KMX
Next earnings: Jun 19, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Bearish Setup3
Price
1
Move-0.75%Quiet session
Day RangeNear Low$38.09 — $39.37
Volume
1
Volume0.6× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 38Momentum negative
Position
1
52W RangeBottom 19% of year$30.26 — $71.99
PRICE
Prev Close
38.64
Open
38.58
Day Range38.09 – 39.37
38.09
39.37
52W Range30.26 – 71.99
30.26
71.99
19% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
3.5M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
22.8x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.30
Market-like
Performance
1D
+1.23%
5D
-2.42%
1M
-5.43%
3M
-17.72%
6M
-13.07%
YTD
1Y
-40.65%
Best: 1D (+1.23%)Worst: 1Y (-40.65%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BEARISH
revenue -8% YoY · thin 11% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E 23x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 2.2 · FCF $8.44/sh
Neutral
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$5.50B
Revenue TTM$25.88B
Net Income TTM$247.29M
Free Cash Flow$1.24B
Gross Margin10.8%
Net Margin1.0%
Operating Margin0.8%
Return on Equity4.0%
Return on Assets0.9%
Debt / Equity0.47
Current Ratio2.20
EPS TTM$1.68
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Comparable-store used unit sales growth: Volume trends indicate market share gains/losses and consumer demand strength in $25,000-$35,000 price segment

Gross profit per used unit (GPU): Mix of retail margin compression from competitive pricing and wholesale margin volatility from auction market conditions

CAF penetration rate and net loan spreads: Percentage of retail sales financed through CarMax Auto Finance (target 40-45%) and spread between loan yields and funding costs

Credit performance metrics: Net charge-offs and delinquency rates on $8-10 billion CAF loan portfolio, particularly sensitive to subprime consumer stress

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Used vehicle purchases represent discretionary spending for most consumers, with demand highly correlated to employment stability, wage growth, and consumer confidence. The $25,000-$35,000 average transaction price targets middle-income households most sensitive to economic cycles. Sales volumes typically decline 15-25% during recessions as consumers defer purchases or trade down to lower-priced alternatives. Wholesale margins compress during downturns as auction demand weakens.

Interest Rates

Very high sensitivity through multiple channels: (1) Rising rates increase CAF funding costs (commercial paper, ABS issuance) faster than ability to reprice existing loan portfolio, compressing net interest margin by 50-100 bps per 100 bps rate increase, (2) Higher consumer loan APRs (often 10-18% for subprime) reduce affordability and payment approval rates, lowering CAF penetration and total unit sales by 5-10%, (3) Elevated rates pressure valuation multiples as investors demand higher equity risk premiums for cyclical retailers. Federal Funds rate moves of 200+ bps materially impact both earnings and stock multiple.

Key Risks

Electric vehicle transition disrupting used vehicle market dynamics: Uncertain residual values for EVs, higher reconditioning costs for battery/software systems, and potential demand shift toward manufacturer-certified EV programs reducing independent dealer relevance

Digital disintermediation from Carvana, Vroom, and OEM direct-to-consumer platforms: Online competitors eliminating physical infrastructure costs and offering nationwide delivery, though recent failures (Vroom shutdown, Carvana distress) validate CarMax omnichannel model

New vehicle production normalization: Semiconductor shortage resolution increasing new vehicle supply could compress used vehicle prices 10-15% from 2021-2023 peaks, reducing retail margins and creating inventory write-down risk

Investor Profile

value - Stock trades at 0.2x Price/Sales and 1.1x Price/Book following 48.8% one-year decline, attracting deep-value investors betting on cyclical recovery and mean reversion in used vehicle margins. Recent 36.5% three-month rally suggests momentum traders entering on technical reversal signals. Not suitable for dividend investors (minimal/no dividend) or growth investors given flat revenue and single-digit ROE. Appeals to special situations investors analyzing CAF loan portfolio credit quality and potential margin normalization as interest rate cycle peaks.

