MTN
Next earnings: Jun 4, 2026 · After close
Signal
Mixed11
Price
1
Move+4.11%Strong session
Volume
1
Volume0.8× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 48Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
122.16
Open
120.93
Day Range120.93 – 127.67
120.93
127.67
52W Range118.51 – 175.51
118.51
175.51
15% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
904.3K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
20.3x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.03%
Beta
1.00
Market-like
Performance
1D
+4.11%
5D
+3.82%
1M
+2.54%
3M
-4.43%
6M
-12.45%
YTD
-4.23%
1Y
-8.64%
Best: 1D (+4.11%)Worst: 6M (-12.45%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
59% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E 20x vs ~20x sector
Health
WEAK
CR 0.6 (low) · FCF $7.97/sh
Neutral
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$4.53B
Revenue TTM$2.92B
Net Income TTM$230.55M
Free Cash Flow$286.29M
Gross Margin59.1%
Net Margin7.9%
Operating Margin26.4%
Return on Equity51.9%
Return on Assets4.1%
Debt / Equity10.53
Current Ratio0.62
EPS TTM$6.42
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Season pass sales velocity and pricing during spring selling season (March-May) - indicates forward demand and revenue visibility for upcoming winter

Visitation trends at destination resorts (Vail, Whistler, Park City) versus regional resorts - destination guests spend 3-4x more per visit

Effective ticket price (ETP) - blended revenue per skier visit, driven by mix of pass holders versus day ticket guests and dynamic pricing effectiveness

Snowfall conditions in Colorado Front Range and Tahoe - these regions represent ~40% of total visitation and drive holiday period results

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Destination ski vacations are discretionary purchases with average all-in costs of $3,000-5,000 per family trip. During recessions, visitation shifts from destination resorts (higher margin) to regional day-trip resorts (lower margin), compressing ETP and ancillary spending. The company saw 15-20% visitation declines during 2008-2009 recession. However, season pass pre-sales provide 6-9 month forward visibility and some demand stability, as passes are purchased before economic conditions fully deteriorate. Affluent customer base (median household income $150,000+) provides some insulation versus mass-market leisure.

Interest Rates

Rising rates negatively impact the business through multiple channels: (1) Higher mortgage rates reduce discretionary income for homeowners and dampen second-home purchases near resorts, (2) Increased debt service costs on $3.2B net debt position (21.86x D/E ratio) compress free cash flow, (3) Higher discount rates compress valuation multiples for long-duration assets like ski resorts, (4) Stronger dollar from rate differentials reduces international visitation (Australians, Latin Americans represent 8-10% of destination guests). The company's high leverage magnifies interest rate sensitivity - each 100bp rate increase adds ~$30-35M annual interest expense.

Key Risks

Climate change reducing snowfall reliability and shortening ski seasons - Western US snowpack has declined 15-20% over 40 years, threatening long-term resort viability and requiring increased snowmaking capex

Demographic headwinds as skiing participation rates decline among younger generations - millennials and Gen Z show 20-30% lower participation versus Gen X, requiring significant marketing investment to attract new skiers

Concentration risk in Colorado Front Range and Tahoe regions (~40% of visitation) exposed to single-season weather events or wildfires that close resorts for extended periods

Investor Profile

value - Stock trades at 1.7x sales and 9.1x EV/EBITDA, below historical averages, attracting value investors betting on cyclical recovery in visitation and margin expansion. The 6.3% FCF yield appeals to cash flow-focused investors. However, negative recent returns (-12.3% one-year) and execution concerns have reduced growth investor interest. Seasonal earnings volatility and weather dependency deter risk-averse investors.

Watch on Earnings
Season pass sales units and revenue reported in September earnings (forward indicator for upcoming winter season)Colorado snowpack levels and Tahoe snowfall totals during November-February peak season (NOAA SNOTEL data)Effective ticket price (ETP) trends - blended revenue per skier visit indicating pricing power and guest mixDestination resort visitation as percentage of total visits - higher-margin guest segment
Health Radar
1 strong2 watch3 concern
38/100
Liquidity
0.62Concern
Leverage
10.53Concern
Coverage
4.1xWatch
ROE
51.9%Strong
ROIC
12.2%Watch
Cash
$440MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE24 analysts
HOLD
+26.2%upside to target
L $139.00
Med $160.50consensus
H $234.00
Buy
938%
Hold
1458%
Sell
14%
9 Buy (38%)14 Hold (58%)1 Sell (4%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
0 of 5 signals bullish
3/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 48 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowNeutral
~
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.62 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 2, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateJul 30, 2026
In 90 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 7.8%

