US Consumer Sentiment — Historical Chart
UMCSENTThe University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey measures consumer confidence. A leading indicator of spending intentions. Sharp drops precede discretionary spending pullbacks — particularly in autos and housing.
Related — Leading Economic Indicators
SOURCE: FEDERAL RESERVE ECONOMIC DATA (FRED) · 0 OBSERVATIONS
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about the economy and their personal finances. Because consumer spending drives ~70% of US GDP, sentiment is a leading indicator of economic activity — plunging sentiment often precedes recessions by 1-2 quarters.
Related Economic Indicators
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index?
- The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly survey of approximately 600 US consumers measuring their attitudes toward current financial conditions, future economic prospects, and buying conditions. It has been conducted since 1952 and is one of the most widely tracked consumer confidence gauges.
- What is the difference between current conditions and expectations?
- The headline index combines two sub-indices: the Index of Current Economic Conditions (how consumers feel now) and the Index of Consumer Expectations (how they expect conditions 1-5 years ahead). The expectations sub-index is particularly useful as a leading indicator because it signals future spending intentions.
- How does consumer sentiment affect the stock market?
- Falling sentiment signals consumers may reduce spending, weakening corporate earnings. However, extremely low sentiment readings (below 60) have historically been contrarian buy signals for equities — matching conditions of maximum pessimism that tend to precede market recoveries.
- What is the lowest consumer sentiment reading ever?
- The all-time low was 50.0 in June 2022, surpassing the 57.6 low during the 1980 recession. This historically low reading occurred despite low official unemployment, reflecting the shock of 40-year-high inflation eroding purchasing power.
Economic data sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Data is updated according to the release schedule of the issuing agency. Provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.