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Greggs PLC has little to shout about after a year of slowing trade, according to Shore Capital, which says the bakery chain now faces a period of flat earnings and rebuilding its cash buffer. Preliminary results for 2025 on Tuesday showed total sales up 6.8% to £2.15 billion, with like-for-like growth of 2.4%.
Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG), the UK bakery chain, left its full-year profit guidance unchanged after like-for-like sales rose 1.6% in the first nine weeks of 2026, with total sales up 6.3%. The company said it expected to deliver profits at a similar underlying level to 2025, though it warned that any improvement would depend on a recovery in consumer spending.
Greggs plc trades at a historically low P/E of 11 with a >4% dividend yield, offering compelling value ahead of March 3 earnings. Despite macro headwinds and tax pressures, GGGSF maintains strong profitability with a 61.7% gross margin and 27.9% ROE, supported by aggressive expansion. Recent growth is driven by new locations, while like-for-like sales remain sluggish; upcoming earnings must show inflection in organic sales and FCF rebound.
Shares in Greggs PLC fell almost 5% after Jefferies warned that the baker is trying to push its sausage rolls into a growing headwind. Analysts argue that the biggest threat to sales volumes of its meat pastries is increasingly pharmaceutical rather than the meteorological ones that have been blamed in the past year.
Shares in Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) fell 6.5% to 1,658p on Thursday after the food-to-go group left guidance unchanged and delivered a trading update that failed to convince investors the recovery has real momentum. The shares moved lower despite the bakery chain reiterating expectations for the current financial year, with the market instead focusing on softer-than-hoped like-for-like sales growth and a more cautious outlook for 2026.
Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) reported higher sales for the fourth quarter and full year ended 27 December, despite challenging market conditions. Fourth quarter total sales increased 7.4%, while like-for-like sales in company-managed shops rose 2.9%.
Greggs (GGGSF) benefits from structural cost leadership via vertical integration, supporting superior gross margins and resilience against inflationary pressures. GGGSF's store expansion, supported by new distribution hubs, unlocks growth in non-traditional, high-traffic locations and addresses capacity constraints. Operating leverage and digital adoption drive margin expansion, while capex is expected to peak in 2025, setting up a free cash flow inflection.
Greggs plc is rated Buy, with a compelling recovery and re-rating opportunity as margin pressures abate. Geggs' thin margins mean small improvements in food, labour, or logistics costs can drive outsized profit and valuation gains. Store expansion, stabilising input costs, and normalising capex underpin a credible pathway to margin and earnings growth.
JP Morgan has initiated coverage of Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) with an “overweight” rating and a price target of 2,110p by December 2027, suggesting around 35% upside from current levels.The shares rose 6% to 1,680p. The bank said the bakery chain is a “structural winner” in the UK consumer landscape, citing strong operational metrics across its estate.
Shares of British quick-service restaurant Greggs have been weak this year, with the ADSs down around 20%. Like-for-like sales growth at company-managed shops was just 1.5% in Q3, driven by weak consumer sentiment that has affected the entire industry. Capital spending is currently elevated as Greggs is expanding its supply chain capacity. This has caused its net cash position to temporarily dwindle, hitting earnings due to lower interest income.
OneMain is a scale leader in nonprime personal lending. The macro backdrop has given us the opportunity to own OneMain at an attractive valuation. Becton, Dickinson's valuation is attractive given the company's defensive attributes and growth potential. Greggs' strong brand and differentiated business model have created loyal customers and long-term market share gains.
Analysts are split over sausage-roll merchant Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) following a third-quarter update that revealed weaker volumes and a slowdown in store openings. The bakery chain said total sales rose 6.1% in the 13 weeks to 27 September, down from 7% in the first half of the year.
Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) shares bounced further away from five-year lows seen last month as a quarterly update encouraged analysts and investors with news that after a very difficult July, August and September were better. The shares warmed up 7% to 1,721p on Wednesday lunchtime.
Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) reported a further slowdown in sales growth in the third quarter but insisted that its full-year outlook was unchanged. The bakery chain said total sales rose 6.1% in the 13 weeks to 27 September, down from 7% in the first half of the year.
Deutsche Bank has not been convinced to warm up its 'sell' rating on British baker Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG), with analysts now trimming expectations for third-quarter trading. Irregular weather is among the reasons for caution over the grab-and-go food retailer, as the German bank reckon milder than usual conditions aren't conducive to hot pastry sales, and will likely have weighed on demand.
Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) chief executive Roisin Currie stressed that she is "clear on the strategic opportunities that lie ahead" as the bakery chain reported interim results that had largely been pre-released. Total sales of £1.03 billion for the 26 weeks to 28 June, were up 7% on the prior year, with company-managed shop sales up 2.6% on a like-for-like basis and franchised shop LFL sales up 4.8%.
Greggs is a dominant UK bakery chain with strong brand loyalty, stable margins, and a 4% dividend yield, now trading at historically low valuations. Despite recent share price declines due to macroeconomic headwinds and a hot summer, long-term fundamentals and growth prospects remain robust. Expansion is focused solely on the UK, with over 100 net new stores opening annually, supporting sustainable 7-8% growth rates.
UBS says there are no structural issues with Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) despite recent trading challenges, reaffirming its positive view on the bakery chain's positioning and strategy. The bank's latest analysis, based on its Evidence Lab data, highlights strong consumer perceptions of Greggs' price and quality, stable to improving market share, and robust engagement with its mobile app.
Earnings forecasts for Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) for this year and next were cut by Barclays following weaker-than-expected trading and a recent unscheduled update, where the company had blamed hot weather for its poor performance. Discussions with the company indicate that hot weather was the single largest reason for the downgrade, as the company had bemoaned.