-5.0% vs SMA 50 · -12.3% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI47.8
Neutral territory
MACD-2.82
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$175.5+38.0%
EMA 200
$143.3+12.7%
EMA 50
$132.0+3.8%
Current
$127.2
52W Low
$118.5-6.8%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$118.515th %ile$175.5
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
No Clear Setup

Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:2
Dist days:1
Edge:+1 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)798K
Recent Vol (5D)
665K-17%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 9 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$215.5B
$213.7B$218.5B
$11.53
±1%
Moderate4
FY2024
$2.9B
$2.9B$2.9B
-98.7%$6.59-42.8%
±7%
High9
FY2025
$3.0B
$3.0B$3.0B
+2.8%$7.74+17.4%
±3%
High8
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryMTN
Last 8Q
-1.1%avg beat
Beat 3 of 8 quartersMissed 5 Estimates falling
-4%
Q2'24
-10%
Q3'24
+8%
Q4'24
+4%
Q1'25
+5%
Q2'25
-8%
Q3'25
-1%
Q4'25
-3%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
JefferiesBuy
Jan 13
UPGRADE
William BlairMarket Perform
Jun 7
DOWNGRADE
Morgan StanleyEqual-Weight
Jun 7
DOWNGRADE
Piper SandlerOverweight → Neutral
Jun 7
DOWNGRADE
Fox AdvisorsEqual-Weight
Sep 7
DOWNGRADE
Alembic GlobalNeutral
Sep 7
DOWNGRADE
Raymond JamesBuy
Sep 7
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
3 Buys/0 SellsNet Buying
Korch Angela ACFO
$25K
Mar 16
BUY
Katz Robert ADir
$4.9M
Mar 16
BUY
Korch Angela ACFO
$33K
Oct 7
BUY
Financials
Dividends6.98% yield
3 yrs of payments
Annual Yield6.98%
Quarterly Div.$2.2200
Est. Annual / Share$8.88
FrequencyQuarterly
Q2'24
Q4'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q4'25
Q4'25
Q1'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
River Road Asset Management, LLC
504K
2
Marathon Asset Management Ltd
117K
3
Eldred Rock Partners, LLC
82K
4
Nuveen, LLC
59K
5
Hodges Capital Management Inc.
46K
6
Retirement Systems of Alabama
44K
7
CONFLUENCE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC
37K
8
PEREGRINE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
36K
News & Activity

MTN News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

vail resorts is the premier mountain resort company in the world and a leader in luxury, destination-based travel at iconic locations. at vail resorts, our mission is simple – to create the experience of a lifetime for our employees, so they can in turn, provide the experience of a lifetime for our guests. vail resorts is dedicated to delivering extraordinary guest experiences by continuously investing in our team and the infrastructure, systems and training programs that support the employee experience. you’re someone who pushes boundaries and challenges the status quo. you’re brave, ambitious and passionate in everything you do. and we want you on our team. pursue your fullest potential and never settle for less in the quest to deliver extraordinary guest service. join one of the world's 50 most innovative companies as named by fast company, and re-imagine the mountain resort experience with us. welcome to vail resorts. reach your peak. www.vailresortscareers.com

CEO
Robert Katz
Chris SmithSenior Vice President & Chief Information Officer
Gregory Jon SullivanExecutive Vice President, Retail/Rental, Hospitality, and Food & Beverage
Angela KorchExecutive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Peers(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
MTN
$127.18+4.11%$4.5B19.8+274.4%944.6%1500
$396.06+0.57%$2.1T28.7+3296.8%4510.0%1500
$91.86+2.89%$318.3B14.0+318.8%1510.7%1500
$131.91+1.13%$306.2B22.6+586.3%1305.9%1500
$187.37+1.17%$290.5B28.1+862.9%1745.9%1500
$147.85+3.44%$282.1B21.0+597.3%2564.4%1500
$90.67+1.98%$256.7B14.5-591.0%668.4%1500
Sector avg+2.18%21.2+763.6%1892.8%1500