Results are highly cyclical for NGL-PB, so multiple-based fair value is less reliable here.
| FY | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | — | — | — | — | — | — | 25.56 | 24.94 | 26.29 | 20.18 | 18.50 | 24.95 | 32.11 | 30.00 | 25.23 | — | — | — |
| Low | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.10 | 19.87 | 4.20 | 5.30 | 9.84 | 8.95 | 21.25 | 22.87 | 19.99 | — | — | — |
| Adj EPS | -0.24 | 1.04 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1.35 | -0.69 | 0.32 | 0.39 | -1.10 | -1.38 | -0.43 | 0.00 | -2.52 | 0.26 | 1.38E | 1.79E | 1.18E |
| Chg/Yr | — | — | -69% | -100% | — | +4400% | -151% | — | +22% | -382% | — | — | — | — | — | +423% | +30% | -34% |
| Div | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.80 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 1.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.44 | 7.83 | 2.92 | — | — | — |
Fair value (8.5x) multiplies each year's earnings per share by a growth-based multiple: steady growers (5–15% a year) get 15x, faster growers get their growth rate as the multiple (capped at 30x), and slower growers step down below 15x. NGL-PB has grown earnings about -0.0% a year, so the line uses 8.5x.
Earnings are adjusted figures on the same basis analysts forecast, built from reported quarters; years beyond the last completed fiscal year use the analyst consensus (dashed). The verdict calls a stock over- or undervalued only when the price sits more than 10% from the fair value line.