Watch on Earnings
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: Industry benchmark for wholesale pricing trends affecting both acquisition costs and retail pricing powerFederal Funds Rate and 2-year Treasury yield: Direct drivers of CAF funding costs and consumer loan affordabilityConsumer Sentiment Index (University of Michigan): Leading indicator for discretionary purchase decisions in $25,000+ transaction categoryUnemployment rate and initial jobless claims: Credit performance leading indicators as job loss drives loan defaults within 60-90 days
Health Radar
2 strong4 concern
32/100
Liquidity
2.20Strong
Leverage
0.47Strong
Coverage
1.9xConcern
ROE
4.0%Concern
ROIC
0.5%Concern
Cash
$123MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE16 analysts
HOLD
-6.1%downside to target
47/100 conviction
L $26.00
Med $36.00consensus
H $48.00
Buy
16%
Hold
1275%
Sell
319%
1 Buy (6%)12 Hold (75%)3 Sell (19%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
4/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 38 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 2.20 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings Report · Before OpenApr 30, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateJul 28, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 3, 2026
In 96 days
Technicals
Technical SignalsBEARISH
Technicals →
0 Buy6 Sell1 Neutral7 signals
SellNeutralBuy
IndicatorValueSignalStrength
RSI (14)38.4NEUTRAL
23%
SMA 50↓ RES$42.06BEARISH
28%
SMA 200↓ RES$46.32BEARISH
7%
EMA 50$41.80BEARISH
29%
EMA 200$48.25BEARISH
0%
MA Trend50D < 200DDEATH X
22%
MACD-1.25BEARISH
44%
Key Levels
Resistance
SMA 50$42.068.8%
SMA 200$46.3217.2%
Support
None below
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$71.99+87.7%
EMA 200
$48.25+25.8%
EMA 50
$41.80+9.0%
Current
$38.35
52W Low
$30.26-21.1%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$30.2619th %ile$71.99
RSI (14)38.4

Momentum neutral-to-bearish

Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:2
Dist days:6
Edge:+4 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)3.6M
Recent Vol (5D)
3.2M-11%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 13 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2024
$27.7B
$26.6B$28.6B
$2.55
±5%
High8
FY2025
$26.4B
$25.7B$26.8B
-4.8%$3.28+28.3%
±6%
High12
FY2026(current)
$25.7B
$25.2B$26.0B
-2.7%$2.69-17.8%
±3%
High13
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryKMX
Last 8Q
+17.0%avg beat
Beat 5 of 8 quartersMissed 3 Estimates falling
+1%
Q2'24
-1%
Q3'24
+37%
Q4'24
-3%
Q2'25
+19%
Q2'25
-38%
Q3'25
+66%
Q4'25
+55%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
BenchmarkHold
Nov 6
DOWNGRADE
Seaport GlobalBuy → Neutral
Sep 29
DOWNGRADE
OppenheimerOutperform → Perform
Sep 26
DOWNGRADE
WedbushOutperform → Neutral
Sep 25
DOWNGRADE
StephensEqual-Weight → Overweight
Mar 26
UPGRADE
WedbushNeutral → Outperform
Sep 25
UPGRADE
Argus ResearchHold
Jan 5
DOWNGRADE
Seaport GlobalBuy
Apr 26
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
3 Buys/3 SellsNeutral
Oneil Mark FDir
$500K
Oct 2
BUY
Steenrod Mitchell DDir
$91K
Oct 2
BUY
Daniels Jon GEVP, CAF
$109K
Jul 2
SELL
Steenrod Mitchell DDir
$85K
Apr 24
BUY
Tuite TylerSVP & Chief Pr…
$412K
Jan 28
SELL
Mayor-mora Enrique NEVP & CFO
$407K
Jan 15
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
DAVENPORT & Co LLC
616K
2
Nexus Investment Management ULC
465K
3
GAGNON SECURITIES LLC
310K
4
OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/
194K
5
WEALTH ENHANCEMENT ADVISORY SERVICES, LLC
185K
6
OPPENHEIMER & CO INC
181K
7
NEW YORK STATE TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM
127K
8
KIRR MARBACH & CO LLC /IN/
125K
News & Activity

KMX News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

we always knew there had to be a better way to buy used cars. one that would make the process easy and fun. so we created carmax, and we've been changing the way america buys cars since we opened our first store in richmond, virginia in 1993. through hard work and dedication, we've grown from that one store in richmond to more than 150 stores across the country. we are selling almost 600,000 vehicles a year. and the news is buzzing with stories about carmax, the experience we offer our customers, and the work environment we provide for our associates. in fact, we know our associates are fundamental to our success and are the key to our future growth. in fact, carmax is listed on the fortune® 500 list, and we've been named one of fortune's "100 best companies to work for" 11 years running. we're also named as one of training magazine's top training 125 year after year. in 2015, we were also recognized by great place to work® and fortune as one of the 50 best workplaces for diversity

CEO
William Nash
David W. McCreightInterim President, CEO & Independent Director
Cherri HeartVice President & Chief Information Security Officer
Mike FarrisVice President & Chief Operating Officer of CarMax Auto Finance
Peers(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
KMX
$38.35+1.23%$5.5B23.0-824.7%95.5%1500
$393.83-3.12%$2.0T29.8+3296.8%4510.0%1500
$89.28+0.00%$311.7B1500
$130.45-1.28%$303.7B+586.3%1500
$185.20-0.96%$289.4B1500
$142.94+0.00%$280.9B+597.3%1500
$191.26+0.42%$251.5B11.0+652.3%992.0%1500
Sector avg-0.53%21.3+861.6%1865.8%1500