%
1M
+6.31%
3M
-19.40%
6M
-28.96%
YTD
-17.92%
1Y
-49.43%
Best: 1M (+6.31%)Worst: 1Y (-49.43%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +3% YoY · 48% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E 22x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
CR 0.7 (low) · FCF $1.56/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.88B
Revenue TTM$5.26B
Net Income TTM$83.83M
Free Cash Flow$329.21M
Gross Margin48.1%
Net Margin1.6%
Operating Margin6.0%
Return on Equity6.0%
Return on Assets2.0%
Debt / Equity1.79
Current Ratio0.75
EPS TTM$0.40
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Branded retail volume trends and market share gains/losses vs private label in core fresh bread category

Wheat and flour commodity cost inflation and the company's ability to pass through pricing (typically 3-6 month lag)

Diesel fuel prices impacting DSD fleet economics across 1,000+ delivery routes

Pricing realization and promotional intensity in competitive grocery channel

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

low - Fresh bread is a staple food category with relatively inelastic demand through economic cycles. However, the company faces moderate sensitivity through two channels: (1) consumer trading down from branded to private label during recessions, pressuring volumes and pricing, and (2) reduced foodservice demand during economic weakness. The 45.7% gross margin suggests some premium positioning vulnerability. Overall, revenue typically declines 0-3% in recessions while private label gains share.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates create moderate headwinds through higher debt servicing costs on the company's $1.9B net debt position (1.79x debt/equity). With estimated $100M+ annual interest expense, a 100bp rate increase adds $2-3M in costs. Additionally, higher rates pressure valuation multiples for low-growth staples stocks, as the dividend yield (currently estimated 3-4%) becomes less attractive relative to risk-free rates. The 0.75x current ratio indicates limited balance sheet flexibility to refinance at favorable terms.

Key Risks

Long-term volume decline in fresh bread category driven by low-carb/keto diet trends, gluten-free alternatives, and shifting consumer preferences toward protein-centric diets (category volumes down 1-2% annually over past decade)

Increasing private label penetration as retail consolidation (Walmart, Kroger, Costco) strengthens retailer bargaining power and store-brand quality improves, compressing branded pricing power

Automation and labor cost inflation in DSD model as driver wages rise and route density declines with lower volumes, threatening the economic viability of company-owned distribution

Investor Profile

value/dividend - The stock historically attracted income-focused investors seeking stable dividends from a defensive food staples business. However, the 46% one-year decline and 66% net income drop suggest a value trap scenario, with investors now questioning dividend sustainability and business model viability. The 15.3% FCF yield and 0.4x P/S ratio indicate deep value territory, attracting contrarian investors betting on operational turnaround, margin recovery, or potential M&A. The defensive sector classification no longer provides downside protection given structural headwinds.

Watch on Earnings
CBOT wheat futures (ZWUSX) and flour commodity costs as primary COGS driver (estimated 20-25% of total costs)Diesel fuel prices (HOUSD, RBUSD) impacting DSD fleet economics across 1,000+ routesUS retail food sales ex-restaurants (RSXFS) as proxy for grocery channel traffic and consumer spending patternsConsumer sentiment (UMCSENT) indicating potential trading down to private label during economic stress
Health Radar
2 watch4 concern
25/100
Liquidity
0.75Concern
Leverage
1.79Watch
Coverage
4.3xWatch
ROE
6.0%Concern
ROIC
6.2%Concern
Cash
$12MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE20 analysts
HOLD
+24.0%upside to target
54/100 conviction
L $8.00
Med $11.00consensus
H $11.00
Buy
630%
Hold
1155%
Sell
315%
6 Buy (30%)11 Hold (55%)3 Sell (15%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
4/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 57 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.75 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings Report · Before OpenApr 30, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateJul 28, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 21, 2026
In 114 days
Technicals
Technical SignalsBEARISH
Technicals →
2 Buy4 Sell1 Neutral7 signals
SellNeutralBuy
IndicatorValueSignalStrength
RSI (14)57.4NEUTRAL
15%
SMA 50↑ SUPP$8.85BULLISH
51%
SMA 200↓ RES$11.84BEARISH
0%
EMA 50$9.01BEARISH
46%
EMA 200$11.80BEARISH
0%
MA Trend50D < 200DDEATH X
0%
MACD+0.04BULLISH
50%
Key Levels
Resistance
SMA 200$11.8425.1%
Support
SMA 50$8.850.2%
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$17.88+101.6%
EMA 200
$11.80+33.1%
EMA 50
$9.01+1.6%
Current
$8.87
52W Low
$7.86-11.4%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$7.8610th %ile$17.88
RSI (14)57.4

