10-Year Treasury Yield — Historical Chart
GS10The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is the world's risk-free rate. It anchors mortgage rates, corporate bond spreads, and equity valuations — a rise in the 10-year mechanically lowers the fair value of long-duration assets.
Related — Monetary Policy & Interest Rates
SOURCE: FEDERAL RESERVE ECONOMIC DATA (FRED) · 0 OBSERVATIONS
The 10-year Treasury yield is the world's benchmark risk-free interest rate. It directly anchors 30-year mortgage rates, corporate bond spreads, and equity valuations — every risky asset is priced as a spread over the 10-year. When the 10-year rises, the present value of future earnings falls, mechanically reducing fair value for long-duration assets.
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Frequently Asked Questions
- What drives the 10-year Treasury yield?
- Three main forces: (1) Fed policy expectations — where markets expect short rates to average over 10 years; (2) Inflation expectations — the term premium investors demand for inflation risk; (3) Supply and demand — Treasury issuance, foreign central bank buying, and domestic institutional flows.
- How does the 10-year yield affect mortgage rates?
- The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is typically priced 1.5–2.5 percentage points above the 10-year Treasury yield. When the 10-year rises, mortgage rates rise with it, cooling housing demand and refinancing activity.
- Why does the 10-year yield matter for tech stocks?
- Growth and technology stocks derive most of their value from future cash flows discounted back to present value. A higher 10-year yield increases the discount rate, mechanically reducing the present value of those future earnings. This is why high-multiple growth stocks often fall sharply when yields spike.
- What is a "normal" 10-year yield?
- Historically, the 10-year yield has averaged around nominal GDP growth (real growth + inflation). At 2% real growth and 2% inflation, a "neutral" 10-year might be around 4%. The multi-decade decline from 15%+ in 1981 to near 0% in 2020 was driven by falling inflation, demographics, and global savings.
Economic data sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Data is updated according to the release schedule of the issuing agency. Provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.