Momentum neutral-to-bullish

Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:4
Dist days:4
Edge:Even
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)2.9M
Recent Vol (5D)
2.9M-1%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 5 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2026(current)
$5.3B
$5.2B$5.3B
$1.03
±1%
Moderate4
FY2027
$5.2B
$5.2B$5.2B
-1.2%$0.83-19.2%
±4%
High5
FY2028
$5.2B
$5.2B$5.2B
+0.7%$0.84+1.0%
±6%
Moderate4
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryFLO
Last 8Q
+5.8%avg beat
Beat 4 of 8 quartersMissed 2 Estimates falling
-10%
Q2'24
+9%
Q3'24
+14%
Q4'24
Q1'25
-8%
Q2'25
+3%
Q3'25
Q4'25
+38%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Deutsche BankSell → Hold
Mar 3
UPGRADE
Deutsche BankHold → Sell
Dec 6
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
1 Buy/3 SellsNet Selling
NET SELLERS$0 bought · $1.7M sold · 30d window
Mcmullian RyalsDir
$1.7M
Apr 1
SELL
Mcmullian RyalsDir
$2.3M
Jan 2
SELL
Stith Melvin TDir
$5K
Dec 3
BUY
Mcmullian RyalsDir
$4.5M
Sep 25
SELL
Financials
Dividends11.16% yield
+1.8% avg annual growth
Annual Yield11.16%
Semi-Annual Div.$0.2475
Est. Annual / Share$0.49
FrequencySemi-Annual
Q2'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
ProShare Advisors LLC
2.3M
2
WASATCH ADVISORS LP
2.1M
3
TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP
1.2M
4
Allen Mooney & Barnes Investment Advisors LLC
932K
5
Y-Intercept (Hong Kong) Ltd
341K
6
Retirement Systems of Alabama
259K
7
CWA Asset Management Group, LLC
210K
8
KEATING INVESTMENT COUNSELORS INC
184K
News & Activity

FLO News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

flowers foods, inc. (nyse: flo), with 2014 sales of $3.75 billion, is a leading producer and marketer of packaged bakery foods for retail and foodservice customers in the u.s. the company’s 46 highly efficient bakeries produce breads, buns, rolls, snack cakes, pastries, and tortillas. approximately 81 percent of the u.s. population has access to the company’s fresh bakery foods through a network of independent distributors serving the east, south, and southwest. flowers’ frozen bakery items and snack cakes are delivered to customers’ warehouses nationwide. flowers' top brands include nature's own, whitewheat, wonder bread, cobblestone mill, tastykake, mrs. freshley's, european bakers, bluebird, and mi casa and regional brands that include merita, home pride, butternut, country kitchen, barowsky's organics, butterkrust, captain john derst's, evangeline maid, sunbeam, bunny, mary jane, aunt hattie's, and holsum, and mary jane & friends.

CEO
A.Ryals McMullian
Heeth VarnedoePresident & Chief Operating Officer
James Thomas RieckExecutive Vice President of Finance & Investor Relations
Peers(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
FLO
$8.87-0.22%$1.9B22.5+299.8%159.5%1500
$393.83-3.12%$2.0T29.8+3296.8%4510.0%1500
$89.28+0.00%$311.7B1500
$130.45-1.28%$303.7B+586.3%1500
$185.20-0.96%$289.4B1500
$142.94+0.00%$280.9B+597.3%1500
$191.26+0.42%$251.5B11.0+652.3%992.0%1500
Sector avg-0.74%21.1+1086.5%1887.1%1500